In prognostication and sports betting, the term chalk comes up somewhat frequently. Especially around the time of the NCAA Tournament, experts predicting the results will say they are going with chalk or something along those lines.
Chalk also applies in horse racing. That is the origin of the term, back to when odds were displayed with chalk on a board instead of a digital odds board. Favorites got more action, which is still true today, so the odds would change more frequently for favorites. Those favorites would have more smeared chalk after all the odds updates, thus heavy favorites became known as chalk.
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What does chalk mean? In that context, it simply means the expected result. When filling out a bracket in March, having all No. 1 seeds in the Final Four is chalk because the No. 1 seeds are typically the favorites to win their regions. It doesn’t have to be the Final Four either. Picking every favored team in the first round is also chalk. Someone may say “that’s a lot of chalk” if they see someone’s bracket has almost all the better seeds advancing. That said, please don’t be the person who picks all favorites in your NCAA Tournament bracket.
In sports betting, chalk is basically just a significant favorite. A team favored with a significant point spread would be considered chalk. All bets that are chalk are also favorites, but all favorites are not necessarily chalk. Chalk is not the complete opposite of an underdog.
An 8-9 or 7-10 first-round game in the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t really have one side that would be considered chalk, but any top four seed in the first round would be considered chalk. So the 76ers being 9.5-point favorites and -455 on the moneyline against the Hawks would be considered chalk. The Trail Blazers as 2.5-point favorites with -136 odds on the moneyline, would not be considered chalk.
