Stock market today: US stocks close lower as early rate cut hopes fade

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US stocks dipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell put a chill on prospects for an early interest rate cut, raising the stakes for a packed week of corporate earnings to keep the recent rally alive.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ended the session down 0.3%, signaling a slight pullback from the benchmark's record-setting run. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed about 0.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.2%.

Stocks slumped after a rollercoaster week that ended in weekly wins thanks to a blowout January jobs report and strong high-profile earnings updates. Those high spirits took a knock after Powell, in a "60 Minutes" interview that aired Sunday, doubled down on his midweek message that the central bank will tread cautiously in deciding when to cut rates. He said the "danger of moving too soon is the job's not quite done" in quelling inflation.

That prompted traders to scale back their bets on rate cuts — not just for March, but in May too, per the CME FedWatch Tool. US bonds sank, with the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) rising to 4.17%.

Investors are now looking to quarterly results this week for inspiration after triumphant reports from Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN) last week helped send stocks into rally mode and with little on the economic docket.

McDonald's (MCD), the highlight on Monday's docket, saw shares fell more than 3% after its sales fell short of Wall Street estimates.

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  • S&P 500 slips from record high as March rate cut hopes fade

    US stocks dipped on Monday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell squashed hopes of a Fed rate cut in March.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) ended the session down 0.3% in a pullback from the benchmark's record-setting run. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shed about 0.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell 0.2%.

    Materials, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary stocks fell while Healthcare and Technology stocks eked out gains.

    Nvidia (NVDA) closed at a new record high on Monday while Apple (AAPL) gained more than 1%.

    In an interview on "60 Minutes" on Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on the unlikeness that the Federal Reserve will slash the fed funds rate in March.

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury (^TNX) rose to a session high of 1.77% as investors absorbed the Federal Reserve's message.

  • Treasury yields spike as chance of March rate cut dims

    Ten-year Treasury yields (^TNX) spiked to a session high of 1.77% amid slim chances of a Fed rate cut in March.

    The markets had priced in the anticipation of a rate cut, sending the major averages to all-time highs last week.

    In a CBS interview on "60 Minutes" on Sunday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell doubled down on the unlikeness that the Federal Reserve will slash the fed funds rate in March.

    Powell said the “danger of moving too soon is that the job’s not quite done, and that the really good readings we’ve had for the last six months somehow turn out not to be a true indicator of where inflation’s heading."

    The ISM services sector reading for January released on Monday showed a pickup in growth, further diminishing the chance of a rate cut in March.

  • Key items to watch when Ford reports Q4 results

    Ford (F) is on deck to report results for the fourth quarter and the full year after the bell on Tuesday, with its changing EV game plan in focus as the company shifts to hybrid production.

    The results come on the heels of GM's strong results and profit guidance that indicated strength in the overall US auto sector.

    Read more here from Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian.

  • Nvidia touches new highs helping tech sector stay in green

    The S&P 500 Tech Sector ETF (XLK) was up about 0.2% on Monday as Nvidia (NVDA) pushed to all-time highs.

    Shares of the semiconductor giant jumped about 4%, touching an all-time high of $694.97 after a price target raise from Goldman Sachs analysts.

    Apple (AAPL) stock also gained on Monday as analysts weighed in on the tech giant's launch of the Vision Pro headset, dubbed by Apple as a spatial computer.

    Materials (XLB), Real Estate (XLRE), and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stocks were laggards on Monday as the major averages dipped.

    Sector heat map on Monday Feb 5
    Sector heat map on Monday Feb 5
  • Oil recovers session losses, flips into green territory

    Oil futures flipped into green territory on Monday after sinking as much as 1% earlier in the session.

    West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) recovered earlier losses to hover above $72 per barrel, while Brent (BZ=F) futures also advanced near $78 per barrel.

    Crude had been under pressure earlier on Monday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Federal Reserve was unlikely to cut rate in March. Lower interest rates spur economic activity, which is typically bullish for oil demand.

    A US push for a truce in the Middle East also kept prices in red territory earlier in the session.

    "Given the record production of US oil and no real supply losses in Middle East crude, most of the Geopolitical price premiums are being priced out," Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial, said in a note on Monday.

  • Trending tickers on Monday

    Tesla (TSLA)

    Tesla stock was the No. 1 trending ticker on Yahoo Finance on Monday as shares fell as much as 6%. Shares of the EV maker have been on a downward trend this year, down more than 27% year to date.

    McDonald's (MCD)

    Shares of the fast food chain slumped more than 4% following mixed fourth quarter earnings results. McDonald's same-store sales growth fell below Wall Street expectations as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East hindered the fast food chain's exposure in other regions and global expansion plans.

    Nvidia (NVDA)

    Shares of the semiconductor giant touched new highs after Goldman Sachs analyst Toshiya Hari raised the firm's price target on chipmaking giant Nvidia (NVDA) from $625 to $800 per share.

    Hari cited "sustained strength" and optimism for the company's growth potential amid an artificial intelligence boom.

    Nvidia stock gained more than 4% on Monday.

  • Commercial real estate a 'manageable' problem but some banks will close: Powell

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is predicting that more small banks will likely close or merge due to commercial real estate weaknesses, but that the problem is ultimately "manageable."

    Powell's comments during a "60 Minutes interview were his first remarks about the industry following a new bout of turmoil cascading through regional bank stocks.

    As Yahoo Finance's David Hollerith reports, regional banks are particularly vulnerable to commercial real estate because they hold a lot more exposure to those properties than larger rivals.

    Read more here.

  • Stock losses accelerate

    Stock losses accelerated during mid-morning trading on Monday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) lagging the most among the major averages, down about 400 points, or more than 1%.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell as much as 7%, pulling back from the benchmark's record-setting run, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) dropped almost 1%.

    McDonald's (MCD) stock slid more than 3% after the fast food chain's same-store sales missed Wall Street estimates.

    Meta (META) shares pulled back more than 2% after rallying 20% on Friday following the social media company's quarterly results.

    Tesla stock (TSLA) was down more than 6% during trading.

  • Market bulls don't think investors trimming March rate cuts will matter that much

    Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has made clear over several public appearances in the last week that it's unlikely the central bank cuts interest rates in March.

    But stock market bulls aren't worried about the shift back in rate cut expectations. And that has more to do with what Powell has been saying about strong economic data.

    The Fed chair noted that a strong labor market and economic growth are no longer chief concerns for the Fed in when it will cut rates.

    "We’re not looking for a weaker labor market," Powell said on Jan. 31. "We’re looking for inflation to continue to come down, as it has been coming down for the last six months."

    In other words, good economic news should no longer be perceived as “bad” just because it could mean another Fed interest rate hike is coming. Instead, good economic news is simply good news for the stock market because it means business activity is picking up. And in the long run, that's usually a welcome sign for investors.

    "From a macroeconomic perspective, generally speaking, the US economy is the most important driver of equity performance broadly," Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider told Yahoo Finance last month.

    He added, "I don't think it matters very much whether the Fed starts to cut in March or May or June. The key dynamic is that the Fed is incentivizing on-the-margin investors to move out of cash and reducing the cost of capital environment for small businesses that rely frequently on outside financing."

    Snider confirmed with Yahoo Finance following Wednesday's Fed meeting that nothing Powell said in the Fed press conference changes his thinking. He pointed to Goldman's economics team's Fed forecast update after the January Fed meeting. Goldman now sees the first interest rate cut in May instead of March, but maintained a call for eight 25 basis point rate cuts in the next two years.

    This narrative has played out in consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg, too. As of Monday, the market projected interest rates to end 2024 around 4% despite Powell's comments and a strong jobs report last week. That's nearly the same level as the prior two months.

    In aggregate, this can be taken to mean that the story for 2024 and even 2025, at least in the view of some bullish strategists, hasn't changed. If the Fed cuts rates because inflation is falling, and not because signs of weakness in the economy, then the bull case for stocks remains in tact.

  • Stocks open lower as Powell dashes hopes of early rate cuts

    US stock dipped on Monday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell dampened hopes of an early rate cut.

    The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 0.2%, signaling a pullback from the benchmark's record-setting run.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) slid 0.3%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) dropped almost 0.1%.

    McDonald's (MCD) disappointed investors this morning after quarterly sales fell short of Wall Street estimates.

    Shares of Snapchat parent company Snap (SNAP) rose about 2% after the company announced it would cut about 10% of its global workforce.

    Meta (META) shares opened 1% lower gaining a whopping 20% on Friday following the social media giant’s quarterly results.

  • Powell makes his pitch to America

    A few days after dashing investor hopes for a March rate cut, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made a broader pitch, sitting down with Scott Pelley on CBS's "60 Minutes" to outline his case for what the Federal Reserve has done and what's next for the central bank.

    For investors following this Fed cycle closely, much of what Powell said was a reiteration of the most revelatory parts of Wednesday's press conference.

    For the more mainstream audience the Fed is hoping to reach by doing a "60 Minutes" sit-down, we think two notes from Powell stand out.

    The first is Powell's note on the difference between inflation and the price level of goods and services in the economy, which are often conflated by consumers. (Emphasis added, transcript via Bloomberg.)

    PELLEY: Inflation is one thing. Prices are another. And I wonder if there’s any reason to believe that people will see the prices of things decline?

    POWELL: So, the prices of some things will decline. Others will go up. But we don’t expect to see a decline in the overall price level. That doesn’t tend to happen in economies, except in very negative circumstances. What you will see, though, is inflation coming down.

    People are experiencing high prices. If you think about the basic necessities, things like, you know, bread and milk and eggs and meats of various kinds, if you look back, prices are substantially higher than they were before the pandemic. And so, we think that’s a big reason why people are, have been relatively dissatisfied with what is otherwise a pretty good economy.

    A professional investing public that is, on balance, more familiar with the logic of economics than the average American knows that prices don't go down, and that inflation is about the rate of change, not the level. Powell's articulation for a large audience likely doesn't satisfy folks, but may help better frame that conversation around the dinner table. After all, workers don't expect to see their pay go down year to year.

    And then on housing:

    PELLEY: I have spoken to many young couples recently who have said they can’t imagine how they could afford a mortgage today. What do you say to them?

    POWELL: Well, Congress has given us the job of providing maximum employment and price stability. And that means when inflation comes, when high inflation really threatens to become persistent, we use our tools to bring down inflation. It’s very important for that young couple — and particularly for younger couples starting out who may not have great financial means, that we succeed in this effort.

    And we will. We will do so. But what that means is that interest-sensitive spending like mortgages and buying, you know, durable goods and things like that, that’s going to be expensive for a while. That’s going to slow the economy down. But this is all part of getting back to a place of price stability when interest rates can be low again on a sustainable basis.

    PELLEY: You’re asking the American people for patience?

    POWELL: Yes. And I think people have been patient and have been through a pretty difficult time. And I think now we’re coming through that time and starting to feel a little bit better about things. Mortgage rates have come down in anticipation, come down a bit in anticipation of lower rates.

    But, you know, we do what we’re charged to do when we need to do it. And that was to try to slow the economy down a bit. And the interest to get inflation down in the interest-sensitive areas, particularly housing are, you know, a good example of the kinds of things that do slow down when rates go up.

    Not an answer that is likely to satisfy most aspiring homeowners.

    But at least an honest one.

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