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KANSAS CITY, Mo. — The Buffalo Bills had every reason imaginable to lose Sunday.
They were up against the defending champion Chiefs on the road, at a place Kansas City seldomly loses. The Bills also were going for a third-straight regular-season win at Arrowhead Stadium, which is even rarer.
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The Chiefs lose even less often after a regular-season loss. Since 2019, they had won 14 of their 16 games immediately following a regular-season loss, outscoring opponents 28.6 to 20.2. That includes a 3-0 mark after losses this season.
What’s more, the Bills were drowning in a sea of AFC wild-card hopefuls at 11th in the conference. And all the while, they saw one of their highest-paid players getting arrested and accused of domestic assault plus their head coach face public scrutiny for comments made in a 2019 team meeting.
Yet, there the Bills were, in victory formation by the end of Sunday’s game. Somehow, despite a brutally disappointing first 12 games, the Bills pulled off the most unlikely victory of their final five games.
And they hope it’s the catalyst toward a playoff push that will still take more doing. Here’s what stood out from Sunday’s 20-17 win.
Late-game defense bucks usual trend in K.C.
As several of Buffalo’s games have unraveled, a big piece of the 2023 puzzle has been the defense struggling in tight games. Immediately after Week 12’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills’ defense ranked 31st in the NFL both in EPA and third-down conversion rate when either tied or ahead one score in the fourth quarter and overtime, according to TruMedia. And Buffalo headed down a similar path to begin the second half Sunday.
The defense, as it had done in several outings, put together a good first half — almost unexpectedly, given some of the talent disparity at key positions. On the Chiefs’ initial drive of the second half, Patrick Mahomes and company seemed to have made critical adjustments, looking more like their usual, explosive selves. The Chiefs collected four first downs and averaged 8.3 yards per play on the way to a touchdown to cut the deficit to three. It’s a movie Bills fans have seen many times before in 2023: When an opponent figures it out, the Bills can’t respond and a close loss ensues. The Bills’ offense even played into the usual plot as the Chiefs settled in after the Bills reached 17 points and forced a punt on the Bills’ next three possessions. Not only did they punt, they could barely stay on the field. Over that three-drive stretch, the Bills ran only 12 total plays, collected one first down and averaged a horrendous 1.1 yards per play. Even on the Bills’ go-ahead field-goal drive late in the game, they averaged a mere 3.9 yards per play.
Christian Benford jars it loose and the Bills recover!
📺: #BUFvsKC on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/pWMED8S30C pic.twitter.com/JgX2Hs07NF— NFL (@NFL) December 10, 2023
But rather than succumbing to the usual modus operandi, the defense bucked the trend. Over the Chiefs’ final four drives, the Bills surrendered three points. In the fourth quarter especially, the period they have struggled so much in during close games, the Bills shut the door on the Chiefs. Kansas City did not convert any of its three attempts on third down. Along the way, there were several huge individual moments. Christian Benford, who continues to blossom as the team’s starting cornerback in his second season, punched the ball out to force a fumble and turnover. The pass rush continued to get pressure. Ed Oliver came up with an outstanding pass deflection on third down of the Chiefs’ final drive. And even when Kansas City managed an explosive play over 15 yards, the Bills came back on the next set of downs to end the drive. And they accomplished all of that without starting safety Micah Hyde and key rotational pass rusher A.J. Epenesa available. They were certainly fortunate Kadarius Toney lacked attention to detail on the lateral that wasn’t. It would have been the most ridiculous way for the Bills to lose this season — and that’s saying something. But even after that play, they weren’t rattled. Sean McDermott’s defense deserves a ton of credit for thwarting Mahomes time and time again in the second half, despite the odds being stacked against it.
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Knox-Kincaid 12 personnel returns in a big way to uneven results
The last time the Bills had both tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid available to them was in Week 7 against the New England Patriots, before a whirlwind of changes to the offense. Ken Dorsey was still the offensive coordinator, Kincaid had yet to emerge as the go-to target the team has seen over their last five games, and the Bills hadn’t pushed slot receiver Khalil Shakir past the other third receiver options just yet. With interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady at the controls and both Kincaid and Shakir’s emergence in tow, their early-season commitment to 12 personnel was at least somewhat in question.
However, in Knox’s first game back from injured reserve, Brady went right back to early-season tendencies. Of the Bills’ non-penalty plays on offense, the Bills used the Knox-Kincaid version of 12 personnel 31.9 percent of the time. The Bills found a lot of huge gains with the formation early on. They used the package on 10 first-half plays, gaining 72 total yards and collecting one of their only two touchdowns of the game. But once the Chiefs made adjustments, there was an extreme drop-off with the Knox-Kincaid combination. On those 13 plays in the second half, the Bills gained only 29 yards and a minuscule 2.2 yards per play. It will be worth the Bills’ time to figure out where they went wrong in the second half and if what the Chiefs did to thwart them is repeatable by future opponents.
Kincaid keeps huge role despite Knox’s return
One of the biggest questions upon Knox’s return was how the snaps would be distributed. McDermott even alluded this week to distribution among Knox, Kincaid and Shakir changing because of Kincaid and Shakir’s emergence. And despite Knox’s return, Kincaid remained a prominent piece of the Bills offense Sunday. Kincaid was on the field for nearly 79 percent of the Bills’ non-kneel-down snaps. Shakir, who was always likely to be the most impacted by Knox’s return to the active roster, took 60 percent of the offensive snaps. Knox had 48 percent, but that likely isn’t projectable along the same plane. The Bills often like to do a slow ramp-up with players coming off a lengthy injury absence and Knox likely isn’t any different. Next weekend’s game against the Dallas Cowboys will give us a clearer look at their intentions, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Knox eat even more into Shakir’s snaps.
It’s time to go full James Cook
The Bills’ fascination with Latavius Murray has reached a tipping point. They feel very strongly about Murray’s fit within the locker room and what he means to the team, but he can continue to mean a lot to the team without siphoning snaps from a player who was one of their three best performers Sunday. Second-year running back James Cook set the tone early as a high-impact player. He averaged 12.3 yards per play in the first half when he had a rushing attempt or was targeted through the air. For the game, Cook averaged 9.4 yards per play on 15 total touches. It’s borderline inexcusable to replace Cook for more than a few snaps here or there. For the game, Cook received only 45 percent of the Bills’ non-kneel-down snaps.
Karma is a Bills win. #BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/9uOWyO8GsN
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 11, 2023
Cook did not touch the field at the end of the first half when the Bills got the ball back from the Chiefs. Murray took all eight of those plays. Cook played only 48.6 percent of the second-half snaps — a slight improvement from his first-half mark of 42.1 percent. Ty Johnson took only seven fewer snaps than Cook in the second half. Johnson has been a nice change-of-pace player, but replacing Cook for as much time as they did just cannot continue. Cook’s third-down blitz pickup may not be perfect, but it’s not enough to keep him off the field for nearly 55 percent of the offensive snaps. This needs to change quickly for the Bills.
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Advantage for the Bills in the playoff hunt?
The Bills have a unique remaining schedule compared to the other six teams in the wild-card playoff hunt. Nearly every other team in the wild-card hunt plays each other through the final four weeks. The Browns play the Texans and Bengals. The Steelers play the Colts and Bengals. The Colts play the Steelers and Texans. The Texans play the Browns and the Colts. The Bengals play the Steelers and the Browns. The Bills don’t play any of those teams, which helps them avoid the potential cannibalization of the AFC playoff picture. The only other team also with that potential advantage is the Broncos. The Bills will just have to hope for the Broncos to lose outright because that head-to-head loss to Denver may loom large. However, as the Bills look to creep up the standings and position themselves better for tiebreaker scenarios, all these teams playing one another can only help if it all breaks correctly.
Bills MVP: RB James Cook — 15 touches, 141 yards and a touchdown. They need to play Cook more.
Bills LVP: WR Gabe Davis — Two targets, zero catches, zero yards. It continues to be feast or famine for Davis, which calls into question what the Bills may plan to do in the offseason with the pending free agent.
Up next: The 7-6 Bills will host the explosive 10-3 Cowboys, who are fresh off a thorough victory over the Eagles.
(Photo: William Purnell / Getty Images)
