NBA’s top free-agent small forwards in 2023: Khris Middleton, Bruce Brown, Dillon Brooks and more

The Athletic has around-the-clock coverage of 2023 NBA Free Agency.

Hollinger’s free-agent rankings and projections:

If you’re looking for talent in the small forward market, you’re going to have to dig deep. A thin class is headed by one former NBA All-Star (Khris Middleton), one recently crowned champion (Bruce Brown) and one exiled defensive stopper (Dillon Brooks).

The depth of this group is also nothing to write home about; teams will have to work harder to find under-the-radar talent. This class does offer a few sleepers, however, for those who are willing to dig.

For those who missed it last year, here’s what we’re doing: We’ve already broken down the top 25 overall free agents in this summer’s market. Now we’re drilling down into the depths of the market, listing every relevant player at each position.

Again, we’ll be doing what I’ve done the past two offseasons: Using my BORD$ valuations to help develop an idea of what these players are worth.

While this method has some limitations — it’s a value for the coming season only, for instance, and obviously, factors like health, attitude and fit are difficult to account for — it provides a common-sense check on player contracts for the coming season.

Keep in mind I’ve only listed likely free agents here; Danuel House Jr., for instance, has already opted into his player option with the Philadelphia 76ers for the year and thus was omitted. Similarly, team options on Herb Jones, Kessler Edwards and Naji Marshall also seem likely to be picked up.

Other partially guaranteed or non-guaranteed players who seem unlikely to be waived and aren’t listed below include Brandon Boston Jr., Reggie Bullock, Eugene Omoruyi and Cedi Osman.

Also, keep in mind we’ll be updating this list as players and teams decline or fulfill option years, go though waivers and otherwise enter and leave the market.

Here’s how BORD$ sees the market:

Tier I: The max or near-max guys

No one.

Tier II: More than midlevel, less than max

1. Khris Middleton, 31, Milwaukee (player option): $26,822,042

Middleton has a player option for $40.4 million, and there is no way he’s getting a salary like that on the open market. But this may be a situation where he and the Bucks can work out an arrangement that sees him opt out and re-sign a longer-term deal for lower dollars. First, that’s more in line with what Middleton’s value is these days after a couple of injury-wrecked seasons, but second, the Bucks’ tax situation almost demands it.

Getting Middleton’s salary down into the mid-$20-million range annually is what can allow Milwaukee to re-sign Brook Lopez and still remain below the first tax apron. A four-year deal in the $100 million range would be the equivalent of a three-year, $60 million extension but would potentially save the Bucks tens of millions in luxury tax in 2023-24.

2. Bruce Brown, 26, Denver (player option): $17,764,642

Brown was one of the best 2022 free-agent signings in the league, if not the best, helping the Nuggets to the NBA Finals on a bargain $6.5 million contract. (Although some people had him rated as the top free-agent small forward last summer.)

He’ll likely opt out of the second year of that deal and get paid this summer, with virtually every team with midlevel exception money or more circling him as a possibility. The Nuggets will have no Bird rights on Brown, so the only possibility of his staying is to sign a one-year deal for $7.7 million and then re-sign in Denver as an early Bird rights free agent a year from now for a likely $13.6 million. Even those numbers, however, seem to badly undervalue Brown, so it’s more likely he flies the coop.

3. Dillon Brooks, 27, Memphis: $17,746,207

Under any circumstances? Really? What about the circumstance where you can’t find a starting-caliber small forward with your non-taxpayer midlevel exception?

The minute Memphis said it wasn’t bringing back Brooks, however, he immediately became a hugely interesting free agent for any team with cap space and defensive issues. Coming off a second-team All-Defense selection and in the prime of his career at 27, Brooks should be an attractive target for cap room teams such as Houston, Detroit and Utah who need a defensive stopper and have the ability to go above the midlevel exception on a multi-year deal.

Tier III: Midlevel exception guys

4. Talen Horton-Tucker, 22, Utah (player option): $14,285,177

The question of Horton-Tucker’s value is still as open-ended as it was when he was a free agent with the the Los Angeles Lakers two years ago. On the one hand, he’s the youngest unrestricted free agent on the market if he opts out of his deal, he has a 7-foot wingspan and a point guard’s handle, and there’s obvious potential for him to become a high-volume shot creator.

On the other hand, “shot creator” only helps if some of the shots go in, and that’s a lingering problem. Horton-Tucker still can’t shoot (28.6 percent from 3 last year, 28.0 percent career), which undermines the rest of his package off the dribble since defenders can go under every screen against him. While he has a decent touch on runners and floaters, he also doesn’t have the blast-off first step that can get him to the rim easily, and as a result, he doesn’t generate a ton of chances at the rim. The net result was a 50.8 percent true shooting mark, on the heels of 50.3 percent in 2021-22; a high-usage option can’t be this inefficient.

So what’s the market for a player like that? BORD$ is optimistic there’s enough upside here to make him worth midlevel money or more, but I might hedge my bets a bit more strongly. The Jazz have a clean cap and might be tempted by the idea of locking him up to a long deal, especially if they can front-load the money. But it might not be the worst thing if Horton-Tucker opts in and they get another year or information.

5. Matisse Thybulle, 26, (restricted) Portland: $13,639,190

The master of the “stock” stat, Thybulle once again led all non-centers in combined blocks and steals per 100 possessions. While he sometimes isn’t as fundamentally solid as you’d prefer from a defensive stopper, there is no question he’s a high-impact defender, especially in zones.

The question is whether his offense can keep him on the floor long enough for teams to benefit from his defense. Thybulle made some strides in that department last season, improving to 36.5 percent from 3 and cutting down on the tragic turnovers. Nevertheless, opponents will still dare him to fire away and count on him to make poor decisions if he puts it on the floor.

He’s in a good spot, because Portland needs his defense and can survive his offense. The Blazers will retain matching rights on Thybulle by making a $6.3 million qualifying offer, which should be an easy decision. Thybulle’s offense may get exposed in late playoff rounds, but for the Blazers, getting there is 98 percent of the problem, and his defense should be a big help on this roster.

6. Kelly Oubre, 27, Charlotte: $11,963,850

Oubre may be flying under the radar after missing the first half of last season and then coming back after Charlotte’s season was already off the rails. Continuing the trend line in this section, Oubre is another player whose shooting can be, um … streaky. He made 31.9 percent from 3 last season and is at 33.0 percent for his career.

Oubre can fill it up when he’s cooking, averaging a career-high 29.9 points per 100 possessions last year, and is an excellent finisher in transition. He’s also prone to dribble blindness and can lose attention at the defensive end; on the ball, however, he holds up well. Overall, you’d like a bench scorer to be a bit more efficient than this (53.4 percent true shooting last year, 54.2 career), but Oubre should be entering the prime years of his career and should be able to deliver on a full non-taxpayer midlevel exception contract.

7. Jalen McDaniels, 25, Philadelphia: $11,357,615

A category-filler who doesn’t excel in any one particular area, McDaniels never quite got into the playoff mix for Philadelphia after a deadline trade from Charlotte despite offering multi-position defense, plus athleticism in transition and as a finisher and a halfway decent 3-point shot (34.5 percent career). At his age and with his résumé, McDaniels is likely to have a lot of other interested suitors at or near the non-taxpayer midlevel exception if the Sixers don’t want him back.

The Sixers’ tax situation could work against McDaniels returning, as re-signing James Harden to anything near his max would put them near the second apron. However, there’s an alternate scenario where keeping McDaniels becomes almost a must. McDaniels has a very low cap hold ($1.8 million), and if Harden departs and the Sixers decide to operate as a cap room team, they could sign other players with space and then ink McDaniels using his Bird rights. It’s an unlikely but not impossible dance that would require shedding a couple of other small contracts and, of course, finding somebody worth signing with the cap space.

8. Max Strus, 27, Miami: $11,226,772

Strus showed his case for getting a bag during Miami’s playoff run: Though a bit streaky, he’s an extreme high-volume 3-point shooter (13.2 attempts per 100 possessions career) with solid accuracy (37.1 percent), and he contributes enough in other areas to stay on the court. That allows him to fit with a variety of lineup combinations, even if his bottom-line stats (10.8 PER, 55.7 percent true shooting) don’t set the heart racing.

Miami has full Bird rights on Strus but is in a tough position because of the impending second apron and the fact that the Heat are $11 million over the tax line before they pay him a cent. That could inspire other teams to pounce with strong offers, knowing Miami might be reluctant to keep up. As with Oubre above, a multi-year deal for the non-taxpayer MLE seems like a strong possibility.

Max Strus (Kyle Terada / USA TODAY)

Tier IV: More than minimum, less than midlevel

9. Hamidou Diallo, 24, Detroit: $9,861,495

Dialllo played only 17 minutes a game for the league’s worst team and doesn’t seem to be in their plans going forward. He also can’t shoot at all, making five 3s in the entirety of 2022-23 and hitting 58.8 percent from the line.

Yet the 24-year-old might appeal as a bench scorer in the right situation. Despite his limited playing time, Diallo was very productive, scoring and rebounding at a high rate (25.4 points and 9.4 boards per 100), shooting 59.3 percent inside the arc and not bothering with the 3s that he can’t make anyway. It was a wild ride at times, with a high turnover rate and gambling defense that produced a lot of deflections and a lot of fouls, but it netted out to an effective player.

Diallo is best on an up-tempo team that has plenty of surrounding shooting, where his weaknesses as a half-court floor-spacer will be minimized. In the right role, however, he could thrive.

10. Troy Brown Jr., 23, L.A. Lakers: $9,580,364

A good sleeper candidate for teams in need of a 3-and-D wing, Brown fared better on the “3” part than in past stops by knocking down a career-best 38.1 percent from distance. That was the biggest weakness keeping Brown from emerging in Washington and Chicago, and as a result he was a rotation regular for the Lakers who started 45 games. Brown isn’t a high-wire athlete and that limits his shot creation ability, but he can handle the ball and make the right play, and defensively he uses quick hands to make up for average feet.

Coming off a minimum deal, Brown will be an unrestricted free agent with no Bird rights, and the Lakers will be in a difficult position to re-sign him given their other priorities and tax situation. Still just 23 years old, he could be a value addition for teams in need of wing help, especially on a multiyear deal for less than the MLE.

11. Keita Bates-Diop, 27, San Antonio: $9,017,363

Meet the most deeply under-the-radar free agent of the summer. Bates-Diop signed a two-way in San Antonio three years ago after washing out in Minnesota, hardly played his first year, and snuck up on us from there.

Last year, for a miserable Spurs team, Bates-Diop was … kinda good? He shot 39.4 percent from 3, albeit on limited volume, and 55.7 percent inside the arc. He’s a solid rebounder, held up fine defensively (to the extent anyone on the Spurs did, anyway), and has become a very crafty operator around the basket despite meh athleticism. Realistically the 3-point shooting is likely to regress, but Bates-Diop could flourish on a better team as a jack-of-all-trades type backup at either forward spot.

Entering his prime seasons, Bates-Diop would be a strong value pickup for teams offering the taxpayer or room exception. The Spurs also have full Bird Rights on him and ample cap room, so they could bring him back, but they also have other priorities at the forward spot with Jeremy Sochan and Keldon Johnson.

12. Javonte Green, 29, Chicago: $7,769,145

This number is consistent with BORD$’ historical preference, relative to the market, for lightly threatening shooters who do other stuff well than the general market. Between a knee injury and a crowded rotation upon his return, Green only played 31 minutes after New Year’s Day last season, and it’s not clear if he’ll be in Chicago’s plans going forward.

However, he’s a useful player despite his lack of size (6-foot-4), limited shot creation and iffy shooting (34.2 percent career from 3 on low volume). Green is a high-energy, disruptive defender who racks up steals and blocks and has a strong frame that lets him guard bigger players. He also punches above his weight as a rebounder, with a double-figure rebound rate for a second straight season. You’d like the offensive package to be more diverse, but Green flies up and down the floor in transition, cuts hard and won’t take a bad shot; as a result, he shoots 61.7 percent over his career inside the arc.

Green may be off the radar a bit after hardly playing the second half of last season, and players of this ilk always seem to get a bit of short shrift in the market. (Look at Bruce Brown, for crying out loud). He could be a good value for the biannual exception or taxpayer midlevel exception.

13. Joe Ingles, 35, Milwaukee, $3,752,464

Ingles returned from a torn ACL at age 35 and put together a respectable season, hitting 40.9 percent from 3 in a bench role for the league’s best regular-season team. While his turnover rate crept higher and his defensive shortcomings have become more pronounced, he still has enough craft in his slow motion off-the-dribble game to be a weapon on the back side.

Milwaukee’s cap situation could limit what it can offer Ingles, but at his age he’s unlikely to be flooded with rich offers. It’s possible he gets offers for more than this BORD$ value, given the utility of his shooting and the fact that he may recover some juice as his ACL injury gets further in the rearview, but Milwaukee can offer him up to $7.7 million as a non-Bird free agent.

Tier V: Guaranteed Minimums

14. Dalano Banton, 23, (restricted) Toronto

Like every other bench player in Toronto, Banton fell out off favor with Nick Nurse as the year went on. However, his limited minutes went fairly well all things considered, especially at the defensive end. Had he played enough minutes, Banton’s 4.6 “stocks” per 100 possessions would have ranked second only to Matisse Thybulle among non-centers.

Banton tried to be a 3-point shooter last year but still can’t make them (29.4 percent), a big limitation on his potential offensive role. (He also shot 25.8 percent from 3 in 15 G League appearances). He’s big and can handle the ball, but doesn’t quite have the first-step juice to be a volume on-ball creator either.

With the Raptors facing a complicated summer, it’s not clear where Banton’s future is headed. Toronto can keep his restricted rights with a $2.19 million qualifying offer, and would have Early Bird rights on him in any case.

Dalano Banton (Scott Wachter / USA TODAY)

15. Danny Green, 36, Cleveland

Coming off a torn ACL, Green struggled to regain his former pedestal as an elite 3-and-D role player in stops in Cleveland and Memphis. That said, he was so valuable in that role before the injury that, even at 36, there’s a decent chance he can contribute after another offseason rehabbing. Ideally, he’d sign up to help a contender as a fifth wing on a minimum deal.

16. Romeo Langford, 23, (restricted) San Antonio

Langford’s year in San Antonio went better than his time in Boston in some respects, as he showed more capability as a finisher and showed some promise at the defensive end despite being an undersized wing. Unfortunately, his 3-point shot evaded him (26.2 percent), dropping him to 28.8 percent career. If he can’t shoot from distance at 6-4, there probably isn’t enough else there to build on. That said, he’s young enough to still turn the corner as a shooter.

The Spurs can make Langford a restricted free agent by submitting a $7.7 million qualifying offer, but that would seem excessive for a guy who is probably looking at a minimum deal. (He is no longer two-way-eligible). The Spurs also have a crowded roster, so his next chance may come someplace else.

17. Cam Reddish, 23, (restricted) Portland

The good news is that Reddish finally mastered scoring inside the arc last season, making a career-high 56.0 percent of his 2s after never clearing 46.0 percent in his first three seasons. The bad news is that he still can’t shoot (32.2 percent career from 3) and he still turns it over way too much with his loose handle. At the other end, Reddish is big (6-8) and has fast hands, which theoretically could make him a lockdown wing, but he’s yet to translate that into plus defensive performance over a longer stretch.

He’s in an interesting spot with Portland. As with Langford above, the Blazers can make Reddish a restricted free agent with a $7.7 million qualifying offer, but one hardly sees the need for doing so given that his likely market is less. Given Portland’s need to manage its tax situation, one wonders if a one year-minimum with a second-year player option is the best outcome; that would allow the Blazers to maintain Bird Rights and pay him a year from now if he breaks out.

18. Svi Mykhailiuk, 26, Charlotte

After languishing at the end of New York’s bench most of the year, Mykhailiuk gave Charlotte some unexpected quality minutes during the Hornets’ surprisingly competent stretch run, re-establishing his career in the process. Notably, Mykhailiuk averaged double-figures while shooting 40.4 percent from 3 in 19 games as a Hornet. He had struggled with his stroke in previous stops in Toronto and Oklahoma City, but if he can maintain production anywhere near his 2022-23 level, he’ll be a screaming bargain this summer.

Whether Mykhailiuk returns to Charlotte likely depends on other, bigger decisions — whether the Hornets draft Brandon Miller, and what they do with free agents Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre and P.J. Washington — but he’s earned at least a minimum deal someplace.

19. Ish Wainright, 28 (team option) (restricted), Phoenix

One interesting dilemma in Phoenix is whether the Suns should pick up Wainright’s team option for the minimum. He’s an undersized four who is more of a defense-and-energy guy with the rare combo of steal and block rates both above 2.0 percent. Last season, he also shot a quasi-respectable 32.9 percent from 3 on decent volume; if he can get that to the mid-30s he could have some real staying power as a rotation player. The rest of his offensive game is very limited, however, so the Suns might want to turn elsewhere for more punch.

In theory, Phoenix could also decline the option and make Wainright a restricted free agent, but there is no advantage to doing so versus just picking up the option.

20. Yuta Watanabe, 28, Brooklyn

Watanabe had a breakout year in Brooklyn, shooting 44.4 percent from 3, but the Nets’ crowd at the forward position makes it seem unlikely he’s back. A solid defender with a limited offensive repertoire beyond the catch-and-shoot game, Watanabe would be a good pickup as a fourth forward who can fill in at either spot, although he’s probably more comfortable at the three.

One obvious place to look for him on a minimum deal would be Phoenix. The Suns will likely need to sign several minimum deals to fill out their roster this summer, and Watanabe could be reunited with Kevin Durant and again play off him for open 3s.

21. Rodney McGruder, 31, Detroit

A “culture guy” junkyard dog who came up through Miami’s G League system and has carved out a seven-year career so far, McGruder showed last spring that he still has some actual game left too. He finally got in the rotation late in the year after languishing on the bench all season, and hit 42.3 percent from 3. While I wouldn’t expect that to hold up, he’s a career 36.0 percent shooter from 3 who plays tough defense and has a well-developed floater game. Detroit’s crowded roster may limit his ability to return there, but he should land a one-year minimum someplace.

Torrey Craig (Gary A. Vasquez / USA TODAY)

22. Torrey Craig, 32, Phoenix

I was surprised to see BORD$ hold Craig in such low esteem; he started for a playoff team last year and shot 39.5 percent from 3. Craig can be a baffling decision-maker at the offensive end, but he’s a plus rebounder at the three and a solid defender at either forward spot.

Craig’s age works against him signing a multi-year deal, but he’s had offers in the $5 million range each of his last two forays into free agency and I’d expect him to land a contract somewhere in that range again. Money will be tight in Phoenix, but the Suns have early Bird rights on Craig so wouldn’t need to use their taxpayer MLE to re-sign him.

23. Jamal Cain 24, (restricted) (two-way), Miami

Does Miami have another two-way success story waiting in the wings? Cain wasn’t signed to a roster contract, but he was one of the best players in the G League in his first season out of Marquette. Cain was also notably effective in his brief time with the varsity, posting a PER of 16.1 and a double-digit rebound rate in 18 appearances. The Heat will have matching rights on Cain and could end up signing him to another two-way, but this is a situation where another team might want to swoop in with a qualifying offer above the minimum and see if Miami’s tax situation prevents it from matching.

Tier VI: The Rest

24. Wesley Matthews, 36, Milwaukee

Matthews is still capable of tough, physical defense, but he’s 36 and has become almost a total zero on offense. He shot only 31.5 percent from 3 last season while averaging a meager 10.4 points per 100 possessions. Matthews probably still has a market as a veteran bench guy who came in and didn’t screw up the game, but that’s about the limit.

25. Terence Ross, 32, Phoenix

Phoenix somewhat surprisingly signed Ross off the buyout market after he struggled mightily in Orlando, but he actually played much better for the Suns. Ross even provided some moments of offensive punch in the Denver series before the wheels came off in Game 6.

The overall body of work suggests limited appeal going forward, however. Ross is a decent shooter (36.2 percent career from 3) with some athletic pop, but he provides very little defensively or off the dribble. At 32, he’ll be looking to latch onto another minimum deal.

26. Justin Holiday, 34, Dallas

The Mavs seemed unusually excited about signing Holiday off the buyout market, even giving him two starts in his first week, but he has declined sharply as an offensive player the past two years and was quickly ushered into a lesser role. Last season was the second consecutive season Holiday shot below 40 percent from the floor and a PER in single digits, landing at a ghastly 6.6 in 2022-23. His selling point is as a low-usage 3-and-D wing who is a plus in the locker room and never gets hurt, but potential buyers would need to believe in his shot coming back.

27. Dylan Windler, 26, Cleveland

The former first-round pick played a grand total of 10 minutes for the Cavs last season in what was the fourth consecutive injury-riddled campaign for Windler. He also played 11 games in the G League and wasn’t half bad, delivering some hope that maybe he can get some career traction if he can stay healthy. There’s an intersection of shooting, rebounding and cutting ability that’s interesting, but I’m not sure anyone is going to guarantee money at this point.

(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; top photos of Bruce Brown and Kris Middleton: Dustin Bradford, Gary Dineen / Getty Images)