Jake Ciely’s fantasy football strategy guide to weather (updated), trades, roster management and everything in between

With the mounting concern over weather this weekend (September 22, 2023), I updated the one-stop, everything you need to be a better fantasy football manager, advice and strategy overload of goodness and insight into my mind… with more weather correlation charts. I’ve posted all of these before in several rankings articles and other standalone pieces, so instead of having numerous links to check, it’s one giant article of fantasy football strategy.

Weather: To Bench or Not to Bench

There have been several studies on the offensive output under innumerable weather situations, and in this day and age, with advanced data oozing across the internet, we can put value into the conclusions.

The passing game sees a greater impact than the running game, and actually, there is an easy 15/25/35 rule (see below) to help. Rushing is rarely impacted; the only significant downturn comes in temperatures of 90+ degrees and/or severe downpour. That’s it. Often, rushing improves in snow/sleet/rain due to the running back knowing where he’s going first, and the defenders losing a small beat in response time thanks to the surface.

As mentioned, more happens to the passing game, and it’s mainly due to wind. At 15+ mph, you can break ties/close calls and fade the weather. When it’s 25+ mph, you can start benching quarterbacks and even some receivers, as you start seeing decreases in production hitting 10% or greater.

The “35” of the rule is if the temperature drops below 35 degrees, as the passing game takes a hit there. Going back to 2014 (as far as we can pull data), we can compare the performances of all quarterbacks when the temperature is 35 or lower and 36 or higher (outdoor games, obviously).

TEMP	CMP%	PAYD/GM	ATT/TD	ATT/INT	RTG
35-	60.3	229.2	24.5	39.4	84.0
36+	63.0	239.9	22.3	42.0	89.4

TEMP	YDS/ATT	CTCH PA%	RB TGT%	WR TGT%	TE TGT%
35-	6.9	66.1%	18.8%	58.5%	20.2%
36+	7.2	68.2%	19.8%	57.4%	20.5%

You can see the decrease/worse numbers across the board (around a 5-10% drop-off). I added the RB/WR/TE target percentages to show that it’s negligible for where the quarterback looks. Overall, this is slightly more than a tiebreak but not an outright bench player concern.

However, if you combine any wind of 15+ with moderate precipitation or temperatures below 35 degrees, our concerns increase. That’s when you consider benching players for players who might be a tier lower but in better conditions.

You can see in the charts below that points — whether combined or per team — have little correlation to wind speed, and only a spit more with wind and precipitation. The passing yards/game to win has the highest correlation, albeit, still quite low as a determining factor.

Wind Speed to Combined Points

Wind Speed with Rain to Combined Points

Wind Speed to Single Team Points

Wind Speed with Rain to Single Team Points

Wind Speed to Team Passing Yards

WDIS: Who Do I Start?

Start the team you believe scores the most… period. Don’t set your lineup according to your opponent. You never bench a better player to try to offset an opponent. It seems to make sense to try to play off their quarterback, for example, but there is no guarantee your player is involved, and if the entire offense is shut down, you lost a potential double advantage if your other option had a great game anyway.

Running Back vs. Wide Receiver: When running backs and wide receivers are close, it’s nearly always running back for the guaranteed/safe points and the wide receiver for a higher ceiling/more bust potential (again, almost… always).
Deciding on WR3/4 Options: Not only does the wide receiver position get extremely flat (little difference in projected points) extremely fast (mid-20s to mid-40s can be a difference of two points), but one reception can make a receiver jump 10+ spots. So, how do I decide between WR30 and WR45 when it’s so close? If my top two receivers are strong, I’m starting the one with the higher ceiling, even with more risk. However, if my top two receivers are already boom/bust types, then I’ll lean toward the safer play for roster balance. So, while my lean will always be upside first, I won’t play three volatile options together.
Gut Call: If you have a gut feeling, I’ll always say to go with it. Even the best of the best are only correct 70-80% of the time, and often, your gut is telling you something you may have subconsciously noticed or even heard and forgot where/when.
FLEX: Always save the Flex spot for last when possible. If a surprise injury pops up, you need the flexibility to use a running back, wide receiver or tight end (worst case). You don’t want to back yourself into a corner with limited options.

Questionable Players: To Wait or Not to Wait

It’s common for at least one important player to have a game-time-decision call each week. There is a simple answer here. You can never wait for a game-time call without a backup plan in that same game or later and risk a zero. That’s the easy part. You’re now probably asking, “What if I need to decide if it’s worth the wait?” It’s a bit more detailed but still pretty simple, but with a couple of scenario considerations:

Stud player, risky replacement in early and late games: Just wait. No point in risking a boom/bust player if the same option is available by waiting.
Stud player, solid replacement in early games and risky replacement in late games: Similar to deciding between a safe play or boom/bust player, if you need points and the floor, use the early option. If you feel you need the highest ceiling, wait.
Solid player, solid replacement in early games and risky replacement in late games: Similar to stud situation, but would lean more to taking the solid early player, as the upside in waiting doesn’t offset the risk value as much.

Rest of Season: Who Would I Rather?

Until late in the season (as byes draw to a close) too much changes within a few weeks to say, “I definitively want Player X over Player Y.” Yes, there are some clear answers. However, when it’s an immediate impact player who might have value for 2-3 weeks versus a player with a long-term ceiling, it’s tougher. I’m not saying don’t ask ROS questions, but sometimes it’s not as simple as player versus player, as the long-term upside, especially for playoff time, might mean more than immediate need/value.

Roster Depth: Running Backs Reign

First, you can never have too much running back depth. NEVER! If nothing else, when an injury happens and a high-end backup is on waivers, you never pass on him. If nothing else, you cannot let your opponents get help when you can block them, and you can always use the player for trade value.

And with that trade topic in mind, I see a lot of people asking, “Who should I drop?” to pick up options like this. You need to do everything you can to make a 2-for-1 deal, even if you overpay. Obviously, I only mean when the options to drop are valuable pieces that would immediately be picked up by others. Think of it this way: if you overpay, you still get some value and a small roster upgrade. If you cut a player, you lose him for nothing and help another team when he gets picked up. Lastly, three good running backs are not enough! I also see a lot of trade questions about trading their Flex/RB3, who is a Top 25 running back, but the next option is a backup or pass-catching only option that’s an RB4… or worse. That’s not enough depth to trade away running backs.

Waivers and Bench: What to Do?

I spend most Tuesdays answering tons of waiver questions, as people wonder if I would cut Player X for Player Y, etc. This can be handled with a couple of thoughts/bullet points:

Your bench should be filled with upside: can a player turn into a QB1, RB2, WR2, TE1? They should be rostered. Can you find the same type of player on waivers any given week? Drop them. Positional depth matters. Yes, you can often find value close to an RB4 on waivers, but if he’s your first man up for running back depth, you can’t drop him for an upside play/gamble and weaken your starters, particularly during byes.
Also, scour the waivers after they’ve run. You can often find valuable drops as managers overreact.
If you have a top-end quarterback or tight end, don’t waste your time with backups. Look at how much we chase running back and receivers each week on waivers. They carry more value, particularly as potential trade chips.
Look ahead, especially once bye weeks get here. Too often, managers don’t think a week ahead, and then they scramble for fill-ins, overpay in waivers, etc.

Trades: Which Side do I Like?

While a trade should benefit both teams, a key part of that is it should improve your team — help your RB2 spot while trading away receiver depth, etc. If a trade is a net-even or wash, there really isn’t a reason to do it, as you’re just moving strengths. Sure, we all want better running depth/value, but if it comes at the sacrifice of your starting receivers or a major tight end downgrade, what does that do for your team? You’ll often see me say, “If you really want it,” in response to these, and I’m not trying to be snarky. It’s just that it doesn’t move the needle and definitively upgrade your team. Also, I generally avoid answering, “I did this trade, what do you think?” Why? Because 1) it’s too late and 2) there is only downside to answering… as I don’t want to make you feel bad. If I like it, cool, but doesn’t matter because it’s done. If I don’t, you feel bad, and I feel bad for making you feel bad… and it’s still too late.

Trades: Help! I Want to Get Better

101 Level

Understand replacement value – trades aren’t as simple as player X for player Y if there are multiple players and/or different positions. You need to value who replaces the lost player and/or who gets bumped to the bench or dropped. In unbalanced trades (one team giving up more players), again, who do you need to drop or who fills the empty spot from waivers?

Each position carries different weight – if you took a similarly ranked player from each position, you’ll normally get the best return from an RB, WR, QB and TE, in that order… and often nothing much for a DST (also… don’t trade for a DST!).

Sell High/Buy Low – pretty obvious at this day and age, but just like stocks, you want to capitalize on a player’s peak value and increase future upside by getting players at basement pricing.

When asking advice… don’t LEAVE OUT info – have you seen the comment section? I try to get to everyone, so leaving out “well, I only start two receivers, or we don’t have a Flex, etc.” is pretty, pretty, pretty frustrating.

201 Level

Searching for a trade partner – it’s not as easy as, “I want to sell high on Quincy Quarterback, who should I target?” or, “I want to get Roman Receiver, who should I offer?” You need to see what the other manager needs, and then find players you can trade away to help that need.

If you want to trade for a receiver, but that manager has a running back in the Flex and you offer a receiver and running back combo, they’re likely to decline because what do they need another running back for to likely downgrade at receiver?

Put yourself in their shoes – similar to the example, think to yourself, “Would I accept this?” And definitely include the thought, “Would I be insulted?” because…

Don’t spam or insult others – everyone wants to get the best return possible, but you don’t want someone to write you off forever from trades because you offered them a DST, a waiver level running back and your sixth receiver for their RB1.

Be active! – I’ve seen it countless times, and I’m sure you have seen or thought it once yourself, but managers will say, “I would have offered more for that player!” after a trade happens. Engage in weekly/consistent talks. Tell others you’re looking for something specific, even throw it out there you’re looking to trade a player. Sometimes, letting everyone know you want to trade away someone will drive the price up from competing offers.

301 Level

Pay attention to byes – not yours… others. Often, managers are more willing (and sometimes desperate) once their team thins out with byes. If you scan rosters and see someone about to lose three starters in one week for byes, you have a better chance of pulling off an unbalanced trade (2-for-1, 3-for-2)… especially if they “can’t afford” a loss.

Increase the intricacy of your talks. If you’re trying to buy low, start by saying to the manager, “I have the depth to take the chance on Player X if you’re frustrated, and if not, maybe we pick this up next week.” You planted the seed for that person to be watching for another disappointing game. Additionally, if you don’t want to throw out your best offer immediately, you can always start with, “I see you might need some running back help, would you be willing to move ____?”

Buy High/Sell Low – few people don’t know to buy low and sell high, so flip the script and even use the above point (talks) to go after someone that might be perceived as “hot” or “cold.” You could say things such as, “Wow, can’t believe he did it again!” or “We all know he’s going to bounce back eventually.” Obviously, you don’t buy at peak if you think the player will never reach that level again or sell at a basement price if they couldn’t do any worse. But… if you “bought high” on a breakout people still doubted in Week 1, you’d be happy now.

Lastly, as a reminder again, I rarely comment on a completed trade just as with “grade my draft.” Why? It’s too late for an opinion because it’s done and no going back. And… offering an opinion sucks for the person being asked. If I like it, cool, you feel good, but again, what does that matter… it’s done. If I don’t, then you still can’t do anything, and now I feel like a putz for making you feel bad… despite what you all might think in that I just love being snarky and a jerk to everyone.

Confirmation Bias: Myths — Don’t Get Suckered

“Sophomore slump,” “contract year,” “revenge game,” “this team always stops the best player,” etc. They’re all myths that have confirmation bias — people only remember when it happens and not the times it doesn’t.

For every second-season player who struggled, there are as many who improved and as many who held steady. When defenses figure out how to limit a player, it’s on them to counteract their adjustments. There are just as many — if not more — who overcome teams adjusting to them because they are extremely talented in their own right.

I’ve also busted other myths over the years — contract year and revenge game, for example — and just like all confirmation bias myths, it’s not a predictive/measurable factor. With the contract year and revenge game factors, there is a third of each group in performed “Better,” “Worse,” or “Same” (within a +/- 5% margin). With receivers changing teams, there is a slight skew towards worse versus better, but instead of being 33/33/33%, it’s around 30/40/30%. And the same goes for “Bill Belichick always stops a team’s best player.” It’s not as if the other 31 teams don’t try or know how to do it, and it’s not perfect. As with the “Madden Curse” and those other myths, people only remember when it happens.