Aaron Judge is a real mystery man, but there are a few things we do know about him. He’s a terrific ballplayer, with the ability to thrive in his star turn, and he’s the possessor of an even temperament and an engaging smile.
It’s a bit shocking we really haven’t much of a clue about him even after a half-decade in the country’s alleged media capital, beyond that glorious stat line that shows a minimum OPS-plus of 143 in each of his five full seasons and the city-held belief he should have won the MVP in that memorable year of 2017.
But in failed contract extension talks with the Yankees that, true to his nature, were kept quiet up until Friday morning, when they fell apart, we finally did learn a couple of relevant things about Judge.
One, he’s a gambler. Not as in the fifty-bucks-a-hand blackjack player. But as in the legendary, larger-than-life whale, the kind who gets his own penthouse at Caesar’s Palace sense.
Two, he has enormous confidence in his own abilities — not just to play the game, but also to stay healthy and on the field.
Yankees general manager Brian Cashman revealed the Yankees’ offer to Judge was for an extension at $30.5 million a year over seven years on top of the $19M or so they will pay him this year, putting the bid at $233M plus over eight years. I say “plus” because they offered some minor adjustments, including acceding to his $21M wish for this year to bring it to $235M.
Cashman didn’t say so, but word is the Yankees also told the Judge camp of their willingness to consider an opt-out or two, which often greatly enhances a contract’s value.
Regardless, it turns out he and the Yankees weren’t in the same ballpark.
Judge, according to multiple sources, countered the Yankees’ offer at nine or 10 years at $36M a year for up to $360M. (Someone close to Judge denied that.)
Mike Trout’s record extension was for 10 years at $36M for $360M.
Confidence is a wonderful thing, and it has helped get Judge to where he is, which is one of the best five or six players in the game, when healthy. But let’s face it, he isn’t Trout. While it might be sacrilege to say it in New York, Trout is basically Mickey Mantle.
Judge truly is a great player, and he surely gets extra points for the kind of star quality that brings out his own chambers. But he hasn’t won three MVPs, as Trout has. He isn’t the consensus best player in the game, as Trout is. And let’s face it, he hasn’t stayed nearly as healthy as Trout has.
After a survey of agents, the Yankees’ offer was deemed solid. The reaction wasn’t unanimous, but was generally positive. One agent saw it as a little light in the AAV, but almost all thought it was certainly worth talking about.
We don’t know of course what Judge’s agent, Page Odle, thinks, as he is the Greta Garbo of agents. But one competing agent did give him a tip of the cap for taking this gigantic risk of an $11M commission when Odle’s stable consists of Secretariat and mostly a string of maiden claimers.
While Judge is great, and may be getting even better — his whiff rate was down last year and his hard-hit rate was up — his history includes missed games. He was second and fourth in the MVP voting in two of his five full seasons, but in the other three, he played 63 percent of the Yankees’ games.
“That’s a very fair offer considering the durability factor,” one prominent agent said.
“Lot of downside risk [to rejecting the offer],” said another agent.
Of course, one person’s fair offer is another’s non-starter. And let’s face it, Judge didn’t think the Yankees came especially close.
The word is, Judge asked for almost exactly $100 million more than the Yankees offered. That’s quite a gap.
Cashman, upon revealing the Yankees offer, admitted “we are all disappointed” in the failure to sign Judge. Beyond a disappointment, if they fail to bridge their enormous gap after the year, it’ll be quite a loss. Judge is not only their best position player, but he is a star.
The Yankees already have been outflanked by the perennial little brothers in Queens in terms of star power, and Judge sells more T-shirts and jerseys than many Yankees combined. He is bigger than life, and likely their most popular player since the iconic Derek Jeter, who battled with the Yankees over dollars, but ultimately understood he was better off as a lifetime Yankee.
Jeter was as quiet and close-to-the-vest as Judge is, but we knew more about Jetes, as he engendered considerable tabloid interest. He also had the good sense to stick around for 20 years, as some part of his star was tied up in pinstripes.
The hope is there’s still some chance for Judge to at least make it into his second decade in The Bronx. If not, the Judge’s Chambers may have to become a traveling band. Gone from the right-field bleachers at Yankee Stadium, it just wouldn’t be the same. It’s their loss. And ours.
And it just might be Judge’s loss, too.
