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Sar2593 = small impactor
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Hello all,
I strongly urge European observers to take a look for this object, currently on NEOCP. It should come in at 21:23 UTC at latitude +70.47, longitude W 10.40, plus or minus a few dozen km. That's about forty minutes from "right now", a bit north of Iceland. MPC ephemerides don't include earth's gravity and are about 10' north of the actual position right now. Find_Orb, unfortunately, defaults to an epoch after the impact. Load up the astrometry in Find_Orb, hit 'e', and enter 11.5 (to set the epoch back half a day, before impact). Then hit 'f', and you'll have the correct orbit and can generate ephemerides. Good luck! -- Bill |
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Hello all,
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Some data came in from (G02) in Slovakia, giving us some nice parallax relative to the initial data from (K88) in Hungary, and confirming it's for-real. Map of impact location : https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/Sar2593.png about a hundred km south-southwest of Jan Mayen land, which I think has a small research station on it. You can go to https://www.projectpluto.com/ephem.htm enter object name Sar2593, set desired ephemeris info, and get accurate ephemerides. Obligatory disclaimer : this thing is maybe a meter or two across. The folks on Jan Mayen will get to see a nice flash on their horizon. Other than that, it's similar to the other three impactors we've tracked before impact in 2008, 2014, and 2018 : mostly harmless. -- Bill On 3/11/22 15:46, Bill Gray wrote:
Hello all, |
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from 104 observer object.very difficult to measure Il giorno ven 11 mar 2022 alle ore 21:46 Bill J. Gray <pluto@...> ha scritto: Hello all, --
----------------------- Paolo Bacci (108205) B09 backman.altervista.org B33 www.astrofilialtavaldera.it 104 www.gamp-pt.net UAI - www.uai.it |
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Hi all, The impact has taken place. Hopefully infrasound stations picked it up so we can get some more data on this object. Peculiarly it was on a fairly eccentric Tj<3 orbit before impact: Perihelion 2022 Apr 10.572738 +/- 0.0196 TT = 13:44:44 (JD 2459680.072738) Epoch 2022 Mar 11.85 TT = JDT 2459650.35 Earth MOID: 0.0001 Ju: 0.5413 M 354.51510248 +/- 0.06 (J2000 ecliptic) Find_Orb n 0.18453540 +/- 0.00205 Peri. 222.42979 +/- 0.008 a 3.05550442 +/- 0.0226 Node 350.98759 +/- 0.000015 e 0.7102395 +/- 0.00222 Incl. 10.67744 +/- 0.023 P 5.34 H 32.3 G 0.15 U 8.6 q 0.88536435 +/- 0.000241 Q 5.22564450 +/- 0.046 From 42 observations 2022 Mar. 11 (83.4 min); mean residual 0".75 I would guess it came from the 9:4 Kirkwood gap at 3.031 AU. ~Sam
On Friday, March 11, 2022, 04:28:05 PM EST, Paolo Bacci <b09.backman@...> wrote:
from 104 observer object.very difficult to measure Il giorno ven 11 mar 2022 alle ore 21:46 Bill J. Gray <pluto@...> ha scritto: Hello all, --
----------------------- Paolo Bacci (108205) B09 backman.altervista.org B33 www.astrofilialtavaldera.it 104 www.gamp-pt.net UAI - www.uai.it |
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Given the aphelion distance, the size may be closer to 2 meters since objects that far out tend to have lower reflectivity. --Rob
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-----Original Message-----
From: mpml@groups.io <mpml@groups.io> On Behalf Of Bill J. Gray Sent: Friday, March 11, 2022 1:12 PM To: MPML Groups.io <mpml@groups.io> Subject: EXTERNAL: Re: {MPML} Sar2593 = small impactor Hello all, Some data came in from (G02) in Slovakia, giving us some nice parallax relative to the initial data from (K88) in Hungary, and confirming it's for-real. Map of impact location : https://urldefense.us/v3/__https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/Sar2593.png__;!!Az_Xe1LHMyBq19w!ff4VVSCYy4NNW47ZAWUl-0ocKVjpLQln9paZiJlQ5cNaO26j8TxTOCzVy43oLU-uh6UH$ about a hundred km south-southwest of Jan Mayen land, which I think has a small research station on it. You can go to https://urldefense.us/v3/__https://www.projectpluto.com/ephem.htm__;!!Az_Xe1LHMyBq19w!ff4VVSCYy4NNW47ZAWUl-0ocKVjpLQln9paZiJlQ5cNaO26j8TxTOCzVy43oLYxyQbXJ$ enter object name Sar2593, set desired ephemeris info, and get accurate ephemerides. Obligatory disclaimer : this thing is maybe a meter or two across. The folks on Jan Mayen will get to see a nice flash on their horizon. Other than that, it's similar to the other three impactors we've tracked before impact in 2008, 2014, and 2018 : mostly harmless. -- Bill On 3/11/22 15:46, Bill Gray wrote: Hello all, |
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Small correction to my earlier post: Earth drastically perturbed it just prior to impact. Here was its proper pre-impact orbit: Perihelion 2022 Apr 10.807908 +/- 0.0216 TT = 19:23:23 (JD 2459680.307908) Epoch 2021 Jan 1.0 TT = JDT 2459215.5 Earth MOID: 0.0004 Ju: 0.6622 M 263.64435902 +/- 1.0 (J2000 ecliptic) Find_Orb n 0.20730206 +/- 0.00222 Peri. 222.43057 +/- 0.009 a 2.82748488 +/- 0.0202 Node 351.00692 +/- 0.000028 e 0.6863153 +/- 0.00233 Incl. 10.42040 +/- 0.024 P 4.75 H 32.3 G 0.15 U 8.6 q 0.88693873 +/- 0.000258 Q 4.76803103 +/- 0.0411 From 42 observations 2022 Mar. 11 (83.4 min); mean residual 0".75 Much more in line with a 5:2 kirkwood gap (2.825 AU) orbit. I don't think it should be treated like an exceptionally low-albedo asteroid in this case - more likely a typical C-type. ~Sam
On Friday, March 11, 2022, 04:31:36 PM EST, Rob Matson via groups.io <robert.d.matson@...> wrote:
Given the aphelion distance, the size may be closer to 2 meters since objects that far out tend to have lower reflectivity. --Rob -----Original Message----- Sent: Friday, March 11, 2022 1:12 PM To: MPML Groups.io <mpml@groups.io> Subject: EXTERNAL: Re: {MPML} Sar2593 = small impactor Hello all, Some data came in from (G02) in Slovakia, giving us some nice parallax relative to the initial data from (K88) in Hungary, and confirming it's for-real. Map of impact location : about a hundred km south-southwest of Jan Mayen land, which I think has a small research station on it. You can go to enter object name Sar2593, set desired ephemeris info, and get accurate ephemerides. Obligatory disclaimer : this thing is maybe a meter or two across. The folks on Jan Mayen will get to see a nice flash on their horizon. Other than that, it's similar to the other three impactors we've tracked before impact in 2008, 2014, and 2018 : mostly harmless. -- Bill On 3/11/22 15:46, Bill Gray wrote: > Hello all, > > I strongly urge European observers to take a look for this object, > currently on NEOCP. It should come in at 21:23 UTC at latitude > +70.47, longitude W 10.40, plus or minus a few dozen km. That's > about forty minutes from "right now", a bit north of Iceland. > > MPC ephemerides don't include earth's gravity and are about 10' > north of the actual position right now. Find_Orb, unfortunately, > defaults to an epoch after the impact. > > Load up the astrometry in Find_Orb, hit 'e', and enter 11.5 (to > set the epoch back half a day, before impact). Then hit 'f', and > you'll have the correct orbit and can generate ephemerides. > > Good luck! > > -- Bill |
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Waiting infrasound data. Perhaps some trace in Meteosat 11 El El vie, 11 de marzo de 2022 a la(s) 15:30, Guy Wells FRAS <rasskipper@...> escribió: Unfortunately cloudy at Z80. Still, quite exciting nonetheless. --
-- Gonzalo Blasco Gil |
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Hi Paolo,
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The image got stripped; I've put it at https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/ds9_10.png Yeah, that'd be a tough one to measure! The computed motion was about 65" per second, with the object about 12300 km away. But it may be the only data we get aside from the observations from (K88) and (G02), and you're about a thousand kilometers from both of them. So your parallax adds some good info here. -- Bill On 3/11/22 16:27, Paolo Bacci wrote:
from 104 observer object.very difficult to measure |
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Hi Bill, Paolo,
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We also got it at N88 (NW China)! Hopefully this helps refining the orbit. The object is also announced as 2022 EB5: https://www.minorplanetcenter.net/mpec/K22/K22EH8.html. Unfortunately the N88 observations did not make it until the object has been MPEC'ed. Best, Quanzhi == Sar2593 tC2022 03 11.87737 09 04 41.41 +42 57 54.5 14.5 G N88 Sar2593 tC2022 03 11.87764 09 03 05.08 +42 59 25.5 N88 Sar2593 tC2022 03 11.87792 09 01 25.90 +43 00 55.4 N88 On 3/11/22 16:42, Bill J. Gray wrote:
Hi Paolo, --
(*) If this email arrives outside your working hours, please don't feel obligated to respond until your normal working hours. -- Ye Quanzhi (QZ) Assistant Research Scientist Department of Astronomy University of Maryland http://www.astro.umd.edu/~qye/ |
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Infrasound detection early results:
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-george On Mar 11, 2022, at 2:39 PM, Quanzhi Ye <qye@...> wrote:
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There have been a few reports on Twitter of a bright flash in Iceland. On Fri, Mar 11, 2022 at 6:01 PM George Herbert <george.herbert@...> wrote:
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Infrasound detection early resultsHmm, interesting discrepancy in impact time. The Scout prediction: MIN_IMP_TIME = 2022-03-11 21:23:52 TDB MAX_IMP_TIME = 2022-03-11 21:23:56 TDB The infrasound extrapolation: Infrasound detection from 2022 EB5 impact off the coast of Iceland at I37NO between 2223-2227 UTC. Below is I18DK infrasound data in Greenland. Arrival near 2340 UTC. An hour difference? |
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Isn't this time discrepancy just a question of speed of sound? Le sam. 12 mars 2022 12:29, David Tholen <tholen@...> a écrit : > Infrasound detection early results |
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There is this twit reporting a Meteosat 10? Capture at 21.28UTC . But there is no much reference about the published image , the satellite used or the bandwith. Has anyone checked or analyzed this image? — Gonzalo El El sáb, 12 de marzo de 2022 a la(s) 8:17, David Tholen <tholen@...> escribió: > Isn't this time discrepancy just a question of speed of sound? --
-- Gonzalo Blasco Gil |
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Hi Gonzalo, These images should be found from Eumetview although I can't find the image they claim. I'd say the image is pretty suspect though. Even with projected altitude, the location in the image is almost 1000 km from the impact. I find it difficult to imagine that perspective could move it this far. ~Sam
On Saturday, March 12, 2022, 11:55:17 AM EST, Gonzalo Blasco <gblasco@...> wrote:
There is this twit reporting a Meteosat 10? Capture at 21.28UTC . But there is no much reference about the published image , the satellite used or the bandwith. Has anyone checked or analyzed this image? — Gonzalo El El sáb, 12 de marzo de 2022 a la(s) 8:17, David Tholen <tholen@...> escribió: > Isn't this time discrepancy just a question of speed of sound? --
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Gonzalo Blasco Gil |
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A Twitter user posted this video. Perhaps? Not much motion. I can't rule out an aircraft on approach. Seems like it is on the wrong side of the clouds, but might be bright enough to shine through thin clouds. https://twitter.com/tvxtra/status/1503147101752074249On Sat, Mar 12, 2022 at 1:04 PM Sam Deen via groups.io <planetaryscience=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:
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Ground location 64.147710°N 21.923183°W · 5.18 m; Rekyavik harbor pathway. Bearing about 355 degrees (approximate).
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-george On Mar 13, 2022, at 8:01 PM, tony873004 <tony@...> wrote:
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Paolo Bacci
Guy Wells FRAS
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