NFL Quarterback Tiers 2022: Allen, Herbert and Burrow Make Tier 1 Debuts

It’s a new era for Quarterback Tiers as 50 NFL coaches and executives have shaken up the elite ranks for 2022, the ninth incarnation of my annual survey.

Young guns Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow have joined the Tier 1 ranks, while a couple big names are conspicuously missing — including a certain quarterback the Seattle Seahawks traded to the Denver Broncos in a blockbuster deal recasting expectations for both franchises.

The full 2022 Quarterback Tiers results are below for every veteran starter. The results reflect voting from 50 NFL coaches and executives, including six general managers, eight head coaches, 10 evaluators, 12 coordinators, six quarterback coaches and seven execs whose specialties include analytics, game management and the salary cap. The remaining ballot was put together by four members of one team’s personnel department.

The panel placed 35 veteran quarterbacks into one of five tiers, from best (Tier 1) to worst (Tier 5). Quarterbacks were then ranked by average vote and placed into tiers based on vote distribution, beginning with Aaron Rodgers, whose 1.00 average vote reflected his status as a unanimous Tier 1 selection.

The survey excludes rookies because voters have not seen them play in the NFL. More than one quarterback is featured for teams with unsettled starting jobs.

TIER 1

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

1. Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers stands alone at the top, the eighth time in nine years of QB Tiers balloting that he finished no worse than tied for the top spot. He is the standard for Tier 1 quarterback play.

“I can’t wait to rate him as a 2,” a defensive coordinator said. “That will be like the favorite day of my career.”

Rodgers through the years has received 401 votes in Tier 1, seven in Tier 2 and none lower than that. Some who placed him in Tier 2 previously repented in follow-up conversations.

“Where is the flaw?” a defensive coach asked. “He can make every throw, he has got command of things, he can read defenses, he is challenging to go against because of the mental part of it.”

This is the sixth time in nine years Rodgers was a unanimous Tier 1 choice.

“The smirk, the shoulder shrug, the command of hurry-up tempo in 2-minute, he’s got it all,” a coach said. “The head coach (Matt LaFleur) wants to run the field goal team on and Rodgers waves them off, calls another play, completes it to make the field goal try easier and burns enough time so the kickoff coverage team doesn’t have to run out there. The guy oozes Tier 1 in ways others QBs can only dream doing.”

Rodgers beats the competition in two categories multiple voters cited: the ability to elevate his weaponry and in how he not only outsmarts opponents, but relishes doing so.

“(Tom) Brady has had the more decorated career with 10 Super Bowls and seven rings, but I will say this,” an offensive coach said. “Aaron Rodgers has helped elevate every player on that offense. Brady with N’Keal Harry did not elevate his game. Aaron has had Davante Adams, but he is still waiting for a first-round receiver, they have not had great receivers overall and he is still putting up major numbers.”

As for showing up opponents, Rodgers owns the most condescending smirk in the game.

“It’s not enough to make a good read and see a coverage rotation and throw where he needs to throw,” a defensive coach said. “He wants you to know that he got you and look at the sideline with that smirk. He is outsmarting you … always trying to catch you in a blitz and throw a little smoke out, or whatever. He’s just an extreme challenge to go against, beyond any of these other guys that have talent.”

2. Patrick Mahomes

A single contrarian voter prevented Mahomes from tying Rodgers at the top. That voter, a veteran defensive play caller, thinks there were times last season when Mahomes failed to read defenses the way top-tier quarterbacks should.

“We love Mahomes because of his unorthodox throws, not because of his natural pocket presence,” this voter said. “And when that disappears, that is when they lose games. I don’t think that is a 1. I think that is a 2. Nothing against the guy. I love the kid. But take his first read away and what does he do? He runs, he scrambles and he plays streetball.”

Mahomes during the past three seasons has commanded 149 Tier 1 votes, with just this single vote in Tier 2.

“This guy, he’s box office,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I mean, anybody would pay to watch Aaron Rodgers and him play. If you had the worst seat in the house, you would still go watch Patrick Mahomes play.”

Last season, defenses for the first time curtailed Mahomes’ ability to strike for explosive plays. The Chiefs gained more than 15 yards on 14.6% of Mahomes’ pass attempts where gains that long were possible. That ranked 19th among qualifying quarterbacks. Mahomes ranked first during the previous three seasons at 20.3%.

“If I’m playing the optimistic side, I say defenses caught up with them a little bit, they wanted a slow death and he was still on a throw-it-downfield mentality because he had 10 (Tyreek Hill),” an offensive coach said. “Without 10, he will dink and dunk, and they will coach him to that. He will complete so many balls this year because they will get his mind wired for that before the season. Moving Tyreek forced them to a mentality that they would have had to do anyway, and now it’s just easier. It is hard to sell that to a quarterback when you have 10 running around.”

A defensive coordinator said Hill was the No. 1 game-plan consideration when facing Kansas City, above Mahomes.

“It’s like they play NBA iso-ball and just try to get enough space for a matchup on (Travis) Kelce or a matchup on Tyreek,” another defensive play caller said. “If Mahomes has a quote-unquote flaw, I do not think he is the greatest at diagnosing, but he is so extremely talented with his arm, his release and the way that they run their offense, it is just pick your best matchup and go work that. If you’re a matchup-oriented team and you lose one of your top matchup guys like that, it is going to affect how you play. Maybe he has to adapt a little bit, but I think he has all the makeup to do it.”

3. Tom Brady

Quite a few voters think Brady, if isolated only for his on-field contributions, might now belong high in Tier 2. Only eight placed him there. The totality of what Brady provides is why only Rodgers and Mahomes stand above him heading toward Brady’s age-45 season.

“Oh, Brady is a 1, 100 percent,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He can carry that offense. He is that offense. He has an all-star team around him, but just look at how that team oozes confidence now that they have 12 back and playing. They are a contender again this year, and it’s all because of having him and just his mindset. Can they protect him? That is going to be the big question.”

Brady last season started every game and led the NFL in pass completions, pass attempts, passing yards and passing touchdowns.

“You still have to give the dude a 1,” a defensive coordinator said. “He still has the physical skills, different than Peyton (Manning) at the end of his career. Tom is going to get you into the right plays and make the right decisions, and he can still throw it. He can win games.”

Pro Football Reference credited Brady with five game-winning drives last season, matching a career high.

“The playoff games were pretty good, but there were spells within those games where you go, ‘Ooooh,’ ” an evaluator said. “The Rams game, both games against New Orleans — certain teams know how to play him well, and he is not simply dicing up guys as much as you would think. He is still talented, but I think he has to have a full package to continue to sustain that success.”

Brady was second to Rodgers in Total QBR and in MVP balloting.

“The things that make him great aren’t going to age poorly — his command of everything, his knowledge and vision,” a defensive coach said. “But I do think there’s a wider arsenal of defenses available that are more effective against him. If you are just straight pressuring him, he’s going to murder you, and if you are just straight in coverages, he is going to murder you. We got him on some simulated pressures, which I think people are figuring out.”

4. Josh Allen

Allen surged into the top tier after narrowly missing last year. Tossing nine touchdown passes without an interception in playoff games against New England and Kansas City all but expunged from his record his playoff meltdown against Houston following the 2019 regular season.

“He has proven that he can handle big moments,” a personnel director said. “He still throws interceptable balls, but he gives his guys opportunities to make plays, and nine times out of 10, they are making those plays. You can see the maturity. He used to make really egregious throws. It creeps in every now and again, but he is a big-time passer.”

Allen became the ninth player in QB Tiers’ nine-year history to command Tier 1 votes on at least 75% of ballots. Rodgers has done it nine times, followed by Brady (eight), Mahomes (four), Drew Brees (three), Russell Wilson (two), Peyton Manning (one) and Ben Roethlisberger (one).

“Josh Allen is a better version of Lamar (Jackson), and I love him as a football player,” a defensive coordinator said. “I still think he is erratic as a thrower and so he doesn’t scare me the same way Rodgers does. But he’s ascending.”

This voter had only three players in the top tier. Some voters are stricter than others with their Tier 1 interpretations. The group overwhelmingly placed Allen in Tier 1, behind the only active quarterbacks to win Super Bowls and MVPs.

“Some guys you’ve got to just give credit for being big, talented guys that can overcome a lot of stuff,” an evaluator said. “He may not be perfect, but he’s so big and so talented that he carries the team. He is a freak. He is not going to expertly handle pure-pass situations, but he doesn’t have to a lot of times. He may have five guys hanging on him and complete it anyway.”

One potential concern: Brian Daboll’s departure from the Bills as offensive coordinator.

“It will be interesting to me to see if that changes things, because I think Brian did a really good job,” a defensive coach from the AFC East said. “I think he controlled it as much as Josh did. I don’t want to say Josh is going to be on his own, but I’m not sure he totally has that command yet.”

5. Justin Herbert

Herbert joins a short list of quarterbacks to reach Tier 1 before age 25. Mahomes, Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson did it after leading their teams to the postseason and winning there. Herbert pulled it off with a career 15-17 record as a starter and no postseason appearances.

“Man, I was so impressed with him live,” an offensive coach said. “He has a chance to do something special. He’s the best pure thrower of the three young guys (Herbert, Allen, Burrow). I didn’t realize he was that athletic. One of our studs was chasing him down and he got around him and was laughing at him the whole time. The competitive spirit, the athletic ability, I saw a fricking stud in our game.”

Combine some of Burrow’s accuracy with some of Allen’s size/athleticism and you’ve got Herbert.

“I think he’s the next guy, he is on his way, because the thing with him is, he’s not quite the passer, but he’s kind of like a bigger version of Aaron Rodgers,” another voter said. “When we played them, I was like, ‘Damn, I didn’t know this dude could move that well or he was this accurate.’ Five, six, seven years down the road, I think Mahomes, Josh Allen and Justin Herbert will be the guys we’re talking about, the big three.”

No voter questioned whether Herbert could become a top-tier quarterback. Some did want to see him drive more team success before letting him borrow Dan Fouts’ gold jacket.

“It takes more time on task to truly be a top-tier guy,” a defensive coach said. “With those guys, it is like going to ‘Top Gun Maverick’ every single weekend because the stunts they pull are the equivalent of pulling 11 Gs and bending the air frame. It takes hours in that cockpit to operate that and not kill yourself and your team and crash the thing. When it is 17-0 at half, that is trying to land the thing in the Indian Ocean with 50 mph winds and 40-foot waves rocking the flight deck, and they manage to get it down or get it close.”

6. Joe Burrow

Burrow has started 26 regular-season games and four in the playoffs. He has made it through one season healthy. He also quarterbacked the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl after Vegas set Cincy’s win total at 6.5, fifth-lowest in the league. Voters love how he plays.

“Burrow is a young Tom Brady,” said a GM who placed Allen and Burrow in the top tier, but not Herbert. “I think Herbert has shown he can do it in doses. Burrow is a step ahead. I think his mind is a lot quicker than Herbert’s. Burrow wins with his brain, and he has had to, because he played behind probably the worst offensive line ever to go to the Super Bowl.”

Burrow’s accuracy, calm under pressure and willingness to stand strong in the pocket even when he’s taking punishment has earned admirers.

“This league is in good hands with the quarterbacks right now, and they’re in good places, with (coaches) who like to throw the ball,” a head coach said. “These veteran guys know that these colleges are throwing the ball more and they had better maximize their abilities, man, or they ain’t going to be doing it long, because the colleges are putting out better guys right now.”

Any concerns on Burrow?

“He got fooled on that fourth down in the Super Bowl,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He predetermines a lot of his quick game. They’ll spread it out and try to show him the picture. When you can change the look for him, I think the kid locks in and some of these guys. Once you get a book on them a little bit, you can make these guys struggle a little. I’m not saying this is a guy you are going to take off the map. The kid is a competitor. I’m just saying he clearly predetermines some things and until he grows out of that, he is a good 2 for me.”

A head coach who placed Burrow in Tier 1 explained that Burrow’s poor offensive line was a contributing factor.

“Joe reminds me of the West Coast Offense quarterbacks you always were looking for with the anticipation, instincts, ball accuracy, throwing guys open,” another head coach said. “You just don’t see that at a very young age coming out, and I’m talking particularly from the drop-back phase. I’m a Joe Burrow fan. I’d put a 1 on him.”

TIER 2

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

7. Matthew Stafford

Stafford commanded 18 Tier 1 votes, up from four last year. He remained seventh in the rankings because, while Stafford overtook Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson this year, he watched Herbert and Burrow race past him. Still, the 1.68 average for Stafford marked a Tiers-era best for him. He now stands about where he did heading into the 2018 season, after four seasons with Jim Caldwell.

“I think it’s fascinating,” an offensive coach said. “The whole thing with Stafford, you just felt like here is a guy with all the talent in the world and you get him into a situation with a good staff, a good team, and there’s some consistency there. I certainly was not surprised with how he performed. Any time the head coach is the play caller and you get some chemistry and are on the same page, that’s a huge, huge advantage.”

Stafford might have threatened the top tier if he hadn’t faltered later in the regular season as the Rams, thrilled to have a capable veteran quarterback, leaned into a dropback pass offense to a degree that seemed excessive, perhaps exposing Stafford’s upper limits. One voter cited those limits as his reason for not pushing Stafford into Tier 1.

“Run it, play defense and have a Tier 2 quarterback, you will win a lot of games with that,” a head coach said.

The 2021 Rams averaged 10.5 expected points added (EPA) per game on defense and special teams in the playoffs. That’s the fourth-best average among the past 20 Super Bowl winners, according to TruMedia. The Rams’ offense lost 2.5 EPA per game in the playoffs, second-worst among the past 20 Super Bowl winners. So, yes, it’s a team game. A good team helped Stafford after bad Detroit teams dragged him down for years.

“He still to this day has the best arm I’ve been around or seen,” a voter who was with Stafford in Detroit said. “Whether it’s with a system that suits him and a good partnership with the head coach and all that, a Super Bowl ring gets you an upgrade in my book.”

8. Russell Wilson

It’s been fascinating in recent seasons to see how established quarterbacks fare in new environments. How much were the Lions holding back Stafford? Lots, it turned out. How much did Brady need Bill Belichick to win? Not as much, Brady proved with Tampa Bay.

“The difference with Russell is, he is a lot more high-maintenance,” a GM said. “He’s got the entourage, he needs the office at the facility, the extra hotel rooms on the road, all that stuff. It will be interesting how that dynamic works with a rookie head coach and rookie offensive coordinator, how they jell.”

Determining whether Wilson benefits from switching teams could be tricky because he produced at a high level and won in Seattle, setting standards that could be difficult for most any quarterback to match. But if Pete Carroll’s run-heavier offensive philosophy was indeed holding back Wilson instead of propping him up, switching to the Broncos could launch him to new heights.

“Russell has been a high-level play-action, shot, pocket-extend-plays quarterback,” a defensive coordinator said. “His dropback game is well above average, but I don’t think it’s elite. This is going to be a legacy defining change for him. Is he going to be that guy or is he going to be what a lot of people thought but weren’t sure because it was easy to blame Pete and the system and all that?”

Some voters said Wilson learns best through repetition and could need time to get comfortable in Nathaniel Hackett’s offense. Some thought Seattle had already bent its offense to what Wilson does best, and that Wilson himself might advocate for similar concepts in Denver, to the point that the Broncos might run Wilson’s offense as much as they run Hackett’s offense.

“You would think you’re going to see the best version of Russ because of the competitor and how motivated he is to go out on his own and perform well,” an offensive coach said. “But he does need to keep an eye on that body weight for the style of play he wants to play.”

Wilson was a unanimous Tier 1 selection two years ago. Ten of 50 voters placed him in Tier 2 last year. That number grew to 34 this season, with one voter even placing Wilson in Tier 3, a first for Wilson since 2018.

“There are extenuating circumstances with him,” a voter who placed Wilson in Tier 1 said. “There are injuries and there’s the type of team around him, but when it’s pure pass, the ball still moves. I don’t know what videos these other guys are watching. (Wilson) went 96 yards against the Vikings after the two-minute warning two years ago and did something similar against Washington last year. I’m way more concerned about the inconsistent catch ability of his weaponry (in Denver) than I am about Russell.”

Seattle and Tampa Bay are the only teams the past two seasons to score touchdowns more than once on drives starting inside their own 10-yard lines with 2:20 or less in a half. But there is also video showing Wilson holding the ball too long and inviting sacks, or failing to see open receivers, refusing to take what the defense gives him.

“My gut says he is a 2 descending, like some of the stuff that made him special is not quite the same,” a defensive coach said. “I don’t know if it was schematic stuff last year, but we played them two years ago and I was like, ‘Yeah, I don’t know.’ Maybe this rejuvenates him. This will be an interesting year for him, a telling year. Does he get a two-year boost from this and then the flaws start showing up again?”

9. Deshaun Watson

Watson got votes in the first, second and third tiers, plus a lone vote in Tier 5, as voters debated what to make of him after one year on the sideline, two dozen civil lawsuits against him and uncertainty surrounding how much Watson would be available to the Browns this season.

“A Tier 1 distraction is what Watson is,” an evaluator said. “It blows me away paying the all-time NFL contract for a Tier 2 player.”

Watson is just 26 years old, so there’s time for Cleveland to play the long game. Still …

“I can’t believe that the Browns did what they did,” a GM said. “There’s just too many unknowns. I know Andrew (Berry), and I just can’t picture him doing that. Take the contract out of there. Just making this guy the face of your franchise and really not knowing, ‘Do we have him this year, do we not have him this year, will other stuff come up?’ I just can’t imagine doing that.”

The Browns did it, and now they are more talented at quarterback, whenever Watson plays.

“I know he is all (screwed) up, but he is a 1,” a defensive coordinator said. “I mean, I’m just rating him as a football player. He is a 1. He is legit. You could put the game on him. They were bad and losing in Houston, but it wasn’t because of him.”

Houston ranked 10th in offensive EPA and 31st in combined defensive and special-teams EPA in 2020, Watson’s final season as the Texans’ starter. Watson ranked 12th in Total QBR. The team finished 4-12.

Voters placed Watson at the bottom of Tier 1 last offseason. They dropped him into the second tier this year.

“It will not be hard to put Watson back into Tier 1 if he does what the Dolphins and Cleveland and half-a-dozen other teams thought he would do if they signed him,” an offensive coach said.

10. Lamar Jackson

Jackson climbed slightly in terms of average vote but dropped three places in the rankings as Stafford, Herbert and Burrow moved past him. There remains no player like him in the league.

“You cannot go into a game and not account for this guy — like, we are meeting with people every offseason to find out how they would defend this type of offense,” a defensive coordinator said. “At the same time, I can totally see why you can go anywhere from 1 to 3 on him. If he has to drop back and throw the ball, it is not the same, but if he is on rhythm and they are running the ball and they are running the play-action off it, if you can’t account for that dude, he is going to kill you.”

Jackson was so sensational as a dual threat during his 2019 MVP season that 16 voters placed him in Tier 1 heading into 2020. This year, there were as many votes for Jackson in Tier 1 (eight) as there were in Tier 3.

“If he has to pass to win the game, they ain’t winning the game,” another defensive coordinator said. “He’s so unique as an athlete and he’s really a good football player, but I don’t (care) if he wins the league MVP 12 times, I don’t think he’ll ever be a 1 as a quarterback. He’ll be a 1 as a football player, but not as a quarterback. So many games come down to two-minute, and that is why they have a hard time advancing even when they are good on defense. Playoffs are tight. You have to be able to throw the ball, and he is just so inconsistent throwing the ball. It is hit or miss.”

The Ravens are 1-3 in the postseason with Jackson starting. Jackson has averaged 6.6 yards per attempt with four total touchdowns and seven turnovers in those games. During the same span, the players in Tier 1 this season are 24-12 in playoffs while averaging 7.7 yards per attempt with 79 total touchdowns and 24 turnovers. Their combined playoff passer rating is 99.7, compared to 68.3 for Jackson.

“I think what we saw with Lamar, starting with the Miami game and carrying through the rest of the season, was someone who struggled to identify coverages and make pre-snap reads,” an offensive coach said. “He is still a really dynamic player, brings something different to the group, but by and large, is going to have to continue to improve as a passer in order go deep in the playoffs and put himself in the Tier 1 group.”

Those placing Jackson in Tier 1 think his skill set is unique enough to warrant that status.

“To me it is nonsense to say he is not in Tier 1,” another offensive coach said. “He is one of the more special talents to ever play the game, and Baltimore is a contender because of him.”

11. Dak Prescott

There was a point last season when Prescott seemed to be gaining as a potential Tier 1 candidate. Perhaps it was a calf injury that set him back. Whatever the case, the momentum stalled, and Prescott wound up back where he’s been for years, as a solid Tier 2 quarterback struggling to crack the top 10.

“He played like how he always does,” a head coach said. “He’s a solid player. Really solid. He’s not going to change and all of a sudden become something more special. He’s had a premium setup — premium offensive line, premium skill position players, and you know what he has done? He’s been really solid and they’ve won a ton of football games. He has legitimate intangibles in terms of his leadership and toughness, and he’s a good player.”

It’s possible Prescott will ascend this year after healing fully from the serious leg injury he suffered in 2020 and the calf injury that slowed him more recently.

“I think he is a 2, which is not bad,” a personnel director said. “Some of these teams that have Tier 1 quarterbacks, the line is OK to questionable and they are still producing, whereas Dak has generally had a talented offensive line and he still gets that mixed performance.”

One coach thought the Cowboys’ offense becomes more predictable later in the season as the team repeats plays. A quarterbacks coach who placed Prescott in Tier 1 noted that Prescott kept the Cowboys competitive even though their offensive line had fallen off and the team had disproportionate resources stuck in an unproductive running back. This voter called Prescott’s footwork “impeccable” and admired how the quarterback adjusted coming off a serious injury that limited his mobility.

“I don’t think there is a major flaw in his game, but I’m not sure if he has like truly hit that upper echelon,” a defensive coach said. “I think he is a very healthy 2, a 2-plus. He has never really made that leap. I have a lot of respect for Kellen (Moore), think he does a good job. It just seems like every time they have their chance to really put it together and elevate it, they fall short, so I don’t know.”

12. Derek Carr

Carr jumped to his highest standing since 2017 with the second-best average of his career. He did it after weathering a season marked by Jon Gruden’s resignation, Henry Ruggs III’s arrest and release and a playoff appearance.

“He is close to Tier 1, Derek Carr is,” a head coach said. “Just from an intellect standpoint, he always puts them in a good position, he makes a lot of good decisions. But, similar to the Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford conversation, there is something different in Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Carr is a notch below those guys. He can’t quite overcome it when it’s bad around him.”

A study conducted last season showed Carr getting worse support from his own defense and special teams than any of 41 quarterbacks with at least three seasons as a starter over the past decade. The Raiders during the past three seasons ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 32nd in combined EPA on defense and special teams. The latter component explains why the team has only a 25-24 record during that span despite good production from the QB.

“Carr has been an easy target to blame for some crazy stuff there, and he is kind of a dorky guy a little bit, easy to make fun of,” a defensive coach said. “But I think the more he has played, and what they did last year with all the turmoil they had, and Derek being a steady hand with solid numbers, that helped him.”

An AFC West coach said he thought Carr had “powered through” perceptions that he shrinks in the face of the rush, but all agree Carr needs to be protected better than some.

“I’ve coached against him quite a bit, and he sees it, he makes checks, he can operate the offense, he has all the physical skills,” a defensive coordinator said. “His issue is, he just doesn’t like to be hit. You hit him a lot, then you can get him. But if he is on time, on rhythm and protected, he can do it all.”

13. Kyler Murray

Murray’s average improved for a second successive year, but the pace of improvement slowed as voters questioned the quarterback’s durability, consistency and leadership.

“I thought about giving him a 3 because the meltdown (against the Rams in the playoffs) was a meltdown, but by the same token, he is talented, he is athletic, he runs around, he extends the down, makes plays with his feet,” an evaluator said. “It is difficult because he is not a big-bodied guy, and that shows up at times. I think he is a wide receiver mentality playing quarterback. … Things have to be a certain type of way for him to have success. Being more of a loner or introvert at that position is tough.”

Does any quarterback possess a more exciting highlight tape than Murray? A few might, but not many.

“The game he played against Dallas (in Week 17) was about as well as I have seen him play — he played his ass off,” one voter said. “He made a lot of contested throws. I thought he managed the game. But the thing you see when you watch all the games is, you see a lot of cadence issues, you just see a lot of sloppiness. Then he’ll take off on five plays and potentially change the game. He just makes a lot of mistakes, and it costs them.”

Murray’s completion rate, yards per attempt, passer rating and EPA per pass play have increased every year he’s been in the league. His production has been much better in September and October than in the second halves of seasons. Seven of his eight fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives fell in the first nine games of seasons, according to Pro Football Reference.

“He’s a really streaky player,” a head coach said. “I don’t see the consistency of excellence at the position. When he cannot run, I haven’t seen him play well enough from the pocket to win. And then I don’t think he possesses the decision making or the ability to just control a game with his mind.  But he’s an excellent player — a dangerous player is a better way to describe him. He’s dangerous when you are unsound, meaning you have bad matchups and he can just hit you on an isolation. But when he truly has to read it out, when there’s not air for him to take advantage of in the run game and then just his running threat, he’s inconsistent with it.”

14. Matt Ryan

Ryan is holding on, coming within two votes of falling into Tier 3 for the first time in nine seasons of balloting.

“I thought he would do well in Atlanta with Arthur Smith managing the game like he did for Ryan Tannehill,” a GM said. “He is definitely on the decline arm strength-wise.”

Getting traded to a potential playoff team changed the outlook for some.

“I still think he can play,” an evaluator said. “If you give him the run game and protect him, especially if you can protect him up the middle, he can throw it well enough and he’s smart enough to keep the train going. With those guys (Colts), I think he’s got a great chance.”

Voters felt Ryan’s arm strength was waning as his age-37 season approaches. He is six years removed from his last Pro Bowl and five removed from his last winning season. Some contributing factors have been beyond Ryan’s control. Atlanta has ranked worse than every team but the Raiders in combined EPA on defense and special teams over the past five seasons, including 27th last season (Indy was 11th). The Falcons’ offensive infrastructure has been gutted.

“With the Falcons, he just didn’t have any help,” a former GM said. “I’m not saying he’s the same guy who won MVP, but I’m saying if you protect him and you can run the ball, he will get the ball to the right guy, he will see the blitz, he’ll pick all that stuff up, and he’ll make plays. If you get the ball in 2-minute and you’ve got to go the length of the field to win the game throwing the ball, he can do that. He’s very competitive. I think they’ve got a chance to get two years from him.”

A quarterbacks coach drew parallels to Philip Rivers’ signing with Indianapolis two years ago, contending Indy was going to win 10 games with him whether or not Rivers was still in the top two tiers. A GM thought Ryan’s arm had diminished to the point of becoming a liability in pure-pass situations.

“Matt Ryan physically has less ability than the guy they got rid of (Carson Wentz),” a defensive coach said. “What they’re hoping is, this guy is a better leader and less mistake-prone. Frank (Reich) wants someone who can control the offense, and I think they are going to work together, and I think Matt is a good manager. He’s going to try to take care of the ball and go to the right spot, so I think that’s going to be a better pairing.”

TIER 3

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

15. Kirk Cousins

If there’s ever a Tier 3 Hall of Fame, Cousins might get the first bust. In the past six years Cousins was first in Tier 3 twice, second twice and fourth another time. He was also the final quarterback in Tier 2 one year. His average vote this year (2.72) is within a hundredth of where he stood twice previously.

“I think he’s one of the more accurate passers in the league,” a GM said. “For whatever reason, in big moments, big games, he’s not able to get it done. Now, because Kevin O’Connell is going there and their offense is going to open up, they’ll maximize what he is. Is he Stafford, who had just been in some bad situations? I think he’s a step below.”

Voters referenced former Vikings coach Mike Zimmer’s open disdain for Cousins as a factor working against the quarterback. The partnership with O’Connell can only be better.

“People want more, but guess what, he is a pretty damn good player,” an offensive coach said. “Now he is going to be in an offensive-oriented system where guys like (Jared) Goff and Stafford have had success. People don’t like him because they knock his leadership or his contract, but the reality is, there is no one younger that you would want over him that you could get through the draft or trade — (Sam) Darnold, (Baker) Mayfield, those guys.”

A head coach called Cousins “very skilled” but suffering in natural leadership.

“I don’t think his players would die for him,” this coach said.

A prime-time victory against Pittsburgh in which Cousins completed 14 of 31 passes lingered in the mind of one voter.

“They ran the ball straight up Pittsburgh’s ass, and he made about three throws the whole game — a couple outstanding throws, but other than that, he was terrible,” this voter said. “One of the deep throws, the receiver pushes the DB in the back. I’m thinking, ‘This is not the guy you are going to win a championship with.’ ”

An offensive coach said he’d rather have Cousins than Ryan at this stage.

“I think Kirk has been playing consistently at a very high level,” this coach said. “Kirk right now is a more consistent passer than Matt. Both are learning new systems, but Kirk is not learning teammates, doing all that stuff, whereas Matt is, and this is new for Matt. I just think that there’s more things in place for Kirk where he’s more comfortable and it should be a little bit more of a seamless transition.”

16. Jimmy Garoppolo

The 49ers have won with Garoppolo but not necessarily because of him, and now they have given him permission to seek a trade as San Francisco moves closer to starting Trey Lance.

“Reminds me of (Ryan) Tannehill,” a coach said of Garoppolo. “Wins games, doesn’t play for the opponent, teammates respect him — the exact kind of guy we find ways to kick off the team.”

The decision appears agonizing for the 49ers.

“Jimmy is a 2, in my opinion, and the only reason anyone would say he’s a 3 is because of the injuries,” a head coach said. “Most of the 3s with a good run game and a good defense are still like .500 quarterbacks. San Francisco has been either to the Super Bowl or the NFC Championship three times with Jimmy. Once you do that, you are in that 2 category.”

Only six other voters agreed with the Tier 2 designation for Garoppolo. Garoppolo missed two games last season, 10 the season before and none in 2019. The 49ers are 25-12 with him in the lineup across those three seasons. They averaged 25.3 offensive points per game last season when Garoppolo started, compared to 16.5 in the two games Lance started as a rookie.

“Why do you think they don’t like Jimmy G so much?” a former GM asked. “He is close to a 2 to me, but I’ll give him a 3. If I was the owner there, it would really piss me off (to be trading so much capital for Lance at Garoppolo’s expense, possibly without getting better).”

The 49ers want more than a Tier 3 system quarterback.

“Jimmy fits that Tier 3 category perfectly,” a quarterbacks coach said. “Like you say, a lower-volume drop-back pass offense, lots of movement, lots of play-action, lots of eye candy with fly/jet sweeps. And then you need playmakers around him like he has had in San Francisco.”

17. Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill climbed into Tier 2 last season after a steady ascent, only to slip following a one-and-done playoff performance as the AFC’s top seed.

“He is probably a 3, maybe a 3-plus,” a coach who overlapped with Tannehill in a previous season said. “My heart broke for him that he played so (poorly) in that playoff game. He was having such a good year, really two years. But I think that is what he is. Unfortunately, in a couple of times they’ve asked him to be the guy to win the games, he hasn’t been able to do it.”

Derrick Henry’s return to health could be pivotal. Tannehill averaged an additional 2.1 yards per pass attempt on early downs last season when Henry was on the field. His EPA per pass play (counting sacks) increased sevenfold with Henry in those situations. His EPA per pass attempt more than doubled.

“Tannehill relied on the team more than the team relied on him, because in the moments when he could have brought the team back, especially when they played against Kansas City in the AFC Championship, he couldn’t make it happen,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I’m still waiting for that defining moment from Ryan Tannehill. It still hasn’t happened yet, and that’s why I have him as a Tier 3. He’s got Tier 2 potential and talent, but just in the big moments, it just hasn’t translated.”

An offensive coach who placed Tannehill, Cousins and Ryan in the second tier thought the cutoff should fall after them.

“I haven’t changed on Tannehill at all,” this coach said. “He is doing exactly what he does. He is the AFC version of Kirk Cousins. The last two years he has been very successful, very efficient. If you replaced Tannehill with Matt Ryan, would you be as successful? I believe you would. If you replaced him with Kirk Cousins, would you be the same? I think you’d be the same because those are all good quarterbacks. Now, if you replaced him with some of these Tier 3 guys, would they be as good? I don’t think so.”

18. Mac Jones

Jones makes his QB Tiers debut with a 3.06 average, the 10th-best debut among 49 newcomers since 2015. Herbert (2.14), Prescott (2.52), Mayfield (2.53), Garoppolo (2.58), Burrow (2.58), Watson (2.60), Murray (2.68), Wentz (2.92) and Cousins (2.93) made higher debuts. Mahomes was lower simply because he had started only one game, so voters placed him in Tier 4 provisionally for lack of evidence.

“Mac is going to make good decisions — he sees it,” a defensive coordinator said. “But I don’t think he can carry the game by himself. To me, he is going to be like a Kirk Cousins type where if their team around him is good then I think they will make the playoffs and maybe do some damage.”

Voters respected the way Jones succeeded in a high-pressure environment at Alabama, then went to another high-pressure situation in New England and reached the playoffs as a rookie. A head coach who faced Jones said the quarterback impressed him in live action, showing enough to suggest he might ascend into Tier 2. Others noted that Jones possessed no special traits.

“I think if Mac Jones wasn’t in New England and with that hype machine, maybe he would be viewed a little differently,” a coach from an AFC East rival said. “If Mac Jones was in Jacksonville last year, how would he have been? How would people feel about him?”

No one is comparing New England to Jacksonville, but voters did express consternation over the Patriots’ handling of their offensive staff following Josh McDaniels’ departure to the Raiders.

“I think Mac Jones is doing all the right things, but is New England helping him?” an offensive coach said. “We have been told his quarterback coach is Joe Judge, and I can’t name the last time he’s developed any quarterbacks. The head coach is more involved, but there are 57 other moving parts on any given day that Bill Belichick must attend to. Unless Bill gets 48 hours in a 24-hour day, then he is not getting enough time to develop a quarterback.”

19. Baker Mayfield

Mayfield cost the Panthers $4.858 million in salary and a 2024 fifth-round pick that could upgrade to a fourth-rounder. That’s a bargain when Sam Darnold is the alternative. But it’s not necessarily the answer.

“Baker is not showing up at training camp and (instantly) becoming a 2 for Carolina,” a GM said.

“I think he’s a 3 with upside, an interesting guy,” a head coach said.

“He needs to get humbled fast or his career is going to be over,” a quarterbacks coach said.

Mayfield has been better than Darnold, but he’s had better players around him, and more favorable structure.

“If he is humbled and wants to learn and grow and become a better quarterback and develop, Baker can probably be solid then — Jimmy Garoppolo-ish solid,” a defensive coordinator said.

A head coach from a team with an upper-tier quarterback raised an interesting point regarding Mayfield’s departure from the Browns.

“Something is missing there, and I don’t know what it is,” the head coach said. “I like his feistiness. I’m OK with that. He’s not bad, but there’s not one player that stuck up for him during this whole thing. Not one guy said, ‘Hey, this is my guy.’ So, I don’t know. If you put the tape on, his play is not brutal.”

An evaluator suggested Mayfield was “average at best” despite playing in “the most quarterback friendly system there is” with Cleveland.

“I think everything has to be perfect to win with those guys,” this evaluator said before Mayfield was traded to Carolina. “I don’t know where Baker goes and makes an appreciable difference.”

T-20. Jalen Hurts

Hurts jumped 10 spots from last season, the largest year-over-year gain (Burrow climbed nine spots). Some of that was because Hurts debuted so low as a player with minimal experience and a modest pedigree, but voters also admire Hurts for his approach to the game despite seeing limitations that most feel will prevent Hurts from climbing into Tier 2.

“He is a poor man’s Baltimore guy (Jackson) because he can’t run that fast, but he’s so serious about his job, and he’s physically and mentally tough,” an offensive coach said. “He will play very, very consistent. He just won’t be a good enough passer over time to get out of the 3s.”

A quandary awaits Philadelphia if Hurts remains the starter.

“Their staff did a masterful job adjusting the offense for Hurts,” a defensive coach said. “It is just very rare that you are going to have sustainable success running a college-style offense with a limited passer. You are on a path where you are either going to recreate Baltimore’s offense or Hurts is going to prove to you that he can play in a pro-style offense or you are going to get a new quarterback.”

Two head coaches did think Hurts could ascend into Tier 2.

“Jalen is a 3 with an arrow to maybe a 2,” one of the head coaches said. “I love the guy. We couldn’t take him as high as Philly took him, him but if he would have fallen, we were definitely interested. I like that he wants to be really good, and I thought he was playing some pretty good football last year.”

The prevailing thought on Hurts is that he’s doing an excellent job running an offense that the Eagles’ coaching staff has effectively tailored to his strengths, and that he’ll need to grow considerably as a passer for Philly to contend.

“If the guy can’t stand there and win on third down with his arm, you don’t have a chance,” an offensive coordinator said.

T-20. Carson Wentz

Wentz went from the Eagles to the Colts to the Commanders in 13 months. His average tier vote has fallen for the fourth consecutive year, from 1.84 (ninth) in 2018 to 3.36 (20th) this year.

“He’s got two fingers on the Tier 3 ledge,” a quarterbacks coach said. “How many more chances can you get? He has to be praying to the football gods, saying, ‘Thank you, again,’ because not many people get this many opportunities to prove themselves. I’m just about ready to pull the trigger on him as a 5 after the Jacksonville game and that interception from the end zone against the Titans in a huge game. You can’t make those decisions.”

You can make those decisions if you’ve already earned $100 million, as Wentz has, and if a team like Washington is eager to hand you another $28 million for this season, which will be the case.

“No one thinks it because he’s a small-school kid, but he was like the God at North Dakota State, everyone told him how great he was,” a defensive coach said. “And then he has some success as a rookie and they win the Super Bowl and it’s like Wentzylvania and the team’s like, ‘Oh, we’ve got it figured out,’ and I don’t know that he had it figured out. I don’t know that he has gone through that process and understood how to be a professional, make himself better. He thought it just happened. I just I don’t think the kid ever looked internally and said, ‘It’s my fault, I have to do this better, I have to prepare differently.’ ”

One voter marveled at how the Colts were willing to trade Wentz without having a fallback.

“They were telling us they would prefer anyone over him,” this voter said. “The only reason I’m this strong against him is that is my evaluation from watching him play. But adding information of what the team that is with him on an intimate level on a daily basis, by going from having Wentz to having none, zero, that tells me that my evaluation of him from afar matches the evaluation internally. If Carson Wentz was not a first-round pick, would he be in the league right now?”

Any quarterback who throws 27 touchdown passes against seven interceptions and has a winning record as a starter — as the case was for Wentz last season — will have a home in the league. But with Hurts rising and Wentz falling, the current and former Philadelphia quarterbacks find themselves tied but heading in opposite directions.

“I was high on him coming out in his rookie year,” a head coach said. “But when he didn’t get along at the Colts, I just went, ‘Oh, boy.’ That, to me, was the last straw. I mean, that was Frank Reich’s guy. Something isn’t right there.”

It could be that Wentz wasn’t all that bad in Indianapolis, and that Colts owner Jim Irsay unfairly took out his frustrations on the quarterback, who rankled the owner by refusing COVID-19 vaccination.

“If Carson does exactly what he did last year, throws 27 touchdowns with seven interceptions, but Washington makes it as a wild card, what would that do to him the next year?” an offensive coach asked.

22. Jared Goff

Goff was selected first and Wentz second in the 2016 draft. The order is reversed in QB Tiers this year, with Wentz one slot ahead of Goff and both players holding on.

“I think it’s more of Goff’s ability not to lose the game than to win the game that makes him a 3,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He is still among the top 32 starters. He gives Detroit a chance to win even though he just checks the ball down and allows the defense to do what they do with Aaron Glenn and company.”

A defensive coach had trouble shaking from his mind how the Lions played late in their tie with Pittsburgh last season.

“It was third-and-8 and they were running the ball,” this coach said. “That was so bad. Now, it helped them get a tie. Pittsburgh turned it over twice in overtime on Detroit’s side of the field. You can say what you want, they did not trust that guy because he was not very good.”

Goff peaked in Tier 2 after reaching a Super Bowl with the Rams. His stock has fallen every year since then.

“I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt with a 3 because he’s been to a Super Bowl, but he needs the heavy run game and defense,” a head coach said.

23. Trevor Lawrence

Voters gave Lawrence a partial pass on his rookie year given the Urban Meyer debacle, but they did hope to see more flashes of brilliance from the first player chosen in the 2021 draft.

“Hard to judge with the surrounding talent and the situation down there, but we didn’t walk away from that game like we did the year before with Burrow going, ‘OK, yeah, this guy is the f—–g guy,’ ” one voter said. “But he does some good things on tape, makes some throws.”

Some raised concerns about Lawrence’s accuracy and overall throwing ability, while maintaining that there’s enough talent for Lawrence to climb into Tier 2.

“I don’t think he’s a natural thrower of the football — it’s not effortless for him,” a head coach said.

“He’s a little stiff-wristed, didn’t have as loose of an arm slot as I expected to see,” an offensive assistant said.

“But he is a fantastic athlete,” the head coach said. “He is a playmaker. I do think Trevor is going to excel playing for Doug Pederson.”

An offensive coach thought the Jaguars had too many young players around Lawrence last season.

“When you’re the young quarterback, there’s something to having veterans around,” this coach said. “Mac Jones had Hunter Henry and he had the receiver (Nelson) Agholor and the other high-priced guy (Jonnu Smith). That helps the rookie quarterback. I think you’ll see jumps from Trevor this year. I don’t know if we’ll be talking about him as a 2, and certainly I don’t think he will be a 1, but he will be much more comfortable.”

24. Jameis Winston

Winston had 14 touchdowns with three interceptions before suffering a torn ACL last season. The TD-INT ratio was 14-12 for Winston at a similar point during his notorious final season with Tampa Bay in 2019. Winston finished 2021 with career-bests in big-time throw percentage (7.1) and turnover-worthy play rate (3.0), according to Pro Football Focus. Those are positive indicators, but it was only seven starts.

“There’s a lot to like about what he was doing last year,” an offensive coach said. “I’m excited to see what he looks like coming back from injury. I put him as a 3. I think he will end up as a 3, but if he can protect the football with that defense, he might have a shot of really impressing people. The Saints are telling everyone they are all-in on this season. That is exciting if I am Jameis.”

Winston inched up enough in voting this year to cross the border into Tier 3, where he had resided during his final four seasons with Tampa. He has never ranked higher than 17th.

“I think if he was there for Sean Payton, Sean could get him to play like a 2,” a GM said.

Payton’s offensive coordinator, Pete Carmichael, remains with New Orleans.

“I like Jameis because he wants it, he is hungry,” an offensive coach said. “I think he works, and it means something to him and he competes. He just is not a great decision maker, and he is kind of a casual personality. Decision-making improvement is hard to do. I think they have taken the ball out of his hands a little bit. They are trying to coach the renegade out of him.”

TIER 4

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.

25. Justin Fields

The book on Fields says he’s exceptionally smart and should have no trouble learning a new offense but lacks a natural feel for the game, which could limit his ceiling.

“It’s more instincts and awareness to blitzes, the clock, those types of things,” a GM said. “There are some quarterbacks maybe not as smart who have all that.”

A coach with ties to the Bears said he is “cautiously optimistic” about Chicago’s new franchise QB.

“I do think his anticipation in the dropback game needs to improve, but he does throw a really good deep ball and deep cross route where some of those other guys, I did not have that feel in the dropback game of, ‘Can they make certain throws as consistently?’ ” this coach said. “It is everything else he has to figure out. I don’t think he is going to be a top-shelf guy this year, but you are going to trend. You are going to say, ‘We can win with this guy.’ I don’t think he is ever going to be a 1. I think he can climb to maybe a 2, high Tier 3.”

If Fields makes such a jump this season, one voter noted that the Bears’ new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, could become a head coach next offseason, introducing another unwelcome disruption for Fields early in his career. That would be a good problem for the Bears to have, better than other problems the team has faced at the position over the years.

“Fields has the ability, talent, skillset to ascend,” a personnel director said. “I don’t know if he has the weapons around him to ascend at a rapid pace. He should be a better player this year.”

26. Tua Tagovailoa

Skepticism continues to engulf Tagovailoa. Last offseason, voters placed him in Tier 4 partly because they didn’t have enough information to place him elsewhere. This offseason, voters placed him there because they’ve seen enough to say he does not belong higher.

“He is being set up for success with a running game, defense, offensive line and then obviously the impact players at the skill positions,” an offensive coach said. “If there is ever a time for him to be successful, it is this season. What is success? Staying healthy all year and leading his team to the playoffs.”

Voters worry about Tagovailoa’s ability to process quickly enough to protect himself. They questioned how well he identified protections, coverages and mike points, while blaming him for getting hurt against Buffalo when he failed to account for a pass-rusher.

“He’s a guy that I’m still holding on to the edge of my chair when I’m watching him play,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I am still cheering for him and I’m just hoping it doesn’t implode. Having Tyreek Hill and Terron Armstead and all the talent they have, there’s no excuses any more. He’s got to get it done.”

An evaluator called Tagovailoa the most accurate of the recent Alabama quarterbacks, but he called Jalen Hurts and Mac Jones much fiercer competitors, which could help them grind through struggles.

It’s not all negative for Tua, however.

“I’m excited to see what he does with this supporting cast,” an offensive coordinator said. “I’m a big fan of the offense they are installing, getting the quarterback to make quick and easy decisions. I don’t think Tua is moving into a consistent 2, but I could see some people next year saying when he has a good year, that he has some 2 attributes. I like what they’re building around him down there.”

27. Davis Mills

Pre-draft evaluations do not change overnight, but Mills did win over voters to a degree that was not foreseen when Houston used a 2021 third-round choice to select him.

“I love this kid,” a defensive coordinator who faced Mills said. “I think he is so poised. He stands in the pocket, he is able to deliver the ball. I think he knows where to go with the ball. He throws a pretty ball, he throws a catchable ball, he sees the field. He’s a 3.”

Mills had a lower expectations bar to clear than quarterbacks who entered the league as first-round picks, so he could be benefiting from a surprise factor. As in, Mills sure is impressive — for a third-round pick.

“Really like his composure,” a personnel director said. “He makes plays in the passing game. Doesn’t have the best arm but is an adequate passer. He reminds me of a better Andy Dalton.”

Again, if a top-five pick reminded someone of Dalton, it might be seen as a pejorative. A third-rounder becoming Dalton sounds better.

“How about all the hype on Davis Mills,” a former head coach said. “I just don’t see it.”

A personnel director called Mills “pretty interesting” for his anticipation and accuracy, suggesting Mills “is going to surprise a lot of people” this season.

“He’s done some good things,” a former GM said, “but doing good things when your team is no good, that is a whole different thing. He is still a 4 to me. I have yet to see legitimate starter.”

An offensive coach who questioned Mills’ durability and athletic movement entering the draft said he thought Mills had greater upside than Tagovailoa but lacked the support to fare as well this season.

“Liked him coming out in the draft,” a GM said. “If he turns into a Garoppolo, that wouldn’t shock me.”

28. Zach Wilson

Wilson ranked last among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass play as a rookie. Only Josh Rosen was worse by this metric among 34 qualifying rookie quarterbacks during the past decade. That might reflect situations as much as a quarterback’s prospects, although many quarterbacks near the top (Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert) as rookies enjoyed better outlooks than those near the bottom (Rosen, DeShone Kizer, Blake Bortles, E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith, Mitch Trubisky).

“Zach Wilson has got talent — he has ALL the physical talent,” a defensive coach from the AFC East said. “He is not lacking in any skill set from a tools standpoint. They have done a good job trying to draft and surround him with people. It’ll be a big year for him to take a leap. It was a bad team last year, and he made a lot of mistakes. We will have a better sense after this year.”

If you didn’t love Wilson coming out of BYU, there wasn’t enough during his rookie season to change your mind.

“He looks at the rush way too much,” an offensive play caller said. “He is one of those guys who sees the rush and wants to get depth and run right, but you lose the field when you do that.”

A head coach vouched for Wilson’s skill set while noting “there were times where it looked like it was too big for him,” suggesting Wilson needs to settle down this year.

“Tell me one marquee player that he had around him last year,” a quarterbacks coach said. “I still think the sky’s the limit for this kid. He’s got some young weapons now, and I think they are going to be a lot better.”

29. Trey Lance

Lance started two games, played in four others and attempted 71 passes all season, so there wasn’t much to analyze. Based on what voters did see, and based on the learning curve they anticipated for Lance, some said they selfishly hoped San Francisco would make the change from Garoppolo this season.

“That would be like my early Christmas present if they just get rid of Jimmy, so that way he can’t play for them, and then make Trey be your guy,” a coach whose team plays the 49ers this season said.

The 49ers are a contender in the NFC with Garoppolo, even if they haven’t been able to win it all with him. Voters think Lance would struggle initially, with no guarantees he’ll develop.

“I love the skill set (of Lance), but he had ball-accuracy concerns on his tape coming out, and he was really raw,” a head coach said. “The very little I’ve seen of him last season, he’s got a little Tim Tebow to him — it’s a long delivery. It seems like there are some mechanical things he has to work out. But that is from watching a limited number of plays.”

Again, not much to go on, but lots of discussion.

“It’s amazing how quickly you can lose the perception,” an evaluator said. “Three months before the draft, people were like, ‘Ahhh, I’m not sure Trey Lance is a first-rounder.’ Then as it got closer to the draft, ‘Hey, really smart, handles himself really well, has CEO traits, I can understand it.’ And now people are completely dumping on him. It happens at that position more than any other. You either have it or you don’t.”

Voters agreed that Lance struggled against Arizona and did not appear ready to start.

“Sure, the more he plays, the better he will probably get, but he is a 4, and I feel like he is probably the bottom 4 for me,” a voter from the NFC West said. “Just think about it. You get Russell Wilson out of here and now we’ve got Trey Lance playing and it is like, ‘Oh, thank you.’ It just went from a really good quarterback division to being one of the softer divisions.”

30. Daniel Jones

The Giants aren’t betting big on Jones, or else they would have exercised his fifth-year option. Voters aren’t betting big on him, either. Jones debuted in Tier 3 last year, then fell eight spots into Tier 4 this offseason even though voters realize Jones hasn’t had much help.

“He has talent, he obviously can run, he has an OK arm,” a defensive coach said. “That kid holds the ball too long in the pocket, which leads to turnovers. I don’t think he sees the game great. I like (Brian) Daboll, so maybe that will change. I just don’t see it with that kid.”

A head coach said he thought Jones played the game “heavy minded” and would benefit from whatever creativity Daboll brings to the offense.

“I think he is a classic case of a guy who didn’t have enough reps coming out and then realizing pretty quickly, ‘Guess what, it is hard to develop quarterback play with a truncated offseason unless you are doing that on your own,’ ” an offensive coach said. “I think this will be the last season he is a starter and the last season we are talking about him. The same goes for Drew Lock, Mitch Trubisky, all those guys.”

Lock and Trubisky have already changed teams. Jones could be next.

“I think his hope may be going somewhere else, taking a year off and trying to get himself restarted,” an evaluator said. “There is enough talent there, enough intangibles there, he has certainly proven his physical toughness. He was just in a bad, bad situation: offensive line, receivers, coaching was a mess. If nothing else, maybe he can give them a year or two to find their guy because he is professional, he is tough, he is respected in the locker room because of the toughness.”

31. Marcus Mariota

Mariota is back in QB Tiers after a one-year absence, having fallen from as high as 16th in 2017 into the 30s now. This could be his final starting opportunity entering a season.

“The way he has been used is what he is,” a head coach said. “He is a change-of-pace guy, and if he does have to replace your starter, you hope you don’t have to play more than three or four games with him. There are only so many things you can do with him. It can be good in the short term because the opponent has not prepared for him, but after he has been a starter for three or four games, the field definitely tilts to the defense.”

Mariota hasn’t started since leaving Tennessee following the 2019 season. The Raiders used him as a changeup, giving him 13 carries with two pass attempts as Carr’s backup last season.

“Tough guy, teammates respect him, smart,” an evaluator said. “He has a chance, but they are not real talented around him and they are young, which who knows how that is going to go? If you were to make him a 4, it would be more about him staying healthy than his play.”

A quarterbacks coach compared Mariota to Trubisky.

“The biggest thing you have there in Atlanta is the lack of offensive line play,” a personnel director said. “They do have a good tight end, some rotational receivers, some runners that should help them. I just think Mariota does similar to Lamar in that he can run and pass, but at a much lesser production level. He is not as bad as some of these 4s. In a balanced offense, he can be productive.”

32. Sam Darnold

Darnold is competing with Mayfield for the Panthers’ starting job under a head coach on the hot seat, with a coordinator, Ben McAdoo, who last called plays five years ago and is trying to regain a foothold in the league. It’s not yet over for Darnold, but it’s close.

“Sometimes the ability to sort and process on gameday overwhelms him,” a veteran coach said. “And it’s tough. Not everyone can handle the modern pass game, where you might face six defensive personnel groupings and nine coverage/blitz combinations on third down. Darnold wouldn’t be the first who looks the part but can’t play the part.”

Darnold had never received a Tier 5 vote until this offseason, when he got 12 of them. In his defense, he’s struggled in two terrible spots, first with the Jets and now with the Panthers.

“That is unfortunate,” a quarterbacks coach said, “but we just don’t see the good football IQ, which contributes to his struggles. Physically, he has everything. It’s like, come on, what is going on? But it seems like I continue to hear the same thing regardless of where he is. He just can’t put it together.”

33. Mitch Trubisky

Trubisky could have followed Daboll to the Giants for less money and a likely backup role, but instead he landed in Pittsburgh with the Steelers’ coordinator, Matt Canada, as a bridge to rookie Kenny Pickett.

“I can’t say he’s a legitimate starter,” a defensive coach said. “There’s going to be pressure because they have a first-round quarterback. Can Mitch rise above that, ignore that, focus on the future and get the job done? Or will he resort back to having the doubt, especially after an interception or something bad happened? Does he maintain his composure or do the dominoes continue to fall?”

Trubisky attempted eight passes during his one season in Buffalo.

“That just goes to show, if you are not a jerk you can get resurrected by relaxing for a year and letting the rest of the (crummy) quarterbacks be (crummy) so that you can look good, and then they’ll circle back to you,” an offensive coach said.

Voters questioned Trubisky’s ability to process the game.

“We played him a couple times in Chicago and he struggled, threw into a lot of coverages,” a defensive coach said. “They ran some of that Kansas City gimmicky stuff, but when it came down to it, he didn’t see pressures very well. He did not diagnose defenses very well at all.”

34. Drew Lock

The Seahawks’ two potential starting quarterbacks round out the survey this year.

“I think they are looking for a guy in a year,” an evaluator said. “A lot of what you feel about Drew is whether you liked him coming out or not. And as you recall, it was a mixed bag coming out.”

Voters appreciated Lock’s physical talent, not his ability to make it translate.

“There is hope and talent with Drew Lock,” an evaluator said, “but there is inconsistency. And there has always been inconsistency. You can’t debate his talent. He’s got size, athletic ability, excellent arm strength, all those things. But the inconsistency is the thing. Pete (Carroll) will have a chance to make him play his best, playing it the right way, because he’s got all the tools.”

Visions linger of the Bengals’ Khalid Kareem taking away the ball from Lock on a run near the goal line last season.

“The thing about Lock is, all the bad decisions he made in Denver when he got a chance to play were all the same bad decisions he made at Missouri,” an offensive coordinator said. “He is not a good decision maker, and he doesn’t play smart. It’s not just bad decisions. He does crazy stuff on top of it. Maybe they can help him with that.”

As a head coach put it: “All kinds of talent. I don’t know how he is wired … I want to like him and I’m pulling him, but there is something missing there.”

TIER 5

A Tier 5 quarterback is best suited as a backup.

35. Geno Smith

Voters liked Smith as a backup, which is why he got so many Tier 5 votes. The Seahawks are letting him compete with Lock for the starting job.

“Everybody who has ever coached him loved this guy,” a head coach said of Smith. “You love him as your backup. If he has to start more than four or five games, I don’t see him going to do the whole thing.”

The Seahawks averaged 18.0 offensive points per game in Smith’s three starts last season. The team went 1-2 in those games. The offense finished with negative EPA in the one victory with Smith in the lineup as Seattle routed Jacksonville on the strength of its defense and special teams.

“Unfortunately, I got to say, he’s a 5,” a quarterbacks coach said. “He does a good job when he comes off the bench of maintaining things and managing the game well. He’s not going to elevate the team at this point. I think he’s good to come out of the bullpen and pitch four or five good innings, then give it back to the ace to close things out.”

(Top photo illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Matthew Stockman, Mike Ehrmann, Jamie Squire and Joshua Bessex / Getty Images)