Welcome to the new era of the College Football Playoff. To better understand it, let’s look to the past.
Back in April, our Andy Staples had some fun applying possible playoff models to previous seasons. Now that we have a fully formed proposal on the table from the working group, let’s go back and look at what the past decade of college football postseasons would’ve looked like under this model.
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To be clear, we’re not guessing here on how the brackets might’ve looked. We’re attempting to carefully follow the proposed details of the policy in putting this together. The six highest-ranked conference champions in either the final CFP or BCS rankings were selected, then the rest of the spots were filled with the highest-ranked at-large teams.
One caveat: Would the CFP committee have made different decisions over the years had they been tasked with selecting a 12-team playoff instead of four? Probably. Based on going through the mock selection process and seeing how the ranking pools are sorted and voted upon, it’s clear a higher level of scrutiny will be required to identify the six at-large teams from the field. But, for now, this is the best we can do with past results.
In some years, the rule that at-large teams cannot earn a top-four spot and bye made for some peculiar changes to the seeding. A few fan bases (well, mostly Notre Dame and Alabama) are not going to love how that shakes out at times.
In terms of the findings of this study of 2011-2020, here’s the bottom line: 44 programs would’ve reached the College Football Playoff at least once over a 10-year period. And that’s why they’re expanding.
“One of the things we were responding to was the concentration that’s occurred: 78.5 percent of all the opportunities in the first seven years have gone to five teams,” Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick said Thursday.
Those powerhouses still make it more than most in this model, no question. But based on how these 10 years would’ve gone, expanding to 12 brings a lot more programs to the party – and, hopefully, a bit more parity in the process.
2020
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Oklahoma
No. 12 Coastal Carolina at No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)
No. 11 Indiana (at-large) at No. 6 Texas A&M (at-large)
No. 10 Iowa State (at-large) at No. 7 Florida (at-large)
No. 9 Georgia (at-large) at No. 8 Cincinnati
The beauty of going with the top six conference champs over an automatic bids model is that every so often, we’ll see years like this where a fantastic Group of 5 conference champ — Coastal Carolina — gets into the field ahead of a Power 5 champ that might not totally belong in the field. Oregon went 4-2 and won a Pac-12 title game it wasn’t supposed to play in (Washington was the division leader) to finish No. 25 in the final CFP rankings. If No. 16 BYU had knocked off the Chanticleers, they likely would’ve been in good shape to snag the final at-large spot ahead of Indiana.
The first team out in this bracket ends up being No. 13 North Carolina. We saw just how good Georgia vs. Cincinnati ended up being in the Peach Bowl, and it would’ve been wilder to see that play out on Cincinnati’s home turf. But these first-round matchups all look pretty competitive.
2019
1. LSU
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. Oklahoma
No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia (at-large)
No. 11 Utah (at-large) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Penn State (at-large) at No. 7 Baylor (at-large)
No. 9 Florida (at-large) at No. 8 Wisconsin (at-large)
Look, this is one of those years where the three best teams are still by far the three best teams. It’s hard to envision a lot of upsets at the top of this particular bracket with how seriously loaded LSU, Clemson and Ohio State were. This was not the most exciting New Year’s Six slate, so hopefully some of these first-round games are improvements. It’ll be interesting to see if the committee is intentional about avoiding first-round rematches of conference title games like we’d get here with Oregon-Utah (they claimed on Thursday night they would not adjust seeds to avoid rematches). Auburn, Alabama, Michigan and Notre Dame would get left out in this year while No. 17 Memphis moves up as the sixth conference champ.
2018
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
No. 12 Penn State (at-large) at No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)
No. 11 LSU (at-large) at No. 6 Georgia (at-large)
No. 10 Florida (at-large) at No. 7 Michigan (at-large)
No. 9 Washington at No. 8 UCF
Once again, Notre Dame drops out of the top four and is stuck at No. 5 without playing in a conference. That’s great news for an Ohio State team that went 12-1 but finished No. 6 in the final CFP rankings. Another perk of the 12-team format: one horrible loss like 49-20 at Purdue is no longer a season-ruining mistake. Sadly, records suggest it did not snow in Ann Arbor on Dec. 15, 2018, so the Gators would’ve lucked out with just a sunny 38-degree day.
It’s also a bummer that Gardner Minshew’s No. 13 Washington State squad would be the bubble team that gets left out. So does the Texas team that ended up No. 9 in the AP Poll after winning the Sugar Bowl. Spoiler alert: the Longhorns end up missing the field in each of the last 10 years.
2017
1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Ohio State
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Alabama (at-large)
No. 11 Washington (at-large) at No. 6 Wisconsin (at-large)
No. 10 Miami (at-large) at No. 7 Auburn (at-large)
No. 9 Penn State (at-large) at No. 8 USC
The conference champ requirement for top-four seed status seems like a little bit of a correction for past CFP committee decisions that strayed from that criteria. In this case, Alabama didn’t win the SEC and can’t be higher than No. 5. This sets up an epic first-round matchup between the Tide and undefeated UCF, which would finally settle the debate of who really won the 2017 national title. Looking at this bracket, it’s hard not to wonder what a 12-team playoff like this does for the trajectory of Gus Malzahn, Mark Richt and Clay Helton going forward. Stanford, Notre Dame and TCU missed the cut, but all three had three or more losses.
2016
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Washington
4. Penn State
No. 12. Western Michigan at No. 5 Ohio State (at-large)
No. 11 Florida State (at-large) at No. 6 Michigan (at-large)
No. 10 Colorado (at-large) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 USC (at-large) at No. 8 Wisconsin (at-large)
This is one of those years that might better fit an eight-team playoff than 12. But clearly, this is a terrific setup for folks in the Big Ten. Getting Penn State, Oklahoma and Michigan into this race makes for some strong quarterfinals, and that Sam Darnold-led USC team got incredibly hot late in the season and would’ve been tough to beat … though they might look quite beatable on a winter night in Madison. The No. 11 spot is probably debatable between Florida State, Louisville and Oklahoma State, and it would’ve been fun to see P.J. Fleck play the underdog against the Buckeyes.
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2015
1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Michigan State
4. Oklahoma
No. 12 Houston at No. 5 Iowa (at-large)
No. 11 TCU (at-large) at No. 6 Stanford
No. 10 North Carolina (at-large) at No. 7 Ohio State (at-large)
No. 9 Florida State (at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (at-large)
Now this bracket sets up for some excellent upset potential. The 2015 Ohio State team was undeniably one of the most talented teams of the decade to not win a national title. They’re capable of breaking into this final four, but that requires a win over Alabama in the quarterfinals. Christian McCaffrey absolutely gives Stanford a shot at reaching the semifinals, too. We’d also get a B.Y.O.G. Game rematch if Notre Dame advances. And we know this Houston team knocked off Florida State in the Peach Bowl. Might they have been capable of pulling off the 12-5 stunner?
2014
1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State
No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Baylor
No. 11 Kansas State (at-large) at No. 6 TCU (at-large)
No. 10 Arizona (at-large) at No. 7 Mississippi State (at-large)
No. 9 Ole Miss (at-large) at No. 8 Michigan State (at-large)
In this scenario, the Big 12 would need to name a champion and would presumably go with Baylor for beating TCU head-to-head. That would actually benefit TCU quite a bit, since they’d get to host a team they’d already defeated and then face Florida State instead of Ohio State in the next round. Gary Patterson’s team definitely could’ve gone far. Baylor taking on the Buckeyes in the quarterfinals might’ve been wild to watch.
There’s a good chance we’d get a Marcus Mariota vs. Dak Prescott showdown as well. There’s a case to be made that Georgia Tech belonged in the No. 11 slot after a tight 37-35 loss to the Seminoles in the ACC title game. This bracket also invites No. 20 Boise State, the lowest-ranked team that made the field in this 10-year exercise.
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2013
1. Florida State
2. Auburn
3. Michigan State
4. Stanford
No. 12 UCF at No. 5 Alabama (at-large)
No. 11 Oklahoma (at-large) at No. 6 Baylor
No. 10 Oregon (at-large) at No. 7 Ohio State (at-large)
No. 9 South Carolina (at-large) at No. 8 Missouri (at-large)
Now we’re going beyond the CFP era, so we’re relying on final BCS rankings for the seeding. The first round includes two rematches, which isn’t ideal, but Missouri and South Carolina did go to double overtime in their first meeting. This bracket puts Alabama in an interesting position. They’ve just lost the Kick-Six game. They finished No. 3 in the BCS but would get the No. 5 seed. Can they rally and make a big run? Or could Blake Bortles actually take down the Tide? Jameis Winston and his team loaded with NFL talent may still roll through this postseason and win it all, but there would be some quality challengers along the way.
2012
1. Alabama
2. Kansas State
3. Stanford
4. Florida State
No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Notre Dame (at-large)
No. 11 Northern Illinois vs. No. 6 Florida (at-large)
No. 10 Texas A&M (at-large) vs. No. 7 Oregon (at-large)
No. 9 LSU (at-large) vs. No. 8 Georgia (at-large)
This one is fascinating. First of all, it’s one of those years that Greg Sankey dreams about when he backs a 12-team playoff instead of an eight-team model. Here’s five SEC teams in the field (and South Carolina almost makes it in) with a great shot at four advancing to the quarterfinals. We know Johnny Manziel makes Texas A&M the team nobody wants to play, too, and they could definitely go far. Notre Dame is supposed to be the No. 1 seed but gets a much tougher path to the title game. The top-four seed rules force some odd rearranging, as three at-large teams finished in the BCS top four. Florida State, for example, should be the No. 10 seed but gets to vault all the way up to No. 4 as a conference champion.
Keep in mind, this is also the year when undefeated Ohio State is serving a postseason ban and an 8-6 Wisconsin team destroys Nebraska in the Big Ten title game. So the Big Ten is not getting into this playoff, opening up room for both No. 15 Northern Illinois and No. 19 Boise State to earn spots with No. 21 Louisville barely missing out.
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2011
1. LSU
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oregon
4. Wisconsin
No. 12 TCU at No. 5 Alabama (at-large)
No. 11 Clemson at No. 6 Stanford (at-large)
No. 10 South Carolina (at-large) at No. 7 Arkansas (at-large)
No. 9 Kansas State (at-large) at No. 8 Boise State (at-large)
The seeding for 2011 gets a little funky, too, as Alabama and Stanford should be top-four seeds but didn’t win their leagues. That’s good news for Oklahoma State and also means Wisconsin (No. 10 in the BCS) gets a bye for winning the Big Ten. If Case Keenum and Houston hadn’t blown their 12-0 season against Southern Miss in the Conference USA title game, they would’ve been perfectly positioned to take the No. 4 seed.
Since the Crimson Tide are seeded fifth, we cannot get an Alabama-LSU rematch in the national championship. They’d have to face off in the semifinals. Does that mean Mike Gundy’s squad gets to play for a national title? Or maybe Andrew Luck? This playoff does not include 10-2 USC due to its postseason ban but does give two Mountain West squads a shot to surprise.
So now that we’ve done all that homework, let’s review that 10-year period and put together the scoreboard.
12-team CFP appearances, 2011-2020
Yep, no surprises among the top four. As long as they keep dominating their respective conferences, they’re going to keep making the field on a near-annual basis.
But the 12-team playoff was conceived (or, depending on your point of view, conceded) to make the postseason a lot more exciting, giving more schools and players a true shot at competing for a national title. Getting to a New Year’s Six bowl is a great feat. Getting to say your team made the playoff? That’s going to have a much more significant effect on your rep, recruiting and fundraising. And that should help a bunch of programs in their efforts to catch up to the national elite.
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Speaking of that quest, here’s how the 10 years of playoff appearances sorts by conference:
SEC: 32
Big Ten: 23
Pac-12: 17
Big 12: 17
ACC: 15
Group of 5: 13
Independents: 3
Nothing shocking about those results, either. Surprised to see the ACC in fifth place? They had Clemson or Florida State in this playoff every year but were a one-bid league in six of the 10 seasons.
You can see why this isn’t going to be a hard sell in the SEC. In this 10-year span, 11 of their 14 programs got into the Playoff at least once. If they can continue to get three to four bids each year – and sometimes more – that just means more prestige, more money, more power.
Of course, when you introduce more chaos into the process of picking a national champion, that might be to their detriment. Maybe they don’t win six national titles over this 10-year period. Or heck, maybe they win more.
But, hey, that’s the past. Now it’s time to wait impatiently for the future of the playoff to arrive.
(Top photo: Cooper Neill / Getty Images)
