Can Cubs, Willson Contreras agree on an extension after avoiding arbitration?

May 31, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (40) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
By Sahadev Sharma
Jun 10, 2022

When Jed Hoyer and his front office looked at their roster last winter, then looked at the free-agent class, they knew they faced a daunting task. Building a winning team with so many spots to fill and so many questions on the roster wasn’t going to be easy. In fact, it just wasn’t realistic. Any team they could put together without spending recklessly wasn’t going to look like a winner on paper and would have to outperform expectations to even enter surprise contention.

Advertisement

Hoyer doesn’t want to find himself in the same situation next winter. How the next four months of baseball play out should give him and his staff a lot of answers for the future. The Cubs know Nico Hoerner can excel at second base, he’s showing he can probably handle shortstop, too, and, of course, staying healthy is another hurdle. But they view Hoerner as a piece that can help a winning team. Seiya Suzuki is viewed similarly and, once he’s healthy again, will be starting in right field for the rest of 2022 and into the foreseeable future. Ian Happ is earning a spot in left field beyond this season — assuming the Cubs aren’t bowled over by a trade offer this summer. Others could step up over the remainder of the season, like Christopher Morel has the past few weeks, to help the Cubs feel confident they won’t have to fill certain positional holes.

One of the bigger questions they’re facing is what the future holds for Willson Contreras. With Contreras and the Cubs avoiding arbitration Thursday and agreeing to a $9.6 million deal — the midpoint of the offers each side had submitted — one hurdle has been crossed. Could the amicable resolution lead to a possible extension? That may be more difficult, with a realistic extension perhaps not making a lot of sense for either side.

Prior to the 2018 season, Contreras bet on himself when turning down what the Cubs felt was a fair extension offer. The slugging catcher then went out and put together his worst offensive season, delivering a 101 wRC+ in what turned out to be the beginning of a string of disappointing seasons for the team.

Some within the organization felt Contreras allowed his decision to be a distraction. He put so much pressure on himself that he struggled out of the gate, and as he continued to press, those struggles snowballed into a season-long slump. But Contreras has matured significantly since then.

He saw how impending free agency weighed on his teammates heavily last summer. They all handled it differently, but it impacted them in ways that affected the team in the clubhouse and on the field. It’s also important to note that Contreras is able to put his life and career into full context, and he knows he’s in a good spot whether the Cubs offer him a great extension or not.

Advertisement

Contreras went through a lot to go from Venezuela to the highest level of baseball in this country. It took him nearly seven years and a major position change in the minors before he was on anyone’s radar. Contreras was left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft twice, only to break out in 2015 and end up as a top-50 prospect entering the 2016 season.

But even in his early years with the big-league club, there were moments when Contreras struggled to channel his energy. He’d often bark at umpires a bit too long, never a great move for any young player trying to ingratiate himself with the league, but particularly for a catcher. He’d show his displeasure with teammates or the performance of the team in ways that didn’t always rub everyone the right way. But those issues are in the past. This is a different Contreras, whom everyone seems to agree makes a difference on the field and in the clubhouse.

“In every way, he’s matured,” manager David Ross said. “That’s what happens throughout your career. Each season, you hope that players are growing and getting better. Willson definitely matures on a daily basis and is able to control his emotions, handle them better each and every time, and direct them in a positive way.”

On the field, the Cubs have seen Contreras grow into a superstar. The hope this season was that Contreras would benefit from more rest, so trusted veteran Yan Gomes was brought in as the backup catcher to make sure Contreras wouldn’t be worn down by the season’s second half. It has resulted in some of the best play of Contreras’ career. His 162 wRC+ ranks fifth in the National League and would top his previous career high by 36 points.

Contreras has improved in so many areas offensively that this truly feels like a breakout campaign. He’s striking out less than ever (19.9 percent) in an era when strikeouts are rising year after year. His walk rate is at 11.9 percent, more than a full percentage point above last year’s career high of 10.8 percent. And he’s just crushing the ball when he makes contact. According to Statcast, only Yordan Álvarez and Aaron Judge have a better hard-hit rate than Contreras’ 57.1 percent.

Advertisement

“The manager needs earplugs, it’s loud over there,” Ross said. “I’m not kidding. It is loud. I feel like I say that to the hitting coach next to me, Greg Brown, all the time, ‘Wow, that was loud.’ The line drives, you look up, it’s the 115s, the 116s. Somebody made a comment the other day — I think a ball he hit was 114 — and said, ‘That’s all you got?’

“He’s been spectacular in the exit velocity category. He just looks comfortable. Confidence is a great thing. He’s inside the baseball. He’s hitting the ball the other way. He’s hitting the ball for power. He’s taking his walks. He’s just in a really good space.”

With the numbers Contreras is putting up, he’s become one of those players teams search for, the kind teams build around. So the Cubs’ decision may seem simple. But it’s never that easy.

The calculus has changed, though. That the Cubs were right in predicting more rest would help Contreras is a big point in favor of extending him. The lack of a DH would probably hurt Contreras’ chances of sticking in Chicago, but Contreras can now play nearly every day, stay fresh and produce at a high level.

All the talk about Contreras being a leader, someone young players can look up to and learn from — Morel has spoken about how important Contreras is to him — isn’t something the Cubs will really pay extra for. Do they value those intangibles? Absolutely. But enough to add millions to a possible extension offer? That’s highly unlikely. Hoyer appears to be less sentimental than his predecessor, Theo Epstein, who also often operated in a cold, calculating manner while allowing some room for intangibles, even if he didn’t always go the extra mile for it. This decision will come down to numbers and on-field production.

Another consideration for Hoyer is how Contreras will age. Catchers tend to wear down quicker than other players. How Contreras has performed these first two months with regular rest and the DH available alters the view slightly, but it’s still a major factor for this front office to weigh. J.T. Realmuto has three more years left on his monster deal with the Phillies and is already showing signs of wearing down. Sal Perez’s four-year extension just began this year, a season in which he has an 80 wRC+, is hitting .202 and striking out at a career-high 28.3 percent rate. Yasmani Grandal has two more years left on a four-year deal and is posting a sub-50 wRC+. All are on the wrong side of 30, just like Contreras.

In Hoyer’s view, why take this risk? If Contreras is willing to sign at what they view as a value discount, sure. But why would that make sense for Contreras? His numbers are legitimately among the best in baseball and he’s four months from free agency. He’s set himself up for a huge payday, earned that right and put in a lot of work to get here.

Advertisement

Imagine if Hoyer gave Contreras a market-value deal now and Contreras’ numbers plummeted the rest of the way, or worse, he got injured. There would be no reason to force that move now when they could still bring Contreras back in the winter, assuming the relationship stays strong and amicable through the trade deadline process, which would be likely.

Signing Contreras would be an olive branch from the Cubs to a fan base that’s become disillusioned with a team that’s rebuilding with no real timeline for contention. But that shouldn’t be something that sways Hoyer to make a decision he doesn’t feel is prudent.

Still, Contreras’ opinion on the matter should be valued. Creating friction with players is never ideal. There are many who already feel that the Cubs place value solely in the numbers, creating a cold process with little room for the human element. But some former players still speak highly of the team, to the point that Kyle Schwarber recommended the Cubs to offseason workout partner Mychal Givens, highlighting the family atmosphere they’ve created, the investment in facilities and making sure the players are comfortable.

Ultimately, though, what Contreras will want to know is similar to what many fans are wondering: When will the Cubs once again be a winning team? That timeline certainly speeds up, or at least becomes clearer, if they extend Contreras. And investing more resources this offseason becomes all the more essential.

There’s a chance the Cubs could reassess the situation and revisit the idea of making an extension offer to Contreras, but a trade at the deadline remains extremely likely. Depending on the haul Hoyer could get for Contreras, there’s a scenario where he’s moved at the deadline and the Cubs can still try to contend in 2023 and 2024.

But whether it’s a surprise contract this summer or rekindled talks during free agency, Hoyer and the Cubs will have to sell Contreras on their vision. The veteran catcher has seemingly embraced his role as mentor to younger players and relates to their hunger. If the team shows it’s willing to spend and build a winner, perhaps the two sides can once again find mutual contractual ground to ensure Contreras is part of the next Cubs contender.

(Photo: Kamil Krzaczynski / USA Today)

Get all-access to exclusive stories.

Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. Try a week on us.

Sahadev Sharma

Sahadev Sharma is a staff writer for The Athletic and covers the Chicago Cubs. Previously, Sahadev was a national baseball writer for Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Chicago. Follow Sahadev on Twitter @sahadevsharma