News of USC and UCLA’s impending move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten sent another seismic jolt through college football Thursday afternoon. On the other side of the country, reverberations were felt around the ACC, where one administrator didn’t mince words.
“The Pac-12 is f—–,” the administrator said.
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But is the ACC next?
No one within the league’s 14 football schools is sure what will happen to the conference as dominoes continue to fall in the sport’s ever-changing landscape. But the thought of Notre Dame saving the day and joining the conference in full capacity is probably an even longer shot now than it was before.
And with the Big Ten and SEC potentially looking to form two super conferences with 20 or more teams, the ACC could be the next Power 5 conference that’s raided.
“It is concerning that both the SEC and Big Ten are strengthening their positions at the expense of the Big 12 and Pac-12,” one ACC coach said in a text message. “I hope our league can remain stable through the turmoil.”
Will the ACC survive?
The only thing currently keeping the ACC together is the league’s grant of rights.
In 2016, the ACC Council of Presidents unanimously agreed upon the current rights, which run through 2035-36 and stipulate that an ACC school’s media rights remain with the conference through that period regardless of membership status. Also in 2015, the ACC struck a deal with ESPN through 2035-36.
One ACC administrator pointed out that the grant of rights hasn’t been challenged in a court of law, but that they seem “pretty airtight.”
“Could that change?” the administrator added. “Maybe.”
The administrator pointed out that with USC and UCLA leaving the Pac-12, there could be other schools within the Pac-12 and Big 12 that could add value to the current ACC model, based on perceived television value. Stanford and Cal could be intriguing options considering their high academic prowess.
The problem for the ACC, though, is that with every year that passes, it’s possible that it makes less long-term financial sense for a powerhouse like Clemson to stay in the current deal. Even if a school like Clemson forfeited over its media rights to the ACC through 2035-36, a super conference like the Big Ten or SEC — whom the Tigers compete with regularly anyway — might still pay the program out more money over time. Consider the numbers. In the fiscal year 2020-21:
• The SEC generated $777.8 million of total revenue, with each member institution receiving an average of $54.6 million.
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• The Big 10 generated nearly $680 million in total revenue, with each school receiving an average of $46.1 million.
• The ACC set a league record, generating about $578 million, but still came up about $200 million shy of the SEC and about $100 million shy of the Big Ten. Each school received an average of $36.1 million. And that was with Notre Dame joining the conference as a 2020 member because of the pandemic.
If Thursday made anything clear, it’s that the SEC and Big Ten intend to run college football for years to come, and the other three Power 5 conferences are left playing catch-up.
“We’re significantly below the SEC and Big Ten, but I don’t know we were fifth,” the first ACC administrator said of the TV deal. “It’s an issue we have to resolve. The only way you reopen it is if you add another school, if there’s significant changes to the membership of the ACC. But the way you gain leverage in any negotiation is by winning.”
Is Notre Dame the only savior?
Perhaps the ACC will add another member, as one of the administrators suggested could be a possibility.
“It’s really well known Notre Dame coming into the league would cause the TV contract to open,” the second administrator said. “Maybe there’s somebody not named Notre Dame?”
But Notre Dame already plays an average of five ACC games per season and the Fighting Irish have a national brand with standalone television money that is hard to compete with. It’s no secret that Notre Dame would be the ACC’s first choice, and rightfully so. Thanks in part to Notre Dame sharing its home game rights on NBC with the rest of the conference in 2020, the ACC generated $80 million-plus more in revenue in 2020-21 than it did the previous year.
There’s a reason commissioner Jim Phillips continued to put the full-court press on the Irish last summer at the ACC’s media days. But the Fighting Irish now have even more leverage. Meanwhile, the ACC’s brand just took a hit, and the Big Ten’s got even more of a boost.
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“I think we all got a glimpse of what it would be like to have Notre Dame in the conference this past fall,” Phillips said, referring to the 2020 season when Notre Dame joined as a temporary member because of the pandemic.
“That was a really beautiful and beneficial relationship to both Notre Dame and the ACC. They had a chance to play a fantastic schedule. They had a chance to vie for a national championship and compete in the CFP. We have a real-life example of what that could look like.”
What would make the ACC collapse at this point?
The ACC needs its name-brand institutions more than those institutions need the league at this point.
Programs such as Clemson, Florida State and Miami bolting to an SEC or Big Ten super-conference could sink the ACC. North Carolina and Virginia are both AAU universities and could be attractive to the Big Ten with their top basketball programs and academic standards. Realignment has shown that schools are leaving together. Texas and Oklahoma joined forces to head to the SEC together. UCLA and USC have teamed up this week.
First, though, ACC teams looking for flexibility need to win — outside of Clemson. Clemson and Florida State are the only two programs that have made the College Football Playoff, and FSU hasn’t been back since 2014. The Tigers have won two national championships.
“If the key ACC schools outside of Clemson are 6-6, 7-5, you don’t have a lot of leverage,” one of the administrators said.
Are there any other solutions?
One of the administrators offered a solution that might entice some of the ACC’s top brands to stay put: stop sharing the money.
“We’re operating in a world where every school gets the same amount from a TV contract,” he said. “Changing that shouldn’t be off the table as a possible solution.
The administrator pointed out that a school like Clemson deserves a larger distribution when it comes to football if the Tigers are investing more aggressively than their counterparts to stay competitive nationally.
“If you’re successful in the field,” he said, “you should get more.”
— The Athletic’s Nicole Auerbach and Matt Fortuna contributed to this report.
(Photo: Robert Franklin / South Bend Tribune via USA Today)