NEW YORK — January was always the month the Golden State Warriors’ front office, historically patient in-season, would undertake a more concrete roster reassessment. There’s no sense that a seismic shake-up is on the horizon, but fringe personnel moves before the trade deadline could be necessary to jolt a perceived contender back to life. They maintain that they’re still in wait-and-see mode.
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Until then, the current product on the ground level is in a race to solve its issues before the situation becomes too dire. The Warriors are 15-18 after a 1-5 road trip that included the temporary loss of Stephen Curry to a tricky shoulder injury. They aren’t expected to get Curry back during this upcoming eight-game homestand, a possible season-altering stretch depending on whether they’re able to reverse out of this spiral.
It begins on Christmas with a Memphis Grizzlies team that will be outwardly motivated to dig the Warriors deeper into the dirt.
“We understand where we are,” Draymond Green told The Athletic. “We understand what we need to do. We also understand the circumstances. This won’t be the position we’re in for a long time, but it’s where we are right now. We’ve been a very good team at home. There will be a comfort for the guys. That’ll be helpful. Got to build momentum.”
There’s reason to doubt the Warriors’ ability to climb back to the championship mountaintop. They’re 11th in the Western Conference with an aging core, a group of veteran additions who haven’t clicked like last season’s crop and a back end of the roster overflowing with extra young players who have so far been incapable of adding to a winning mix.
Where’s the optimism level? Green was asked this question in a Brooklyn locker room after the Warriors were whacked by 30 points. His eyes bulged open. He tilted his head to the side. He grinned. The message: Why even ask?
“I’m the same guy who everyone told was crazy when I said we were going to win a championship last year,” Green said.
That opinion presumably hasn’t changed?
“Anybody proved otherwise yet?” Green asked.
The Warriors had empty stretches last regular season when an eventual championship seemed far-fetched. They were 1-7 during a particularly bad March period and were a tick below mediocre in the season’s last 28 games: 12-16 record, 22nd in offense, 11th in defense, appearing nothing like a contender. Two months later, they steamrolled to a Game 6 win in Boston to secure the title.
That is a rise sometimes referenced within the organization’s walls, an experience that only adds to their collective self-assured exterior. Fully healthy come April, they’ll need the same team to beat them four times in seven games to believe it can be done.
Steve Kerr is seated in the first row at Madison Square Garden after shootaround to prep for the New York Knicks. Two days before, the Warriors beat the Raptors in Toronto for only their third road win of the season and first win without Curry. Jordan Poole scored 43 points. Klay Thompson played a controlled game. Green looked bouncy. It felt like a possible spark.
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But Kerr had just been informed that Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green were ill. Both would miss the two games in New York. Curry and Andrew Wiggins also were missing. The rotation had thinned to an uncompetitive level against two of the league’s hottest teams. The Warriors were smacked both nights.
These were the type of attrition losses they could afford in the middle of last regular season. Their veteran-filled rotation clicked in training camp, racing them out to an 18-2 start and a 27-6 record on Christmas that gave them enough cushion to absorb slumps and still maintain the third seed in the West.
That template was flipped on its head this season. Training camp couldn’t have gone worse. They had an overseas trip that hindered preparation and then the infamous Draymond Green practice punch that shook the franchise foundation during preseason. Thompson’s lack of summer basketball put him behind schedule. Poole opened the season in a shooting funk.
Maybe a more veteran, cohesive rotation could’ve weathered that adversity. But the Warriors committed to their growing stable of young players, and they were cobbled together into an odd mix that face-planted out of the gate. The Warriors went 3-7, including an 0-5 disaster trip to Charlotte, Detroit, Miami, Orlando and New Orleans.
“It put us in a hole,” Kerr told The Athletic. “Those five East Coast games were all winnable. The first one was Charlotte. You got a four-point lead with a minute to go and the ball. We gotta win that game. The whole trip was kind of a mess. We were trying new rotations, new guys. You can’t just say, ‘Oh, we screwed up in those five road games.’ You have to analyze what was happening. We weren’t where we needed to be. I felt like we were behind. We’ve been swimming upstream since.”
That changed the urgency level. The organization’s decision-makers expected a more difficult regular season when rearranging the roster, promoting the recent draft picks to bigger roles. But they’d assumed enough wins through the turbulence would allow for elongated growth. That 3-7 stumble altered the equation. Immediate wins became a bigger priority. Pressure came from the veterans. Kerr gave the rotation a facelift.
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“If we’re 6-4 instead of 3-7, there’s a little bit more a sense of calm,” Kerr said. “But I always love the Bill Parcells quote: ‘You are what your record says you are.’ That’s the truth. When we were 3-7, we were 3-7. That’s who we were. We weren’t playing well. So we needed to change up the rotation. Multiple things had to happen.”
James Wiseman was sent to the G League. Moses Moody’s minutes mostly disappeared. Draymond Green eventually joined the second unit, solving the non-Curry minutes. Anthony Lamb and Ty Jerome — the two older two-way players — entered the picture. They went 7-3 in the next 10 to at least stabilize the present, but the bigger picture questions only grew.
The Warriors have an open roster spot and should be an appealing buyout destination. Andre Iguodala will appear at some point. More trade candidates at a reasonable price will become available closer to the deadline. There are some outside options for a late-rotation upgrade.
But barring a major shake-up — and, again, that isn’t expected — they need a player or two from their ordained next generation to fast forward into the current timeline. Of the candidates, Jonathan Kuminga has become the likeliest. Through this 15-18 storm, he’s delivered the most production and promise as a strong 6-foot-8 switchable wing who can guard in a playoff setting.
“Jonathan’s in a really good place,” Kerr said. “He’s embraced his role as a defensive-minded guard-the-best-guy type player. He’s embraced a more patient role offensively, figuring out when to shoot, when not to shoot, when to move the ball on. There’s still young mistakes. But his approach, his attitude, his willingness to be coached, it’s all on the rise.”
Kuminga defended Luka Dončić capably during long stretches of a game in Dallas. He scored 24 points and blocked a Jordan Clarkson crunchtime shot in isolation that should’ve sealed a win in Utah (before they gifted away another road loss in the final minute). Then he was a two-way force against Jayson Tatum and the Celtics in the Warriors’ best win of the season. That night, Curry said Kuminga clearly “belonged” in a playoff-level environment.
“It’s hard to find guys like that who can guard one through five,” Kerr said. “He’s a great kid. He might be a little misunderstood because of his body language. He’s told me, ‘I may look unhappy, but I’m not.’ His nature is (expressive). We’ve just really tried to embrace the joy in the game, understand that body language matters. Over the last month, all of that stuff has really improved.”
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There are still hiccups. Kuminga’s momentum slowed after that Boston game. He wasn’t great on the 1-5 road trip. His knee acted up against the Raptors. He went 1-of-9 with some key early turnovers against the Nets. But the overall organizational feeling about Kuminga is increasingly positive. There’s belief he can be relied upon when it matters.
But lessons remain, mostly on the offensive end. Kuminga has long-term ambitions of becoming a go-to scorer. On the current Warriors, they need him to be an off-ball slasher who may go minutes at a time without being featured. It’s a difficult balance.
“He came down the other night in Toronto with 20 seconds on the shot clock and took a pull up 15-footer,” Kerr said. “I didn’t love that shot.”
Here is the possession Kerr is referencing.
It’s impossible and misguided to strip all the offensive aggressiveness from Kuminga’s game. As an explosive above-the-rim wing, he can give the Warriors plenty on that end and, in the long term, an improved jumper would allow him to become a high-level difference-maker.
Kerr said he’s fine with Kuminga taking jumpers. It just matters the type.
“First play of the Sixers game,” Kerr said. “We come down. We swing the ball side-to-side. There’s a ton of movement. The defense is shifting around. He catches the ball on the elbow after really a great possession. We’ve got control of the possession. He’s wide open. He pulls up. I thought that was a great possession.”
Here is that clip. The ball begins in Kuminga’s hands in transition. He drives and kicks. Four passes later it lands back in his hands. He settles in for a jumper over a sagging Joel Embiid.
Both possessions ended in a Kuminga 15-footer. What’s the difference?
“For a young player, he’s got to understand the nuance of the fact that even though they are basically the same — a midrange 15-footer — one is early in the clock with no movement. Bad shot. The other is later in the clock after where we’ve explored avenues, scrambled their defense, won the possession, now you’re open. Take it. That’s not black and white. That’s feel and nuance and where all young players need to figure out the game.”
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That’s a problem Kerr has seen with his entire team — not just Kuminga — in their worst moments this season. He referenced the loss to the Sixers. They lost control of the game with a string of out-of-control, empty possessions. Poole tossed an ambitious alley-oop attempt out of bounds. DiVincenzo raced twice into Joel Embiid blocks. Kuminga tried a Euro step against two defenders in transition.
“We talked in practice the next day to him and Jordan and Donte that, unless you have an advantage in transition, there’s so much behind the play that’s going to get you a wide-open look,” Kerr said. “That was our whole film session.”
This is the Kuminga Euro step into transition traffic.
As the Warriors continue to search for growth moments for their young players, this was an example. They hammered Kuminga on it in film, and he adjusted to it the next game. Early in his first stint against the Raptors, he used his length to create a steal, pushed it into transition and, instead of attacking the congested area, he dropped it off to DiVincenzo, who found the red-hot Poole for an open 3.
“That’s the one,” Kerr said. “Understand you can’t always be in attack mode. You have to gain an advantage first. Take the defense out of their shell. That’s how you control a game with one really good decision after another.”
Here is the possession.
The Warriors are running a similar trial-and-error approach with Wiseman, but the growth work is being done mostly in Santa Cruz. He spent nearly a month in the G League. His focus is on the defensive side of the ball.
“I think the G League experience has been great,” Kerr said. “I know he only played seven minutes in Philadelphia (after returning). But defensively he was in the right spot literally every time, which wasn’t the case early in the year.”
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Center is the most difficult and important defensive position in the NBA. Wiseman has shown some obvious offensive flashes. In limited minutes in the first five games of the season, he scored eight, 11, 14, 12 and 10 points on better than 60 percent shooting. In a free environment, he scored 30 points on 12-of-14 shooting against the Nets to close the road trip. In certain matchups, they can use his skill set offensively. Go back and watch the opening night win over the Lakers.
But the Warriors need to be a consistent top-10 level defense to return to their championship form. In Wiseman’s 216 minutes this season, the Warriors have a 125.1 defensive rating. That’s unsustainable for a team suddenly desperate to claw out every regular-season win it can find.
“That’s the biggest thing,” Kerr said. “It’s his defensive awareness. Offensively, we know he can score. The guy is always going to be able to score. Regardless of what happens in the short term, if he stays healthy, he’s going to have a good career and score a lot of points. But what we need is defensive awareness and the ability to patrol the paint, rim protect. I think his few weeks in Santa Cruz, the practice time he got, the individual attention from Seth Cooper and his staff, was helpful.”
Is that just placement on pick-and-rolls?
“Placement on pick-and-roll. Rotations. Even like elbow stuff,” Kerr said. “On a horns set, if he’s guarding a big and the big pops to the elbow and catches and there are cutters going to the rim, he can’t be pressed up against his guy. He’s gotta back off his guy. If the point guard passes to the big at the elbow and the point guard comes off that same side and cuts right to the rim, James is the protect guy. If his guy wants to turn and shoot, we are fine with that. It’s a center taking a 15-footer. You live with that.”
Kerr began designing another theoretical play on the MSG court. He pointed at the opposite sideline and imagined an inbound with a cleared side of the court. The center, in this situation, is guarding a big man who is spread wide on the overloaded side. He needs to be in help.
“Then let’s say they curl a guard from the top of the key and James is guarding the far side elbow,” Kerr said. “That whole side is cleared. The guard comes off and curls right to the rim. James has to be back. Early in the season, he’d be pressed up on his guy and give up a layup.”
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Kerr has seen an increased sense of pattern recognition since Wiseman returned from Santa Cruz.
“These are the nuances and the type of plays we’re discussing,” Kerr said. “The five man is literally anchoring the defense. So until you’re comfortable and proficient making those type of plays, it’s tough to get stops. As a big guy, I tell James all the time: The paint is yours. When you only have three games of college experience, a half-season in the NBA, injured for a year-and-a-half, this is all natural. It’s all normal. He’s not supposed to just know all this stuff automatically. So you have to embrace the process of teaching him and he has to embrace the process of learning.”
He goes back to those seven minutes against the Sixers.
“You just watch his minutes,” Kerr said. “His cat-and-mouse in pick-and-roll. He was great staying in between the guard and the basket and not letting the big guy get low enough for the lob. That’s Draymond’s bread and butter. He was really good. That’s a great sign.”
This isn’t anything spectacular. But Wiseman does guard this James Harden and Montrezl Harrell pick-and-roll with a bit more zest and recognition than he had earlier in the season, helping lead to some Harden indecision and a carry turnover.
Moses Moody is the third recent lottery pick. In the conference finals a season ago, with Gary Payton II injured, Moody replaced Damion Lee in the rotation and came through. That generated the expectation that he was more than ready for a promotion this season.
But Moody’s opportunity has been sparse. Even with Thompson and Wiggins out against the Pacers, Kerr had Jerome ahead of him in the rotation. He then went to Moody, who had a strong stint that seemed to hint toward a more extended chance, especially since Curry was injured that game.
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But Jerome has remained a tick above him on the recent pecking order. Kerr said it’s positionally related.
“He has been the odd man out at times behind Lamb and Jerome,” Kerr said. “With Steph out, Ty Jerome has to play because we need a point guard. We’ve got to get organized. If we can’t get organized, we’re in trouble. Ty comes in and settles the game down. On the surface, you say, ‘Why would you play a two-way guy ahead of a lottery pick?’ It’s not that simple. What’s going to help the team win? Well, we need a backup point guard with Steph out. We need an organizer. Ty never turns it over and gets us into our offense. That’s what we need to help us win a game. But when you combine that with JK now being in the rotation, Donte playing well, Lamb being more of a three/four combo with his strength and size, it pushes Moses down in the rotation. It’s been frustrating for Moses. I’ve talked to him about it. But he’s such a pro, such a great young guy with a great attitude that he’s stayed ready, and I think he’s played well when we’ve given him a chance the last few weeks.”
As the Warriors search for reasons for long-term optimism, it’s their starting lineup. Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green and Kevon Looney have played 278 minutes together this season. Among commonly used five-man lineups in the NBA, it’s easily the best. They’ve outscored teams by 132 points. No other five-man combination in the league is better than plus-80.
“And what I like is Donte’s gotten a lot better, JaMychal’s gotten a lot better,” Kerr said. “The new guys are rounding into form. So, if — and it’s a big if — if we are healthy, then you can really see a playoff rotation forming with options within that rotation. You have your full starting lineup. You’re coming off the bench with JP creating shots, Donte defending his ass off, playing with great energy, J-Myke starting to get more comfortable making some shots. JK and Lamb have given us good minutes. Then as we go, you got James and you got Moses. You keep giving them experience, and you hope by the end of the season, you have more options.”
That’s the long-term. In the short term, they must tread water during this pivotal eight-game homestand without Curry.
(Top photo of Draymond Green: Cole Burston / Getty Images)
