The Phillies struck first in the star-studded free-agent shortstop market, reaching an agreement with Trea Turner on an 11-year, $300 million contract, major-league sources confirmed to The Athletic on Monday. The deal includes a full no-trade clause, sources said.
So what does this mean for the Phillies, the Dodgers and the three remaining elite free-agent shortstops? And how will the contract age? Our panel of writers weighs in.
What does signing Turner mean for the Phillies in the short term and long term?
In Trea Turner, the Phillies have filled two holes with a premium athlete. They have secured their shortstop and leadoff hitter for the foreseeable future. They paid a steep price for it, but Turner was always the Phillies’ priority. He has a strong relationship with Kevin Long, the veteran hitting coach who has wielded influence over the Phillies’ acquisition strategies. He has played with Bryce Harper, who had lobbied for Turner to join him. Turner wanted to be on the East Coast and, by agreeing to an 11-year deal with a full no-trade clause, he committed to finishing his career with the Phillies.
Advertisement
The Phillies can shift Bryson Stott to second base, where he will be a plus defender. Under president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, the club has made multiple moves to reinforce the roster up the middle. He committed record dollars to catcher J.T. Realmuto last year. Then, he traded for center fielder Brandon Marsh this summer. Now, with Stott and Turner as the double-play tandem, the Phillies have better defense everywhere.
The Phillies followed a similar negotiation principle with Turner as they did on Harper. They agreed to a longer term to lower the annual average value of the contract. Turner’s camp wanted the $300 million figure. The Phillies were fine with that — if it came over an extra year or two. The annual hit of $27.3 million means the Phillies have more wiggle room to add around Turner and Harper, who are now united for the remainder of their careers. The Phillies soared past the luxury-tax barrier this past season for the first time in club history. They will do it again in 2023, multiple sources said Monday, and the team could push against the $253 million figure that triggers more penalties ($233 million is the initial tax threshold). The 2023 Phillies will be the most expensive team the franchise has ever fielded. It’s a serious commitment from John Middleton, the team’s managing partner, and the rest of the ownership group.
By extending the payroll even further, the Phillies can shift their attention to upgrading their pitching. They will be in the market for a mid-rotation starter. They will need bullpen reinforcements. These are all things they can still afford — even after awarding a massive contract to Turner. — Matt Gelb
One more parallel between the Turner signing and the Harper negotiations:
In 2019, there was speculation that Manny Machado would wait until Harper (and Scott Boras) agreed. But once the Padres got to $300M, that changed.
Likewise, when the Phillies got to $300M, Turner jumped.
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 5, 2022
What will the Dodgers do now at shortstop?
The Dodgers have a bevy of options at shortstop, most of which just got much more expensive with Trea Turner jump-starting the market and getting $300 million. The Dodgers already missed out on landing Justin Verlander and have starting pitching needs, all while they consider staying under the $233 million luxury-tax threshold. So although the Dodgers will certainly come up in discussions for the remaining big free-agent shortstops — Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson — they’ll also be willing to seek out shortstop help via trade, with names such as Milwaukee’s Willy Adames, Chicago’s Tim Anderson or Cleveland’s Amed Rosario making some sense. The Dodgers also have expressed some confidence in Gavin Lux sliding over and being an everyday shortstop, but there are alternatives they’ll seek out. — Fabian Ardaya
Advertisement
What’s next for the free-agent shortstop market?
When it comes to Trea Turner’s new contract, neither the terms (11 years, $300 million) nor the location (Philadelphia) should come as a surprise. Francisco Lindor’s $341 million deal with the Mets set the market for elite shortstops in the spring of 2021. It was later that summer when the Phillies began to telegraph their affection for Turner, a longtime National League East foil with Washington.
So, no, this is far from shocking. But the reverberations should be fascinating to follow. In short order, this contract appears to be a boon for the other shortstops available this winter, specifically Carlos Correa.
The bidding for Correa may be delayed until there is a resolution with Aaron Judge, given San Francisco’s affection for both players. Correa figures to draft off this deal from Turner. Correa is a year younger, with an offensive profile that figures to age better than Turner’s speed-based game. A decade-long deal for Correa no longer looks so far-fetched. The trickle-down effect is likely to extend to Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, the other two star shortstops available. — Andy McCullough
Why Philly made sense as a destination for Turner
It’s not surprising Trea Turner valued the length of a potential deal, as the low-key shortstop always wanted stability and has never sought out the spotlight. In Philly, he will rejoin his former Nationals teammate Bryce Harper, who is the face of the organization, and Turner —now another $300 million man— will do what he prefers: just play baseball and let others do most of the talking.
Philadelphia’s success this past year combined with the ability to offer a contract that will keep Turner signed until he’s 40 years old were important factors, but there are also other comforts. In addition to Harper, Turner will be reunited with hitting coach Kevin Long, who also was previously in Washington. He will have spring training in Florida, where Turner and his family live in the offseason. And he’ll have a pretty good chance, as he did with the Dodgers every year, to play deep into October.
Advertisement
For the Phillies, stretching the length of Turner’s deal out enables them to keep the AAV lower and thus helps them fill out the rest of their roster around stars like Turner and Harper for years to come. For baseball, Turner’s signing sets a precedent for shortstops this winter as the 29-year-old was considered the top shortstop available for his bat, defense and ability to steal bases. — Brittany Ghiroli
How will Turner’s contract age?
At some point, we’re just going to have to get used to it. This is the 10th $300 million deal in baseball history, and the way inflation works, we’re going to get more of them going forward. And just because it’s a big deal doesn’t mean it will be a bad deal.
What makes this one a little different than the other eight deals of that size signed by position players is that Trea Turner, at 29, will be the oldest to sign for that much money. That means fewer years in that peak age range for the Phillies, and maybe some tough years at the end of the deal.
Have we ever seen a free-agent contract like Trea Turner's? Not one this long and rich for a middle infielder.
Contracts of 10+ years, $200+ million
Free-agent middle IF:Turner, 11 yrs, $300 M
Seager, 10 yrs, $325 M
A-Rod, 10 years, $252 M
Cano, 10 years, $240 M— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 5, 2022
It’s not hugely precise, but an easy way to “age” a player past 30 is to remove a half-win of production from their WAR projections for every year. If you do that 11 times to the excellent, top-20 type projection Turner has, you get a couple years of replacement-level work at the end, and a contract that will pay him more than the market rate for every win above replacement, around $12 million per win.
But is that the right way to age him? Jeff Zimmerman once found that fast players age better than the normal population, as their speed allows them to remain productive with the glove and on the basepaths longer. Turner was the fifth-fastest man in MLB this year – it seems unlikely he’ll be a plodding DH in 10 years; maybe it’s more likely he’s a decent corner outfield defender or second baseman with some speed and the ability to make contact, keeping him above replacement level based on those tools even as they age. If you age Turner 0.4 wins per year instead of half a win, the Phillies are spending the market rate, and his late-career utility could make all the difference for how people view this contract in 10 years.
That said, Robinson Canó was the only second baseman or corner outfielder who was 38 or older last season. It’s much more likely that those last couple of contract years are just the price the Phillies were willing to pay to get a prime-time player on a team that got so close to winning it all this year.
Get better today. Worry about tomorrow, tomorrow. — Eno Sarris
(Photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)