Bills edge Dolphins in chaotic AFC wild-card matchup: Can Buffalo’s shaky play keep working?

Jan 15, 2023; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Miami Dolphins during the first half in a NFL wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports
By The Athletic Staff
Jan 15, 2023

The Athletic has live coverage of the NFL wild-card weekend.

By Joe Buscaglia, Tim Graham and Kalyn Kahler

The Buffalo Bills survived Sunday in the AFC wild-card round, knocking off the Miami Dolphins 34-31 to advance to the AFC divisional round. Here’s what you need to know:

  • The Bills will face the Bengals at 3 p.m. ET on Sunday after Cincinnati defeated the Baltimore Ravens.
  • Bills quarterback Josh Allen made it interesting with his share of “wows” and “whoas.” He went 23-of-39 passing for 352 yards with three touchdown passes and two interceptions. Allen ultimately stayed strong with TD passes to Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis in the third quarter to seal the win.
  • Numbers for Dolphins rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson looked rough: 18-of-45 passing for 220 yards with one touchdown pass and two interceptions. But Miami’s pass catchers dropped numerous Thompson throws and couldn’t come down with some contested catches.
  • The Dolphins clawed back after being down 17-0 to take a 24-20 lead early in the third quarter. Eric Rowe forced a sack-fumble on Allen, allowing Zach Sieler a 5-yard fumble return for a touchdown to jump ahead.
  • Two Bills receivers eclipsed the 100-yard receiving mark: Stefon Diggs hauled in seven receptions for 114 yards, while Davis snagged six receptions for 113 yards and one TD.

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

Backstory

The Bills entered the playoffs riding a seven-game winning streak. Their Week 17 matchup with the Bengals was stopped and then canceled after Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field during the first quarter. Hamlin is recovering after going into cardiac arrest. He reportedly visited the team Saturday, but watched the wild-card matchup from home Sunday.

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Miami backed into the playoffs with a Week 18 overtime win against the Jets. The Patriots’ Week 18 loss to the Bills combined with the Dolphins’ win propelled Miami into the postseason. It’s the first postseason appearance for the Dolphins since 2016.

The Bills and the Dolphins each won one of their two 2022 regular-season meetings.

Too close for Bills’ comfort

The Bills made Sunday waaaaaaaay closer than it ever ought to have been. They clearly had the better collection of players, yet the Dolphins led midway through the third quarter despite gaining only 107 yards. The 13.5-point underdogs — with their third-string, seventh-round, rookie quarterback — could thank a series of Bills bobbles and gaffes.

Allen threw two interceptions and fumbled for a Dolphins defensive touchdown. His second interception bounced off slot receiver Beasley’s chest. Tight end Dawson Knox had a touchdown taken off the scoreboard when a review showed he didn’t keep the ball off the turf (kicked a field goal instead), and rookie wideout Khalil Shakir failed to control what would have been a 54-yard chunk to Miami’s 16-yard line (punted instead). Allen was sacked seven times and fumbled thrice, the Bills recovering two.

Buffalo’s defense, meanwhile, was bailed out too many times on open deep balls because Skylar Freaking Thompson was inaccurate, and Miami’s star receivers didn’t compensate with big-time catches on those chances. Bills Mafia can exhale for now, but their nervousness will resurface soon enough. Sunday’s sloppy performance wouldn’t be good enough to beat the Bengals. — Graham

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Buffalo fortunate to win

The Bills did everything they could to try and give away the game against the depleted Dolphins. They raced out to an early lead and proceeded to gift great field possession several times in a row leading up to halftime, and the Dolphins stunned them when they tied the game at 17 and took the lead on a defensive touchdown. The Bills eventually responded on defense and offense, but still let the Dolphins hang around for far too long — including a chance to win it.

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The Bills survived, but barely. If they were up against any other team, the Bills likely would have lost.

The Bills got a humongous effort from rookie cornerback Kaiir Elam. He entered the game after starter Dane Jackson left with a second-quarter knee injury, and made a tide-turning third-quarter play to intercept a pass in Dolphins territory. Then with the game on the line, Elam broke up the fourth-down pass to Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki to help secure the victory. The Bills likely wouldn’t have won without Elam’s contributions. — Buscaglia

Three big defensive plays saved Miami’s dignity

Just when it felt like the game was getting out of hand, Xavien Howard picked off Allen on a pass intended for receiver John Brown, who stopped short on the route. Howard not only prevented what might have been a Bills touchdown with the pick, but he also returned the interception from Miami’s 3-yard line to Buffalo’s 48-yard-line, a 49-yard return, which set up Miami’s struggling offense for a field goal to pull to 17-6.

Five minutes later, Miami got another short field on offense, when Kader Kohou got a hand on Allen’s pass to Beasley, and the ball bounced off Beasley and into the arms of Jevon Holland. Holland returned the pick for 29 yards, and the Dolphins got the ball at Buffalo’s 18-yard-line. They scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion, and miraculously tied the game, off the very short field. Then, on the Bills’ first snap of the second half, safety Rowe sacked Allen and defensive end Sieler picked up the ball and took it home into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown. — Kahler

Get some kind of play off, please

Mike McDaniel has done some great work this season, including in this very game by staying so close while being huge underdogs. But there’s no excuse for being unable to get a play off on fourth-and-a-foot at Miami’s 48-yard line. There was mass confusion at the line of scrimmage and the Dolphins took a delay of game at a down and distance that has an incredibly high percentage of converting if you just do something simple, like a quarterback sneak! At the most crucial moment in the game, Miami’s offense moved back 5 yards and failed and turned it over on downs, handing the Bills the win. That indecision was almost as infuriating as the incredibly inefficient game administration by Brad Allen’s officiating crew. — Kahler

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Bills’ odds for rest of playoffs

The victory leaves the Bills with the second-best chance to win the AFC and tied for the third-best chance to win the Super Bowl among the remaining playoff teams, according to the model run by The Athletic’s Austin Mock. The model projects the Bills to have a 29.7 percent chance to win the AFC Championship Game and a 15.1 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. That 15.1 figure ties them with the Eagles and trails the Chiefs (16.7 percent) and 49ers (15.8 percent).

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Highlights of the game

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Stats of the game

Diggs’ 52-yard reception in the first quarter was the most improbable completion of Allen’s career (15.6 percent probability) and the longest completion against an eight-man blitz since 2016, per Next Gen Stats.

Knox has caught a touchdown in each of his last five games. The only tight ends since 1970 with a longer streak of games with one or more receiving touchdown within a single season (including playoffs) are Travis Kelce and Rob Gronkowski, per NFL Research.

Required reading

(Photo: Mark Konezny / USA Today)

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