Rosenthal: Shohei Ohtani is worth $500 million in free agency, even if he’s only a hitter

He’s still worth $500 million, if not more.

Shohei Ohtani has a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), but remains the best hitter in the game. He will be a free agent at 29, two years younger than Aaron Judge was entering the open market. The Yankees gave Judge a nine-year, $360 million contract, and there was no possibility he could pitch. There still is with Ohtani.

Even if Ohtani requires a second Tommy John surgery and cannot pitch in 2024, the best guess is he will return to the mound. In his six major-league seasons, he has defied every prediction, every expectation, repeatedly silenced his skeptics. The degree of difficulty returning from a second Tommy John is higher. But Ohtani will just view it as one more challenge.

His injury actually brings a degree of clarity to his free agency. The team that signs Ohtani will pay him as a hitter. Anything he provides as a pitcher will be a bonus. The calculations we’ve all made for the past several months — Is he worth $400 million as a hitter? $300 million as a pitcher? How should teams value the additional income he generates? — no longer apply. Ohtani’s next contract probably will need to be creatively structured, not just with incentives, but also opt-outs that will enable him to maximize his value if he re-establishes himself as a pitcher.

Additional reading:

Ohtani underwent his first Tommy John surgery on Oct. 1, 2018. He returned as a hitter the following May 9. A second Tommy John might require a longer recovery. The team that signs him certainly would not want to rush him back in the first year of a long-term deal. But Ohtani can miss half of ‘24 and still carry significant value. And if he eventually needs to abandon pitching, his speed and athleticism almost certainly will make him an above-average outfielder, if not elite.

Shohei Ohtani reconfigured our understanding of what one person can accomplish on a baseball field. But the limitations of the human body remain undefeated. In this case, everyone loses. https://t.co/lfwgNDpGU2

— Andy McCullough (@ByMcCullough) August 24, 2023

Ohtani leads the majors with 44 home runs, one more than Matt Olson. He is first in slugging percentage by 64 percentage points and first in OPS by 71, with Mookie Betts second in both categories. He also has stolen 17 bases in 22 attempts. That is the player who will be hitting the open market, and his marketing potential only increases his value. Even if Ohtani is just a hitter, he will help his next team sell more tickets, more merchandise, more billboards, you name it, just because he is on their roster.

Think back to when the Nationals offered Juan Soto a 15-year, $440 million extension a little more than a year ago, prompting his trade to the Padres. Soto was 23 then, with two years of arbitration remaining, so the comparison to Ohtani is not apples and oranges. If anything, Soto was an even more dominant hitter at that point than Ohtani is now, coming off a 2021 season in which his OPS+ was 117 percent above league average. Ohtani this season is 83 percent above.

Soto turned down the Nationals’ offer because only one team was bidding; he wanted to establish his value as a 26-year-old free agent, available to every team. His value has since fallen. His OPS+ since joining the Padres is a mere 47 percent above league average. But the initial thought was Soto would get at least $500 million in free agency, maybe $600 million. And he still might.

Ohtani’s ceiling before his latest elbow injury was not as clear. Almost anything seemed possible. But in truth, his future as a pitcher was always uncertain. Would he pitch two more years? Four more? Six? It’s doubtful any team envisioned him competing for a Cy Young Award in every season of a long-term contract.

Wednesday’s distressing news will bring a certain sobriety to Ohtani’s free-agent process that might have been lacking otherwise. Teams cannot pay him as a two-way superstar when his future dominance as a pitcher is much more in question. But they still can pay him for who he is virtually certain to remain, one of the sport’s top offensive players. That’s worth $500 million. At least that.

(Photo: Ron Jenkins / Getty Images)