When it comes to the ocean of competition, some major-league teams won’t go near the water. Others barely dip in their toe. And then there are the Padres, sprinting into the surf and doing triple somersaults.
It’s what we want, right? A team — a small-market team, mind you — going all-out to win, even though a more talented, more expensive team plays in the same division. Fans in Pittsburgh, Baltimore and some larger major-league cities would love their clubs to operate as aggressively the Padres, who are locking up their 22-year-old superstar rather than starting their countdown to trading him. And yet, there’s a danger here, and it can’t be dismissed, even in the giddy elation of Fernando Tatis Jr.’s 14-year, $340 million extension.
Advertisement
How the heck are the Padres going to sustain this?
The team’s previous record Opening Day payroll was $108.4 million in 2015. The Tatis extension, which reportedly includes a signing bonus of more than $10 million, figures to push the Padres’ 2021 commitments past $180 million, nearly double what they were in the last full major-league season, 2019.
The sudden jump, amid the financial uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic, is almost directly attributable to Peter Seidler’s ascent in November to chairman of the team’s ownership group. Seidler’s predecessor, Ron Fowler, is a member and former chairman of the league’s Labor Policy Committee, whose mission, in part, is effectively to hold down salaries. True, the Padres under Fowler signed first baseman Eric Hosmer for $144 million and third baseman Manny Machado for $300 million. But the ramp-up this offseason is all Seidler, with a push from general manager A.J. Preller.
And the plan is not without a certain logic.
The Padres have reached the postseason only six times in their 52-year history, and only once in back-to-back seasons. Their one period of sustained success was in 2005-06, and both times the Pads were knocked out by the Cardinals in the Division Series, winning only one game. As a franchise, they’ve been the equivalent of a .240 hitter who gets hot for a week, maybe two, then settles back into mediocrity.
Seidler, who took control with the team coming off its first postseason appearance since 2006, clearly is trying to build momentum. By the standards of Major League Baseball in 2021, his approach is almost radical. He’s spending money in an attempt to make money, figuring that if he builds a perennial contender, it will translate to greater ticket sales, increased advertising and more lucrative sponsorships. Remember: The NFL Chargers are gone, and the Padres are San Diego’s only major professional sports team.
Advertisement
The problem is, the Padres have drawn 3 million fans only once, in 2004, the first year of Petco Park. Their local television contract, which runs through 2031, includes only modest annual increases, sources say. And the team’s development of East Village Quarter outside of Petco might be 10 years away from giving the team a financial boost — and even then, it is not expected to be as profitable as, say, The Battery Atlanta outside of SunTrust Park.
Then there are the dark questions facing the industry: Coming off a 60-game season with no fans, how much will the pandemic restrict attendance at Petco as the league returns to a 162-game season? What will be the effect of a lockout if the players and owners do not reach a new collective bargaining agreement before the current deal expires on Dec. 1? Is it possible the Padres might indeed become the competitive powerhouse Seidler envisions without realizing the economic benefits?
Seidler might be willing to fund losses. Maybe he will find new investors. But even before factoring in Tatis’ new, backloaded deal, the Padres’ projected commitments of $135.8 million in 2022 and $99.8 million in ’23 are above where their payrolls generally have been historically. In 2024, they’re already at $55.3 million for Machado, Hosmer and infielder Ha-Seong Kim, and that’s before factoring in what Tatis will earn in what would have been his last year of arbitration.
Preller needed to tear down after a similar but poorly executed buildup in 2015-16. This push, too, might last only two or three years before a necessary retrenchment. Right-hander Yu Darvish, lefty Blake Snell and reliever Drew Pomeranz are under contract through 2023, Hosmer through ’25 (with an opt-out after ’22), Machado through ’28 (with an opt-out after ’23). Tatis’ deal runs through 2034, and it is not yet known whether it includes opt-outs.
Padres fans will rightly rejoice over the extension, just as they rightly rejoiced over the trades for Snell and Darvish on back-to-back days in late December. So many teams are restricting spending; it’s difficult to criticize the one that is acting the way fans want their teams to act, pandemic and potential lockout be damned.
Advertisement
Yet for all their efforts, the Padres might finish second to the Dodgers and end up in the wild-card game if the players and owners do not agree on expanded playoffs for 2021. And even if the parties agree upon an expanded format in the next CBA, the division winners almost certainly would be given advantages, so the Dodgers would remain a roadblock.
This is not to dismiss the triumph of a small-market team locking up its young superstar after an offseason when the Rays traded Snell, the Indians traded Francisco Lindor and the Pirates traded Jameson Taillon, Joe Musgrove and Josh Bell. From that perspective, the Tatis extension is a cause for celebration, a reason to join Seidler, Preller and Tatis as they sprint into the surf for their triple somersaults.
Alas, the water might be shallow. And the Padres might not land on their feet.
(Photo: Tom Pennington / Getty Images)
