Don’t let his rules on jersey numbers, facial hair styles and sideburn length fool you; Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello has a sense of humor.
How else are we supposed to explain, after making it standard procedure to stick contract agreements in a drawer for months, his decision to dump releases for four huge, consequential deals simultaneously on the first day of free agency? It’s funny! Lou Lamoriello loves to laugh!
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Yes, indeed, Ilya Sorokin, Scott Mayfield, Pierre Engvall and Semyon Varlamov will all be Islanders for a very long time. Let’s sift through the specifics.
The contracts
Islanders sign:
• Ilya Sorokin to an eight-year extension with an $8.25 million AAV.
• Pierre Engvall to a seven-year deal with a $3 million AAV.
• Scott Mayfield to a seven-year deal with a $3.5 million AAV.
• Semyon Varlamov to a four-year deal with a $2.75 million AAV.
Ilya Sorokin
Dom Luszczyszyn: It’s not often that I’ll praise a goalie contract that is big money, long term and signed a year early. But there are always exceptions to the rule, and this is absolutely one of them.
Sorokin is one of the absolute best goalies in the world, someone you can set your watch to every season, and the main reason the Islanders are even a playoff-caliber team. He signed for 9.9 percent of the salary cap, which is well below Carey Price (14 percent), Sergei Bobrovsky (12.3 percent) and Andrei Vasilevskiy (11.7 percent). It’s clear that teams have wised up, but this feels like a bit of an overcorrection with how good Sorokin has been. Add a rising cap to the mix and this might be one of the better contracts signed today.
Contract grade: A
Sean Gentille: Sorokin, based on age, performance and fit, deserves The Big Deal more than anyone in the game today. If you don’t like this one for the Islanders, you’re constitutionally opposed to giving goaltenders money or term. That’s understandable, given the volatility associated with the position and the high-profile mistakes we’ve seen in the last couple years — but it’s not wholly correct. When you’ve got someone who’s ultra-elite — Vasilevskiy and prime Price come to mind — you cut the check.
Sorokin, over the last two seasons, has become one of those guys. His goals saved above expected in 2022-23 of 51.36 was the second-highest in the history of the stat, beaten out only by Henrik Lundqvist in 2009-10. If a skilled workhorse doesn’t get the bag, who does?
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Contract grade: A
Pierre Engvall
Luszczyszyn: Engvall is a fascinating player. He did a lot of things well, a real jack-of-all-trades type who was unfairly maligned in Toronto. With the Islanders, he really blossomed and found his way, but it does feel like the Islanders are paying for a percentage-induced binge because the Islanders scored 5.18 goals-per-60 with Engvall on the ice. Engvall only earned a point on 38 percent of those goals, though.
In any event, Engvall is a nice player to have and he fit really well with the Islanders.
But.
SEVEN YEARS?!
At that term, Engvall should be getting closer to $1.7 million after pricing in his decline. Instead, he got $3 million, which is already more than he’s worth on day one. Maybe he’ll be worth it as his role expands. Maybe. But it seems like an absolutely ridiculous bet to make given the length of the deal.
Contract grade: D+
Gentille: I was tempted to be a contrarian here, because $3 million a year for Engvall seems … fine. Not great. Not terrible. Maybe a light overpay, but he looked good on a team that needed a player of his type.
The term is where it falls apart. Engvall is 27 already, and the exact sort of player you can find with some extra work, languishing on the market after a week or so every offseason. Great rosters have a couple Pierre Engvalls making half of what he makes for one-seventh of the term he’s now making. This deal isn’t a catastrophe; very few deals worth $3 million are. There’s also no sense in pretending that it’s, y’know, any good.
Contract grade: D+
Scott Mayfield
Luszczyszyn: As far as top-four defenders go, a team could do much worse than Mayfield, who clocks in at 6-foot-5, 220 pounds. Big-boy hockey is in vogue and he fits the bill. He’s a classic shutdown type who has an outsized defensive impact — a strong part of the Islanders’ identity. Right now, he’s worth $3.5 million and that’s exactly what he got.
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The problem with paying for these types is always term and, in this case, it’s a big problem. Seven years is a long time for a 30-year-old shutdown defender, and Mayfield’s value rapidly drops over to the extent of the deal. People can talk about the cap increasing all they want, but it’s not increasing at the same rate as a 30-year-old shutdown defender’s on-ice value decreases. There’s an equilibrium to be struck that’s not being met here and, at that term, something closer to $2.5 million would’ve been much more palatable.
That’s not a disaster, but it almost certainly will be toward the end.
Contract grade: C-
Gentille: After the Golden Knights rode a bunch of really tall defensemen to a Stanley Cup, no pending UFA seemed more primed to cash in than Mayfield. Yes, he’s quite tall — but he’s also pretty good and has been consistently underrated over the last couple of years. Put him on a second pair with a decent puck-mover and you should be set. Guys like that normally cost more than $3.5 million a season.
The reason there is simple: guys like that typically don’t sign for seven years. Mayfield is a good bet to live up to his contract for a while, especially when the cap jumps $9 million or $10 million over the next couple years. Things might get ugly as he enters his mid-30s, but the on-balance result probably won’t be bad.
Contract grade: B-
Semyon Varlamov
Luszczyszyn: Sorokin has got all the press the last two years, but behind him, Varlamov has been quietly great in a supporting role. A .913 save percentage and 11.5 goals saved above expected in 54 games? That’s good stuff, and it helps the Islanders not run their best player into the ground.
If there’s a problem here, it’s the same problem as elsewhere: term! Varlamov is 35 and, as good as he is now, who knows what he will be in four years — especially at the most unpredictable position. A $2.75 million cap hit isn’t bad now, but it could be a tough one to stomach by the end of it.
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Contract grade: B-
Gentille: If you think Sorokin is the franchise, you should probably be OK with Varlamov signing this deal. He and Sorokin are tight and clearly work well together. Varlamov has put up a .911 save percentage or better in each of the last four seasons and saved more than seven goals above expected in 23 appearances last season.
He’s 35 now, which makes the term a little less than ideal, but we’ve seen goalies maintain their level of play longer in recent years. If you want a good backup, even when you’ve got a top-shelf starter who can play 60 games a season, this is what one costs.
Contract grade: C+
Overall grades
Luszczyszyn: C+. The plus is for Sorokin.
Gentille: C+. This is the Islanders in miniature; they took a bunch of guys from a fringe playoff team and paid them a bunch of money for a bunch of years. Same as it ever was — and Sorokin, as always, makes the whole mess look a little better.
(Top photo of Ilya Sorokin and Scott Mayfield: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)