The NFL draft is the perfect nexus of contextual value. Each pick requires teams to consider not just how good a prospect is, but also how valuable the player is given the position, team needs and the dollar amount attached to that pick under the rookie wage scale. As contracts balloon for cornerstone positions such as quarterback, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback and wide receiver, how a team invests capital into less glamorous positions greatly affects a franchise’s trajectory.
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No defensive position has been hit harder by the changing financial landscape than linebacker, once a glamorous and lucrative position to play. Stars will always be paid — the five largest linebacker contracts are still commensurate with elite role player contracts — but the threshold for what it costs to acquire starter to plus-starter talent at the second level of the defense is arguably beneath other positions that spend the majority of the game aligned between the hashes.
The current threshold for acquiring guards who can perform at a starter to plus-starter level falls around $3-5 million annually. For tight ends, expect to pay $5-7 million for reliable veteran production. Running backs, for all the depression in that market and the depth of talent available, still command $4-6 million for starter-level returns.
But at linebacker, nearly every player slated to earn north of just $4 million in 2022 has played at or near a Pro Bowl or All-Pro level in their career.
| Player | Current contract APY | Age |
|---|---|---|
$19.7 Million | 26 | |
$19 Million | 25 | |
$17 Million | 29 | |
$15 Million | 26 | |
$14.25 Million | 27 |
What does that mean, in the context of previous drafts? Unless peak Fred Warner is in the green room, it doesn’t make much sense to spend a top-15 pick on a linebacker — if a team ought to pick a linebacker in the first round at all. The first round of Dane Brugler’s latest mock draft features two linebackers, Georgia’s Nakobe Dean and Utah’s Devin Lloyd. But the last five years of first-round linebackers is a testament to the crapshoot nature of looking for franchise cornerstone-level performers in the first 32 picks. From 2017 until now, here’s how first-round linebackers have panned out:
• Jarrad Davis, 2017, no. 21 overall: Davis’ snaps have shrank each season since 2018, and Detroit declined his fifth-year option. After spending the 2021 season playing for the Jets, Davis is returning to Detroit on a one-year, league-minimum deal.
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• Reuben Foster, 2017, no. 31 overall: Foster has not played an NFL snap since 2018, following legal trouble (stemming from separate arrests centered on drug and weapon offenses and a domestic dispute, respectively) and torn knee ligaments that landed him on injured reserve for two consecutive seasons. Most recently, Foster was invited to workout for the Miami Dolphins, but there has been little reporting suggesting a return to the league is imminent.
• Roquan Smith, 2018, no. 8 overall: Smith has started 59 of the 61 games he’s been on the active roster in Chicago, and he’s logged more than 90 solo tackles and 10+ tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, making second team All-Pro both times. The Bears picked up Smith’s fifth-year option, which covers this coming season, and all signs indicate he will be a mainstay in Chicago’s defense through at least one more contract.
• Tremaine Edmunds, 2018, no. 16 overall: Edmunds has been the Bills’ starting middle linebackers in each of 61 games he’s made the active roster. Edmunds had his fifth-year options picked up by the Bills, and he made a pair of Pro Bowls (2019, 2020). I’d expect Edmunds to receive a second contract in Buffalo after the 2022 season.
• Leighton Vander Esch, 2018, no. 19 overall: Vander Esch has lost most of the shine from his breakout rookie campaign, when he logged 102 solo tackles and made second team All-Pro. Nearly half of his career solo tackles came in his first 16 career games, and the Dallas Cowboys declined his fifth-year option before resigning him to a one-year, $2 million dollar contract.
• Rashaan Evans, 2018, no. 22 overall: Evans started 50 of the 59 games while on the Titans’ active roster, but mostly middling production led to Tennessee phasing him out of an every-down starter role. The Titans declined to pick up Evans’ fifth-year option, and he’s now playing on a one-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons.
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• Devin White, 2019, no. 5 overall: Short of Fred Warner, White’s resume stands at or near the top of the position in his first three years. Finishing just short of 100 solo tackles in 2020, and 90 in 2021, White has made an All-Pro or Pro Bowl team in each of the last two seasons. I expect White to be the next linebacker to reset the top of the market following his rookie contract.
• Devin Bush, 2019, no. 10 overall: 2022 is a pivotal season for Bush, after playing in just five games in 2020 and logging just 41 solo tackles and two tackles for loss in 16 games last year. Bush had a strong rookie season, but the Steelers must consider his inconsistent body of work when deciding whether to pick up his almost $11 million dollar fifth-year option for 2023.
• Isaiah Simmons, 2020, no. 8 overall: Simmons certainly needed to be walked slowly into his role as the Cardinals’ leading linebacker, but year two provided much more reason for optimism than his rookie campaign. Simmons effectively doubled his tackling production and started in all 17 games in 2021, but he will need a breakout year soon to justify Arizona retaining his contract through year five.
• Kenneth Murray, 2020, no. 23 overall: The Chargers signed Troy Reeder this off-season after the departure of Kyzir White, which says plenty about the franchise’s internal evaluation of Murray. Given Murray logged just 337 snaps in 2021 — and one start after week 12 — it’s safe to assume that the Chargers aren’t expecting much beyond depth and special teams roles for Murray in year three.
• Jordyn Brooks, 2020, no. 27 overall: The NFL’s solo tackle leader in 2021, Brooks showed enough to make Seattle comfortable with letting Seahawks legend Bobby Wagner walk in the offseason. I don’t expect perennial Pro Bowls or All-Pro selections for Brooks, but another 80-plus solo tackle season will give the Texas Tech product a strong argument for the Seahawks picking up his fifth-year option.
• Patrick Queen, 2020, no. 28 overall: It’s difficult to evaluate (or even contextualize) the 2021 season for the Ravens, given the Baltimore’s poor injury luck. Queen’s tackle has production remained steady over two NFL seasons, but the Ravens will need him to take on a bigger role in coverage and show up more consistently in the run game in years three and four.
• Micah Parsons, 2021, no. 12 overall: As it currently stands, Parson is the best football player to be drafted last year, making first team All-Pro as a rookie and finishing as the runner-up for Defensive Player of the Year. Parsons logged production in the backfield consistent with a top-five pass rusher, and he only played on the line of scrimmage in obvious passing situations. Thirteen sacks and 20 tackles for loss per season is probably unsustainable, but playing for defensive coordinator Dan Quinn allows Parsons to maximize his athletic gifts.
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• Zaven Collins, 2021, no. 16 overall: He played just 205 defensive snaps last year, but Arizona losing Jordan Hicks in free agency signals the franchise is ready to put more on the young linebacker’s shoulders. However, last season’s tape showed a linebacker who was still a half-step behind the speed of the NFL game.
• Jamin Davis, 2021, no. 19 overall: Davis started half of his 16 games in his rookie campaign and delivered average production. Washington drafted Davis in the hopes that his athleticism would lend itself towards a coverage-first linebacker with enough size to handle playing in the box when needed, but year one has not provided clarity as to whether that’s a long term role for the Kentucky product.
Making no assumptions about breakout years or a linear, upward trajectory for any of these players, just six appear to be valuable enough for a long-term second contract with the franchise that drafted them — and each of these players is a star, or close to it. A 40% hit rate isn’t too far from what you’d likely find at other positions drafted in the first round, but at least five of these players either already signed or are tracking toward playing on a “prove-it” deal for their next contract, leaving a huge delta in potential outcomes.
The top of this year’s linebacker class doesn’t do much to calm any anxiety about spending a first-round pick on a second-level defender. Dean and Lloyd are jack-of-all-trades types, essential in the modern game, but their play styles and body types aren’t all that similar, leaving some uncertainty about where the consensus may be for the two prospects.
Nakobe Dean, Georgia, 5-11 1/4, 229
Dean, who didn’t do any athletic testing at the NFL Combine or Georgia’s pro day (pectoral injury), measured a bit beneath the ideal stature for inside linebackers at the NFL level — but it never served as a hindrance against SEC competition. As a run defender, you’d expect a player with Dean’s size and athleticism to slip blocks between the tackles — and he’s excellent at shrinking his target area as a blitzer, dropping his pad level and turning his shoulders and hips away from blockers — but he’s perfectly content to play behind his pads and hands, striking guys at the point of attack and trying to disengage to finish with tackles. It’ll run him into trouble at times, as guards and tackles use his lack of length to keep him from getting the extension needed to see where the flow of the play is headed, but Dean’s ability to diagnose the action pre-snap — based on formation, back location and even offensive linemen’s stances — keeps him a half-step ahead of the play more often than not.
Dean’s best trait, and the selling point for any team interested in adding him to the fold, is his tackling ability. The only players at or above his level as a tackler in this draft wore the same uniform as Dean in 2021: Georgia safety Lewis Cine and linebacker Channing Tindall. Dean’s lateral range is what makes his playmaking ability possible to begin with, as he truly tracks the football from sideline to sideline. Dean finishes tackles well in space and appears comfortable when running backs motion out into empty sets, forcing him to cover in the seams or up the sideline. Dean’s coverage ability is likely confined to matching up with running backs or dropping into “middle hook/low hole” areas in zone coverage in the NFL, but he has enough feel for route concepts as they distribute downfield to handle the in-breaking routes in the 12-to-15-yard range pro offenses love to target.
Is Dean a worthy first-rounder?
Dean, much like Aidan Hutchinson as an edge rusher, has been tied to all of the typical coach-speak platitudes: he plays bigger than his frame, he’s a coach on the field, he has a “dog” mentality, and so forth. Each of these superlatives are accurate, but they don’t properly underscore his impact on a play-to-play basis. The entire Georgia defense moved as he did, and his leadership on the field is evident. As far as intangibles, you’d be hard pressed to find a more qualified prospect at this position.
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My concern, and why I ultimately fall short of considering Dean as a first-round prospect, comes back to the same reasons I love him in the first place: the ways that Kirby Smart used him at Georgia. Anytime Dean’s defense got into trouble, you could almost guarantee Georgia would call a blitz for him to disrupt a run or manufacture an unblocked pressure against the pass. If Dean plays for a coordinator who doesn’t believe in solving all his problems with aggression, it’s possible that he could have a slower start to his career.
If a contending team trades back into the pick Nos. 35-40 range and he’s available, Dean would make for an ideal surplus value pick.
Devin Lloyd, Utah, 6-2 3/4, 237
It’s quite jarring going from Dean and Georgia’s defense – a marvel of near-perfect technique and execution — to evaluating Lloyd, the presumptive first linebacker to come off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft. That’s not to imply Utah is messy defensively, or that Lloyd is just floating out on the field, but he’s not as clean an evaluation as what you’d like for a player that once generated top-10 buzz.
Lloyd is at his best when he’s playing downhill – even when he’s not blitzing. Utah’s defense has grown in recent years to add some of the split-safety structures that we’ve seen spread across football. However, when Utah’s in a “bear” front or playing with a single high safety in an even front, Lloyd does well as a one-gap fitter and a guy who can attack windows as they open in the run game. Lloyd would prefer to slip blocks, and it probably suits him best at the next level, because he doesn’t carry as much pop in his hands as you’d like to see when he strikes blockers. It’s less about him being blown off the ball, which doesn’t happen, and more about him stopping his feet and losing his power and ability to work around blocks as he tries to track the ball.
When Lloyd gets a clean look at the action or is in a defensive call that liberates him to attack the football (Cover 3 and Cover 1), you can see him shoot through gaps or beat the flow of the ball to the perimeter, and that’s where his 1.58 10 yard split pops on screen.
As a tackler, Lloyd runs hot and cold. If the ball is checked down on the perimeter, or the run scheme takes the ball out to the edge, Lloyd looks excellent on run-through tackles. His 6-3, 235-pound frame can convert short area burst into power on contact, knocking back ball carriers. If he’s in a situation where the ball carrier has a two-way go, or Lloyd has to throttle down and approach the tackle with proper leverage and technique, he has a tendency to stop his feet and lunge for a tackle. His length allows him to salvage what would be missed tackles, but NFL backs and wide receivers will punish him for some poor habits in his finishing ability. His tendency to stop his feet in tackling and while taking on blocks will be a major point of emphasis in his development at the next level.
In coverage, Lloyd is more fine than good, but it’s easy to see the framework of a plus coverage player in his zone drops. Lloyd possesses a good feel for the tempo and timing of a quarterback’s progression, and when he gets the proper depth in his drops, his movement skills can eliminate throws in the middle of the field. His inconsistencies in his depth in zone coverage can be ironed out with repetition, but his impatience in man coverage is a concern for me when evaluating his versatility.
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Utah did well within its scheme to use him more as a pass rusher in five-down fronts, guaranteeing a one-on-one rush for the best athlete on the defense, but the linebacker needs the threat of matching up with the back one-on-one to sow seeds of doubt in the quarterback’s mind — is Lloyd rushing or dropping into coverage. To address the small issues in coverage, Lloyd will need to do better at playing with patient feet while trusting his leverage and technique.
Is Lloyd a worthy first-rounder?
I find the more optimistic conversations around Lloyd to be more centered around the idea of the player than what the film merits, but that doesn’t mean he can’t contend for a first-round selection. His official 40 yard dash time of 4.66 cooled some of the more boisterous pro comps, but it may have been the best thing for his early-career expectations, too. It would be aggressive to assume Lloyd will provide dominant value in all three key areas — fitting the run, dropping into coverage and blitzing/rushing the passer — but he’s good enough at each to carve out a unique role in a defense.
Lloyd is athletic, rangy, and aggressive in a way that makes him an ideal fit for defenses that still play an overwhelming majority of its snaps in single high safety and four down front structures. I’d be hesitant to expect Lloyd to become an All-Pro/Pro Bowl level performer before his second contract, though, because of how some of his minor inconsistencies manifest themselves on tape.
I find the top-10 buzz to be a non-starter, and I’d still be hesitant in the middle of the first round. By picks 25-30, I’d be more open to the idea of teams snagging Lloyd. That’s a more ideal draft position for a high-ceiling player at a position without high draft value.
Ultimately, I fall short of confidently believing either Lloyd or Dean will live up to the production standards of recent first-round hits at the position. But when has that ever stopped a team from reaching for a high profile player?
(Photo of Devin Lloyd: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)