There are only 15 days remaining until the MLB trade deadline and the Angels are on the clock. They must decide whether to trade Shohei Ohtani, possibly the best overall player of all time. Is the greatest deadline rental ever about to become available, and if so, what kind of haul will it take to land him?
Advertisement
The front-office decision-makers I’ve communicated with over the past several days have mixed opinions on whether the Angels will trade Ohtani by the Aug. 1 deadline. Some said the Angels told them they aren’t going to trade him, while others said the Angels will at least listen to offers. But the majority of the general managers and presidents of baseball operations I’ve surveyed think the most reasonable path for the Angels is to trade him, and believe they will eventually come to that conclusion.
Only time will tell what Angels owner Arte Moreno and GM Perry Minasian decide. However, even though it would be incredibly difficult to part with Ohtani, that’s what I believe they should do.
It’s a complicated situation. Let’s review where things stand.
First, the Angels would prefer to make the playoffs this year with Ohtani, then re-sign him in the offseason when he becomes a free agent. If they can reach the postseason, they think they’ll be able to persuade him to stay. But entering Monday, the Angels are six games back in the American League wild-card race, and right now would have to jump over the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros to get in. They’d also have to fend off the Mariners, who are one game ahead of them in the standings, and the Guardians, who are a half game behind them. To make matters worse, Mike Trout is on the injured list with no announced timeline for his return. The Angels are 46-48 and have never finished above .500 since they signed Ohtani before the 2018 season. They’re being unrealistic if they think they are a playoff team; they’re not.
Second, Ohtani has publicly said and made clear to people close to him that joining a winning organization will be an important factor when he decides which team to sign with in free agency. The Angels simply don’t have the farm system or major-league roster to show him that they will be a top-notch team in the near future. They just don’t have enough talent to trade now, nor do they have the prospect capital to turn things around in the next couple of years.
Advertisement
Therefore, the Angels have two choices: Keep Ohtani at the trade deadline and say goodbye to him in free agency, only receiving draft-pick compensation after making him the qualifying offer, or trade him in the next two weeks and get a significant return to bolster both their prospect pool and major-league team. In fact, if they make the right trade, it might even help them re-sign Ohtani as a free agent because they’d be able to show him how much the team — and its future — has improved with the infusion of talent from the deal.
Let’s try to determine his trade value at a high level, remembering that he’d only be a two- to three-month rental.
During MLB Network’s All-Star television coverage, Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez looked over at future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols and said that Ohtani is like both of them put together: an ace like Martinez was and an impact middle-of-the-order bat like Pujols was. I loved that framing because it’s a real reflection of his value. A team that acquires Ohtani gets an ace and a big bat. He would dramatically improve any contending team’s chances of making the playoffs or even winning a world championship. Therefore, the return must be in the range of five to eight players, depending on the level of talent going back to Los Angeles.
A best-case scenario for the Angels would be if Ohtani’s representatives at CAA came to them and said, “If you trade him to team X, we would try to work out a long-term deal with that team during a 48-hour window.” (Trades can be structured so that they’re pending an agreement between the player and his new team.) Then, the Angels could maximize the return even further. However, I’m told by major-league sources that scenario is not realistic, and that Ohtani is going to hit free agency in November so he can receive his true value, which most industry experts believe will be somewhere between $500 million and $600 million.
So which teams are best positioned to pounce if Ohtani becomes available? Let’s look at some possible trade destinations if the Angels decide to move him, and what type of packages it would take to land a unicorn. Keep in mind, teams that are not mentioned here, such as the Mets, will emerge as Ohtani suitors in free agency.
1. Rays
The Rays have a loaded farm system and president of baseball operations Erik Neander has made it clear they’re going into the trade deadline with their eyes wide open. He told me Sunday on “The Front Office,” my SiriusXM radio show, that they have the resources to absorb a contract like Ohtani’s, which has about $13 million remaining, and the prospect capital to make a trade of that magnitude. He emphasized that they have the “full support” of Rays owner Stuart Sternberg to acquire the necessary players to help the club take the next step: winning a championship. The Rays’ system is so deep they could offer a third-base prospect such as Junior Caminero or Curtis Mead, a first baseman like Kyle Manzardo, a speedy second baseman like Vidal Bruján and any number of intriguing minor-league pitchers. They also might be willing to add a major-league player like right fielder Josh Lowe if needed to get a deal done. The Rays aren’t satisfied with being the best team in baseball in terms of wins per dollars spent; all they care about is finally winning a World Series, and a trade for Ohtani would give them their best shot ever.
Could we see the @RaysBaseball as big spenders at the August 1st trade deadline? 👀#RaysUp | #ErikNeander | @JimDuquetteGM | @JimBowdenGM pic.twitter.com/utT83Cl0gc
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) July 16, 2023
2. Dodgers
The Dodgers’ farm system is loaded from top to bottom, and they are equipped to make a 10-for-1 type trade to land Ohtani. They also have the resources to sign him long term, which if they acquired him in a trade would probably really enhance their chances of getting that done. The Angels don’t need a catcher because they have Logan O’Hoppe, who is working his way back from shoulder surgery, but just based on their respective value, would have to insist on either Diego Cartaya or Dalton Rushing, both top catching prospects, being included in the trade. Then they could ask for a trio of pitching prospects who have cut their teeth in the majors: Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, and either Michael Grove or Ryan Pepiot. Add a couple of position players to the package, such as outfielder Andy Pages and either third baseman Michael Busch or outfielder Josue De Paula, and you start getting close to the necessary return value for a deal. One big question: Would the Angels be willing to trade Ohtani to the nearby Dodgers?
Advertisement
3. Mariners
The Mariners would be an interesting trade partner because they could address the Angels’ biggest organizational need by offering two young starting pitchers. If they offered some combination of two of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock, along with center fielder Jonatan Clase, shortstop Cole Young and outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez, they would have a legitimate chance of landing him. In addition, Ohtani loves Seattle and has lived there during two offseasons, so the Mariners would have a huge head start toward signing him in free agency. This package is a steep price, but probably worth it if they could eventually team Ohtani and Julio Rodríguez as faces of the franchise for the next decade.
4. Rangers
I expect the Rangers to be in on Ohtani if he’s available via trade. They know they have a shot to win the AL West (and the World Series for that matter), owner Ray Davis is providing the resources, GM Chris Young is providing the aggressiveness from the front office, and manager Bruce Bochy keeps showing why he’ll eventually be in the Hall of Fame. The Rangers’ package could include two starting pitchers from the group of Owen White, Brock Porter, Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker (he’s on the IL after Tommy John surgery). Add outfielders Evan Carter and Dustin Harris and second baseman Justin Foscue to the mix and they’d have a legitimate chance of landing Ohtani.
5. Yankees
The Yankees always seem to be involved when players of Ohtani’s caliber become available on the trade market, but they appear focused on adding pitching (another starter and/or bullpen help) and a left fielder. That’s what GM Brian Cashman told me in our conversation Sunday on SiriusXM. I’m also not sure they want to give up a huge chunk of their farm system for two or three months of Ohtani, considering most people in the industry believe he will end up signing with one of the West Coast teams (Dodgers, Mariners, Giants, Angels or Padres) in free agency. But it is the Yankees, so anything is possible. A package could include outfielders Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones, catcher Austin Wells, shortstop Oswald Peraza, a starting pitcher such as Clarke Schmidt, and add from there.
GO DEEPER
What could Yankees get at trade deadline? Jim Bowden weighs 7 hypothetical deals
Brian Cashman's @Yankees trade deadline shopping list:
• Pitching
• Offensive piece that will contribute daily#Yankees | #RepBX | @JimDuquetteGM | @JimBowdenGM pic.twitter.com/unCxCvXyGx— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) July 16, 2023
6. Braves
The Braves are the best team in baseball and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is always looking to add a top-of-the-rotation starter. However, they don’t have enough left in their farm system to trade for Ohtani, and they’re not going to break up their major-league team, which is among the favorites to win the World Series. Expect them to do their due diligence but not be in the mix if Ohtani is traded.
7. Giants
The Giants have been trying to land a superstar player for years, including during last offseason, when they attempted to sign Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. They’d love to land Ohtani in free agency this winter, but if he becomes available via trade, I question whether they would be willing to unload their farm system or if they’d even have enough to compete with the other teams that would be pushing for him. Therefore, at this point, I think they’re more of a long shot to be on the other end of an Ohtani trade. But If they did make a run at him, the conversation would have to start with left-handed pitchers Kyle Harrison and Carson Whisenhunt, shortstop Marco Luciano, and outfielders Luis Matos and Grant McCray. The Giants have worked to build up their system, and to tear it all down for a rental doesn’t seem like something president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be willing to do. Instead, I see their best shot at Ohtani being in free agency.
8. Orioles
The Orioles have enough to trade for Ohtani, but there is no way they’re going to deal away a lot of the young talent they’ve accumulated over the past four years. As they push for the playoffs, look for the Orioles to make a play for pitchers such as Jack Flaherty, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery or Marcus Stroman instead.
9. Padres
The Padres have enough talent to land Ohtani, as they could start the conversation with shortstop Jackson Merrill, catcher Ethan Salas and pitchers Dylan Lesko and Robby Snelling. All four are top 100 prospects. But they significantly depleted their farm system last year in the Juan Soto trade, and it’s hard to see them doing it again. Their team has plenty of stars already, so don’t expect them to chase another one now. Instead, they’ll be working on improving the edges of the roster at the trade deadline, something president of baseball operations A.J. Preller reiterated Sunday on my radio show.
GO DEEPER
All eyes on Padres at trade deadline: Jim Bowden on their options and Juan Soto's future
Don't expect there to be a trade deadline sale happening in San Diego. @Padres | #Padres | #BringTheGold | @JimDuquetteGM | @JimBowdenGM pic.twitter.com/de7wHzUJi0
— MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (@MLBNetworkRadio) July 16, 2023
10. Reds, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Guardians
These teams are built — and are building — for the long term. None of them are mortgaging their future for a rental, even one as special as Ohtani.
Bottom line, only a handful of teams have a legitimate chance to trade for Ohtani, should he become available over the next 15 days. In my opinion, that group would be led by the Rays, Dodgers, Mariners and Rangers.
The Angels find themselves in an impossible situation — trade away a generational talent or likely lose him for very little (draft-pick compensation) when he departs in free agency. But trading Ohtani, no matter how hard, is the best baseball and business decision they can make right now. The most difficult part for the Angels is they’ll never get enough in a trade to satisfy their wants. All they can do is tell teams what they’d like in return, then sift through all of the final trade offers and pick the best one.
Advertisement
It’s important that the Angels be transparent with Ohtani if they go down this road, so they still have a chance to sign him in free agency. They also need to be as transparent as possible with their fan base throughout the process.
The possibility of an Ohtani trade has been talked about in the industry for more than a year, but now the moment is here. Will the Angels move him? What uniform will Ohtani be wearing on Aug. 2?
GO DEEPER
'You see it everywhere:' How Angels are handling constant talk about Shohei Ohtani's future
GO DEEPER
MLB trade deadline outlook for all 30 teams: Latest on buyers, sellers and those in between
(Top photo: Michael Owens / Getty Images)
