Russian casualties in Ukraine.
Mediazona count, updated

In early May, Ukrainian sources reported yet another strike with long-range ATACMS missiles on a concentration of Russian military personnel. They claimed that the attack could have resulted in the deaths of as many as 100 soldiers.

Russian sources, including pro-war Z-bloggers, remained silent on this strike. Previously, similar attacks have sparked heated discussions in this community, with bloggers cautiously berating unnamed commanders for forcing their subordinates to line up in open fields.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out similar strikes in February 2024, when three consecutive formations were hit by HIMARS missiles.

Confirming the exact number of casualties in such large-scale incidents is extremely difficult. This was only possible after the strikes on the missile cruiser Moskva and—to some extent—for the 2023 New Year’s Eve strike on a barracks in Makiivka housing mobilised soldiers from Samara. The Makiivka incident shocked Russian society widely, and the death toll was reported with more clarity. We now know that at least 218 people died in the war that day, and we were able to link the deaths of 141 of them to Makiivka. This detail was sometimes explicitly stated in the obituary, but more often the evidence was indirect.

Verifying the remaining losses presents numerous difficulties: obituaries are published with long delays, the causes of deaths are rarely reported, and the dates of death are often not specified. Linking a particular serviceman’s death to a particular strike is extremely hard and may take over six months.

Losses from strikes on headquarters and command posts are somewhat easier to confirm, as more information typically gets published regarding officers’ deaths. Based on obituaries, we can confirm that several officers were killed in a strike on the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment command post in Bakhmut and on the headquarters in Luhansk on April 20, 2024.

In addition, an obituary emerged for an officer who served in an anti-aircraft missile regiment in Crimea, operating the S-400 Triumf mobile surface-to-air missile system. Ukraine claimed that an S-400 system was destroyed by an ATACMS missile in Dzhankoi in April 2024.

What we know about the casualties

The distribution of casualties across Russian regions is presented in absolute figures, these numbers have not been adjusted in relation to regional population sizes or the concentration of military units.

Readers can view either overall losses or those specific to different branches of the armed forces. Additionally, there is information regarding the native regions of the mobilised soldiers.

In most cases, the branch of service or the way the deceased ended up in the army (mobilized, volunteer, inmate, etc.) can be determined from the death reports or indirectly, through uniform or sleeve patches in photos.

We compared these groups of military personnel in a separate chart to provide a clearer picture of the distribution of casualties among different categories of soldiers.

Since the summer, volunteer units bore the brunt of casualties, a stark contrast to the war’s initial phase. During the winter and early spring, the heaviest losses were sustained by the Airborne Forces, followed by the Motorised Rifle Troops.

By the end of 2022 and entering the new year, there was a marked increase in fatalities among prisoners conscripted into the Wagner PMC. These conscripts were formed into “assault groups” for offensives against Ukrainian positions near Bakhmut.

By March 2023, these prisoners represented the largest single category of losses in the conflict. Following the assault on Bakhmut, there have been no reported instances of mass deployment of these prisoner units.

As of January 19, the confirmed death toll among Russian army officers and other security forces comes close to 3,500, with 403 of these officers being of Lieutenant Colonel rank or higher.

Officers killed in Ukraine

As of today, official confirmation has been received regarding the deaths of two deputy army commanders: Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky of the 41st Army, and Major General Vladimir Frolov of the 8th Army.

In late May 2022, retired Major General Kanamat Botashev, 63, a former fighter pilot, was killed, presumably having volunteered for combat. Additionally, Captain 1st Rank Andrei Paliy, the deputy commander of the Black Sea Fleet, was also reported among the casualties. On June 5, 2022, the death of Major General Roman Kutuzov was reported.

In June 2023, the death of Major General Sergei Goryachev was announced. He served as the chief of staff for the 35th Combined Arms Army, responsible for confronting the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.

By July 2023, the death of the first Lieutenant General, Oleg Tsokov, deputy commander of the Southern Military District, was confirmed.

In November 2023, Major General Vladimir Zavadsky was killed. He served as the deputy commander of the 14th Army Corps.

Over 40,500 reports specify the dates of military personnel deaths. While the daily loss figures derived from this data may not accurately reflect the total casualties, they provide an indication of the intensity of the fighting on specific days.

It is important to note that the most recent data is likely to be incomplete and subject to significant revisions in the future.

In 44,000 of the casualty reports, the ages of the deceased are mentioned. In the initial six months of the conflict, characterized by the deployment of regular military forces without the inclusion of volunteers, mobilised troops, or prisoners, the most significant number of fatalities occurred in the 21–23 age group.

The age profile diverges notably for volunteers and mobilised soldiers. Those who volunteer for combat service are predominantly in the age bracket of 30–35 years or older. The mobilised personnel are generally over the age of 25.