7 observations from Bills-Dolphins: The Josh Allen roller coaster and second-half Ken Dorsey

7 observations from Bills-Dolphins: The Josh Allen roller coaster and second-half Ken Dorsey
By Joe Buscaglia
Jan 16, 2023

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — It shouldn’t matter how a team advances in the postseason, as long as it does. The Bills tested that theory against an injured Dolphins team on Sunday.

After racing out to an early 17-0 lead, the Bills watched as the 13.5-point underdog Dolphins nearly pulled off the shock of the weekend. Despite surrendering the lead in the third quarter, the Bills eventually made enough plays the rest of the way to claim a 34-31 win.

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It was survive-and-advance at its finest, and now the Bills make their third straight appearance in the AFC divisional round. What led to some of their struggles, and how did the Bills get through with a win?

Here are seven observations from the Bills’ first playoff victory of the year:

1. The Josh Allen roller coaster

Through the Bills’ first four offensive drives of the game, quarterback Josh Allen appeared to pick up where he left off in last year’s postseason as the electric, unstoppable dynamo the Chiefs barely pushed out of the playoffs. Even on the Bills’ first series, which went for no points and was a turnover on downs in Dolphins’ territory, Allen showed an immediate hold on the Dolphins’ blitz-heavy approach. The Bills were a Dawson Knox dropped pass in the end zone away from a 21-0 lead with Allen looking like he was going to challenge his wild-card performance from last season against the Patriots. He was hitting his receivers with unbelievable throws and in stride to maximize some yards after the catch. And at least in the first quarter, Allen upended how he played against the blitz since the Bills’ bye in Week 7.

Coming into the game, out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks since Week 8, Allen ranked dead last in both completion percentage (50 percent) and yards per attempt (4.61) against the blitz, according to TruMedia. The Dolphins knew they were the heavy underdog, they were understaffed, and they entered the game ready to make Allen prove he could defy those stats against the blitz this season. And early on, Allen did. Through those first four series, Allen completed 66.7 percent of his passes against the blitz for 108 yards at an average of 12 yards per attempt, and his receivers were guilty of two drops that would have raised all of those statistics. After that, the Dolphins adjusted, and that’s where things began to unravel.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Bills edge Dolphins in chaotic AFC wild-card matchup

According to TruMedia, the Dolphins went coverage-heavy for almost the rest of the game and picked their spots of when to blitz, which worked. Allen completed only 40 percent of his passes and averaged only three yards per attempt against the blitz over the second and third quarters. And in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins only ran a blitz once, and that resulted in the pivotal Khalil Shakir reception for 31 yards. The Dolphins relied on pure coverage every other passing play, and it gave the Bills problems, perhaps because it wasn’t what they were expecting.

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Allen completed only 50 percent of his passes against a rush of four or fewer players from the second quarter through the end of the game. And on a lot of those plays, Allen was going for a lot of yards. On 20 throws against a non-blitz, Allen averaged 17.85 air yards per attempt — a total of 357 yards. On his ten completions, his air yards were only 101 total and an average of 10.1 per attempt. That means Allen averaged 25.6 air yards per attempt on his 10 incompletions. Allen kept trying to go for the hero move, and the Bills stalled repeatedly. Some of it comes down to Allen making better decisions with the ball, but the Bills certainly needed more from their offensive coordinator once they began to struggle.

2. Ken Dorsey went hero to villain in a hurry

Through those first four offensive series, Allen and Ken Dorsey were in sync. The offensive coordinator was creative and pushed the Dolphins’ defense to its limit on every drive. Dorsey’s early performance, especially with mixing and matching his personnel, was reminiscent of now-Giants head coach Brian Daboll. It was one of Dorsey’s finest games, and it came in a massive spot during his first playoff game. But once the Dolphins pivoted from their initial blitz-heavy strategy, the Bills were flummoxed.

Dorsey couldn’t find a rhythm but kept going for the big play. The Dolphins made it a point to take Stefon Diggs out of the game after some early-afternoon dominance, leaving the Bills disjointed on offense. Diggs was targeted only once in the second half by Miami’s design, and the Bills had to depend on the rest of their receivers and the running game. But they had to deal with drops, some bad throws and an excellent Dolphins run defense that left the Bills a bit more one-dimensional than they had hoped. The yards per play average dropped considerably after the Bills went up 17-0, and despite not being able to connect deep down the field, the Bills kept on trying it. The worst was when the Bills called one go ball on a first-down play to Gabe Davis, didn’t sub him out for the next play, and dialed it up again on the next play where Davis looked out of gas. It is a sequence coach Sean McDermott admitted Dorsey would want back.

It boils down to in-game adjustment and making sure they are in constant communication with Allen to take what the defense gives them when the opponent shifts their defensive principles. The Bills eventually rectified it and started moving the ball a bit more to help seal the game, but they didn’t do themselves many favors. The Bills’ next opponents surely will vary up coverages and force Dorsey to prove the Bills can consistently overcome a varied approach.

3. Bills unveil unique WR usage

Despite some of Dorsey’s struggles in the second half, he kept the Dolphins guessing for a lot of the first half based on his personnel usage. It hit a high point with the play-to-play wide receiver groupings. Throughout the regular season, the Bills were fairly predictable, with Davis getting close to all the snaps, Diggs getting most of the snaps with the occasional breather, and then some mix of Isaiah McKenzie, Shakir and the fifth receiver splitting snaps. But against the Dolphins in the first half, the down-to-down substitution patterns looked more like a hockey game, with the forwards jumping on the ice to replace the previous group as the Bills were going fast. The helter-skelter substitutions had to be quite difficult to keep track of for a man-to-man-based defense like the Dolphins early on. Through the first half, the Bills utilized 15 different wide receiver combinations, ranging from 12 personnel to 10 personnel and kept Miami guessing. The snap share for the game was far more evenly spread throughout the five players than it had been in previous weeks.

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That was a staple of how Daboll used to call his games when he was feeling it, and it was clear that Dorsey was doing a great job with it early in the game. But when the Dolphins crawled back into the game, the creativity in usage went away. In the second half, that number was more than cut in half. Diggs went from playing 76.2 percent of the first-half snaps to nearly 94 percent of the second-half snaps. Davis barely left the field, either. If the Bills can keep that creativity from the early game when things become a bit direr down the stretch, it would be an ideal outcome through the rest of their postseason journey.

Kaiir Elam (24) made the case to be the Bills’ CB2 moving forward. (Gregory Fisher / USA Today)

4. Kaiir Elam should start from here on out

As the Bills watched the Dolphins take the lead and their own offense simultaneously sputter in the third quarter, there was an overwhelming hum around the stadium crowd, wondering if Miami would do the unthinkable. Since 2000, every wild-card team favored by at least 10 points went on to win their game outright — and the Bills were in dangerous territory of snapping that streak. And that’s when rookie cornerback Kaiir Elam changed the entire complexion of the game.

Elam had spent most of the first half on the bench as the Bills had decided to start Dane Jackson and use him on 100 percent of the snaps. It bucked their timeshare philosophy of the regular season with the second cornerback spot, but the Bills quickly needed Elam once Jackson suffered a knee injury. Elam proceeded to take over the role as the game wore on and capitalized it with his third-quarter interception as the Bills were losing 24-20. He jumped the route, high-pointed the ball and made the huge play the Bills had been starving for since they led 17-0. Elam followed that up with excellent coverage, run defending and pass breakups through the rest of the game. McDermott was quick to praise Elam’s effort, and then revealed that Jackson was cleared to go back into the game.

Despite Jackson’s clearance, Elam played every snap, which might signal a shift on the depth chart. Elam deserved to remain on the field, and with the potential to make a game-changing play in his toolbox, there really isn’t a justification for keeping him off the field. There will certainly be a regrettable rep or two because he’s a young player still trying to figure it out, but the talent is clear. Elam should be in the lineup down in, down out. His play in previous regular season games likely should have brought on this revelation, though. Even in letting up a touchdown last week, Elam made several solid plays and looked good in coverage against the Patriots. But now with the Bills moving in Elam’s direction with their actions, if he continues this strong play, the Bills may have finally found their answer at second cornerback.

5. Tremaine Edmunds serves up another statement game

The Bills had to rely on their defense to bail them out repeatedly and the unit held up its end of the bargain a lot of the time. Outside of one long drive in the second half, the Dolphins could not sustain a drive down the entire field that resulted in a touchdown. Instead, they relied on turnovers and special teams to give them excellent field positions to help even the scoreboard. All throughout the Bills had several standout defensive performances, but middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds was flying all over the field to make several critical stops for the defense. He showed everything a team would want in an all-around linebacker, as his run coverage, pass defending, length in zone defending and blitzing all made an impact throughout the game. It’s another reminder of Edmunds’ importance to a defense that ranks near the top of many metrics, and a compelling reason for the Bills to want to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Whether or not they can make the cap work to keep Edmunds with the team remains an issue, but the player has turned into a star in their defense, and the Bills don’t often like to let stars leave if they can help it.

6. Spectacular run defending was a critical piece

As the Dolphins entered the game with a third-string rookie quarterback and an injury-ravaged offensive line, stopping Miami’s rushing attack was the top priority for the Bills. The quicker they could make it into a Skylar Thompson throwing game, the better off they’d be — and it played out quite well for the Bills. The run defense was dominant, allowing only 26 yards on 15 running back carries all game. Even without Jordan Phillips, the defensive tackle quartet of Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Tim Settle and Eli Ankou dominated at the point of attack. On those 15 running back attempts, the Oliver-Jones combination allowed only 1.4 yards per carry, while the Settle-Ankou rotational pair allowed only 2.1. It forced the Dolphins to get creative with their ground game, and Thompson had to throw the ball 45 times. On the five offensive Dolphins scoring drives, their average drive start was at the Bills’ 45-yard line. Despite allowing 24 points, with the context of all the shortened fields, the defense stepped up when the offense needed it most.

7. Basham flashes for some big plays

For much of the season, 2021 second-round pick Boogie Basham has mostly been a background player and a slight disappointment, given his draft status. He’s had a flashy moment every once and again, but he never forced his way into a more prominent role. But in a plus matchup against a guard forced to play right tackle, Basham was making his presence felt throughout the game. He collected a sack, and his film study even showed off in recognition of one play that helped the defense get off the field. Basham saw the pre-snap movement of running back Salvon Ahmed and vigorously pointed toward the flat area on his side to help his second-level teammates. It was the play that Edmunds put a huge hit on Ahmed to force the ball loose and made the Dolphins settle for a field goal.

Bills MVP: WR Stefon Diggs – When Diggs was a big part of the offense, the Bills couldn’t be stopped. When the Dolphins sold out to take him out of the game, the Bills couldn’t get much going. That’s worthy of MVP.

Bills LVP: Second-half Ken Dorsey – The Bills needed more from their offensive coordinator to help close out the game, and several sequences didn’t match the current game environment.

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Up Next: The Bills move on to the AFC Divisional round and will get another home game in Orchard Park. They take on the Bengals at 3 p.m. ET Sunday.

Final Thoughts

Well, take a deep breath. The Bills survived, albeit barely. Despite several attempts to allow the Dolphins back into the game, the Bills finally put the game away with two clutch touchdowns, several defensive stops and Devin Singletary getting just enough yardage on third down to help run out the clock. It wasn’t anywhere close to the playing level they’ll need to win it all this year, but that’s the beautiful thing about the playoffs. Once the Bills enter their next matchup, anything they did against the Dolphins doesn’t matter as long as they don’t let it linger. They have plenty to correct, which is sure to make for a busy week of self-reflection and evaluation, but the Bills did just enough to keep themselves alive.

This result could go one of two ways for the Bills. It could be a bad sign of things to come, with future opponents seeing some flaws on film they can expose with a better supporting cast. Or, if you’re an optimist, it could be the best thing to happen to the Bills. It could be a wake-up call amidst an eight-game win streak that doesn’t cost them their season but forces them to hone in and get sharper the rest of the way. They showed flashes of their ceiling early but failed to put a complete game together. But with the competition only getting more difficult over the next three rounds, this Dolphins game is their mulligan. From here on out, they need far more than what they gave on Sunday to become Super Bowl champions. However, they are still alive, and that’s all that matters. The Bills are still every bit the Super Bowl contenders they were entering the postseason.

(Top photo of Josh Allen: Gregory Fisher / USA Today)

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Joe Buscaglia

Joe Buscaglia is a staff writer for The Athletic, covering the Buffalo Bills. Joe has covered the team since 2010. He spent his first five years on the beat at WGR Sports Radio 550 and the next four years at WKBW-TV in Buffalo. A native of Hamburg, N.Y., Buscaglia is a graduate of Buffalo State College. Follow Joe on Twitter @JoeBuscaglia