EVANSTON, Ill. — That was ugly. It’s still a win, though. The second-ranked Buckeyes overcame a slow start and inclement weather to beat Northwestern 21-7 on Saturday afternoon. Here are seven thoughts from a game that left more questions than answers.
1. OK, we have a problem with the rushing attack. Ohio State ran for 207 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry. On paper that looks great, but take into account that quarterback C.J. Stroud had 79 of those yards on six carries. When it comes to lining up and running the ball, Ohio State has struggled the last three weeks. Since the bye week, Ohio State has run for 371 yards on a 4.1-yard average. That’s down from a 6.0-yard average in the first six weeks of the season.
Advertisement
Miyan Williams returned Saturday after leaving last week’s game with an injury and ran for 111 yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts. TreVeyon Henderson didn’t play, missing his first game since Rutgers on Oct. 1.
It would help to get both running backs healthy, but the problem isn’t the backs. I wrote last week that I didn’t think the struggles against Penn State were because of a lack of talent on the offensive line. I still believe that there’s talent up front. The Buckeyes simply aren’t winning the one-on-one battles.
The weather didn’t help, either.
Final from Evanston.#GoBucks pic.twitter.com/Qe99uniinq
— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 5, 2022
And the opponent deserves some credit.
Northwestern decided to play man coverage on the outside with no safety help and bring two extra players into the box to stop the run.
That gave Ohio State problems, coach Ryan Day said.
“There’s only two things you can do at that point,” Day said. “One, you get to the extra defender and you try to run them over, which Miyan did a couple times. Or you get the quarterback involved and try to equate numbers through the quarterback, which is not something we typically do. This was an extreme case.”
Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country on third down, entering the game with a 50 percent conversion rate (tied for 14th nationally). That tanked Saturday as Ohio State converted just 4 of 15 third-down attempts against a Northwestern defense that had allowed a 44.3 percent conversion rate (111th nationally). That’s a problem itself.
Ohio State failed on its first eight third-down attempts.
Worse than that, though, was Ohio State’s inability to run on short-yardage downs. Ohio State had third-and-1 two times in the first half and didn’t convert on two rushing attempts. It had a fourth-and-1, as well, and didn’t convert. That’s a big problem, even with the weather.
Advertisement
“We are going to look at it and realize we could’ve moved guys. Even if there are two extra guys in the box, we still have to convert in those situations,” Day said. “No excuse, we have to do a better job for sure, but I think that played into some of those situations.”
You can justify an inconsistent passing attack on the rain and wind, but not getting 1 yard against the No. 109 rushing defense in the country is concerning.
At times this season you’ve been able to attribute a loss of yards to Williams or Henderson dancing in the backfield too much. Not Saturday. The Wildcats defensive line too often dominated at the point of attack.
If Ohio State wants to reach its goals — and we know what those are — it has to get its run game sorted out. And fast.
2. Stroud seems to always come through when Ohio State needs him. He didn’t have the best day as a passer, completing only 10 of 26 passes for 76 yards. I think you can give him a pass due to the weather.
Day said he had never coached a game in conditions like that.
“I don’t know what the numbers were, but there must’ve been 30 mph winds,” he said. “If you ever tried playing golf in 30 mph winds, it’s hard to get it off the tee — forget throwing the football.”
There was a high wind warning throughout the entire game, which according to the National Weather Service included southwest winds from 20-to-30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. Then a severe thunderstorm came through Evanston in the second quarter and made things worse.
It was nearly impossible for Stroud to deliver a good ball.
“I was ripping through it a little bit,” Stroud said. “It’s hard to tell where the ball is going. … It’s tough playing in the Big Ten so you have to find ways to win. It was tough.”
With the weather taking away Ohio State’s passing game, Stroud had to turn into a runner. He didn’t do it often — he averaged 13.2 yards on six carries — but he had his moments. He broke off big runs on two of Ohio State’s three touchdown drives.
Advertisement
In the first half, with Ohio State trailing 7-0, he took a read option 16 yards to convert a fourth-and-1. On the next play, Day called a pass, but Stroud scrambled to extend the play. Instead of forcing a throw, he ran for 6 yards to keep the drive going. Wide receiver Emeka Egbuka scored on a reverse the next play from 15 yards away.
In the fourth quarter, with Ohio State leading 14-7, Stroud took another option 44 yards to the Northwestern 5-yard line. That led to Williams’ second touchdown of the game and gave Ohio State some cushion.
Those option runs for Stroud are a last resort, Day said.
“We know how important it is to keep C.J. healthy, and he’s not going to take shots unless we need him to,” Day said. “We needed him to today and he did it. You can see he’s capable when we need him to do it for us.”
Though there isn’t much talk about Stroud’s legs when it comes to his NFL evaluations, he said he’s willing to run the ball. He just lets Day call the play and makes his read from there.
“It felt good to get a couple runs in today and definitely hopefully coach Day calls some more runs, maybe,” Stroud said. “Everybody in the world will be happier with me.”
3. One positive note for the offense: It converted both red zone trips into touchdowns — Williams on the 2-yard run and Egbuka on the 15-yarder.
Ohio State turned 12 red zone visits into six touchdowns and five field goals against Iowa and Penn State.
The wind would’ve made kicking a field goal very difficult, so it’s good Ohio State was able to capitalize with touchdowns.
4. There was a moment in the first quarter when it looked like Ohio State was in serious trouble. Northwestern put together an 80-yard drive in nine plays, gashing the Buckeyes defense for 8.7 yards per carry. It was unlike anything we’ve seen before this season.
Advertisement
Northwestern mixed in some quarterback runs with the option and gave Ohio State fits.
After that, though, the defense returned to its dominant self. The Buckeyes held Northwestern to 285 total yards in the game — only 200 after that touchdown drive. It forced Northwestern into difficult situations and held the Wildcats to just 6-of-16 on third down.
Day gave the defense credit for fighting through a physical game after giving up the early score.
“I think our defense played strong,” he said. “As the game wore on you realized the pass wasn’t going to happen. You just bring guys lower and lower in the box. I thought the short-yardage situations were excellent.”
In the last three weeks, we’ve seen Ohio State’s offense go through scoring droughts. In each game, the defense has answered the call.
We’re long past wondering whether this is an elite defense. It’s one of the best in the country.
The Jim Knowles stock continues to rise.
5. A quick one here, but Ohio State played four linebackers at a time in the second half. Known for his 4-2-5 defense, Knowles played three linebackers against Iowa at times. He added even one more against Northwestern.
It was a smart adjustment, considering Northwestern attempted one designed pass from the 12:51 mark of the second quarter until the fourth quarter.
6. Once again, Ohio State took the field without key starters. Neither Henderson nor wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba played Saturday. It was the seventh missed game of the season for Smith-Njigba, who has yet to play a full game this season.
7. If you asked me a month ago what team would win the national championship, I would’ve said Ohio State. Honestly, even with Tennessee’s emergence, I still gave the Buckeyes a good shot to win the title game as of a few weeks ago.
Now, I’m not sure.
Advertisement
For me, the question no longer is whether Ohio State is the national championship favorite — it’s can the Buckeyes beat Michigan and win the Big Ten championship? Ohio State will probably still be the favorite, but the line is shrinking.
Since the bye week, Ohio State’s offense has been out of sorts. We went from wondering whether this team had one of the best offenses in recent memory to asking whether it can convert third-and-short.
The rushing attack is nonexistent.
The offense hasn’t played well in the first half. Ohio State has scored 119 points in the last three games — only 46 came in the first half.
And injuries continue to pile up. I’m not a believer that you can just put people back in the lineup for a big game and expect them to turn it on, but the return of Henderson and Smith-Njigba will be big.
Ohio State still has issues. The Buckeyes won’t be seriously threatened before playing Michigan, but can they overcome their problems in time for the game Nov. 26 — especially if the weather is a factor? And if they can, are they good enough to win two games in a row against elite competition in the Playoff?
(Photo of Miyan Williams: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
