On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) likely will provide continuing evidence that the U.S. job market is healthy. The report will be the first major indicator of 2Q economic activity. It is sure to get extra scrutiny after last week's report on 1Q GDP showed a deceleration in growth to a below-consensus 1.6%, with slower consumer spending. Persistent signs of inflation in the GDP report pushed expectations for rate-relief from the Fed out to September. One reason the April jobs report will be under a microscope was articulated by economist Claudia Sahm in a November 2023 post on the social media site X. "Relatively small increases in the unemployment rate, even starting from low levels, typically signal a recession." That underlies her Sahm Rule recession indicator, which posits that an economy is likely to enter a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 50 basis points (bps) or more from its prior 12-month low (currently 3.5%). The St. Louis Fed tracks the real-time Sahm Rule on its FRED database. The recession indicator is at 0.30, which is below the critical 0.50. Based on our calculations, unemployment would need to rise to 4.3% to trigger the indicator. While this is well above the 3.8% we expect, the market will be considering future scenarios because the stakes are so high and because Core PCE for March (reported Friday) remained belligerent at 80 basis points above the Fed's 2% inflation target. That could cause the Fed to think twice about preventative stimulus. We expect Friday's employment report to show that April payroll growth moderated to a still-healthy 200,000, from 303,000 in March. We expect that growth in average hourly earnings remained at 4.1%, and average hours worked stayed at 34.2. The best news might be that payrolls remained strong, with softer wage growth cooling inflation fears. The worst news, which we don't expect, would be signs of stagflation -- weak payrolls and accelerating wage growth.

Netflix is a video-on-demand distributor of movies and television shows over the internet worldwide (except China and a few other countries). Subscribers have access to the Netflix content library for a fixed monthly subscription fee. The company offers several service tiers, including a discount advertising-supported service. Netflix derives 59% of its revenue from outside the U.S.

Monday Tee Up: Here Comes Big Tech

Netflix’s relatively simple business model involves only one business, its streaming service. It has the biggest television entertainment subscriber base in both the United States and the collective international market, with almost 250 million subscribers globally. Netflix has exposure to nearly the entire global population outside of China. The firm has traditionally avoided live programming or sports content, instead focusing on on-demand access to episodic television, movies, and documentaries. The firm recently began introducing ad-supported subscription plans, giving the firm exposure to the advertising market in addition to the subscription fees that have historically accounted for nearly all its revenue.