Let’s start with the game of the day, the Bills at the Chiefs. I wrote earlier in the week at BestOdds.com how the Bills were unique in history for having a non-winning record despite a plus-100 point differential through 12 games. The closest teams to 6-6 went 15-3 the balance of the year. The Bills basically had the Yahtzee outcome for their postseason hopes, but I do expect them to finish 10-7.
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They were saved by an offensive offsides call on the clueless Kadarius Toney, the epitome of the “all tools, no toolbox” player. Toney was 100% offsides with his foot, so it has to be called. Patrick Mahomes saying the play was too cool to call back and crying about it is absurd. Is the ref supposed to pick up the flag if the subsequent play is memorable? For the record, the scoring on that play is crazy. I remember it (sort of) every time we have a successful lateral post reception. But just so you know if your beat was bad, it would have been a 29-yard catch for Travis Kelce, a 20-yard TD catch for Toney and a 49-yard TD pass for Mahomes. Unless there has been a rule change since 2018, but I don’t think there has been.
UPDATE: Okay @MikeD. is right. So in the 2018 play that I used as a basis for this reporting, Drake got credit for 52 yards of receiving but no catch. So actually, it would be 49-yard TD pass by Mahomes to Toney. 29-yard catch by Kelce. 20 receiving yards by Toney but no catch. What is super weird is that Drake had 55 receiving yards and one catch for one TD which is exactly the difference between the Stills catch before the laterals started and the length of the Drake TD play. But there’s a three-yard catch in there earlier in the third quarter that I saw as a running play by mistake.
We see how environment matters even for the greats. Mahomes’ efficiency has gone from great to below average (YPA). His TD rate has cratered. He’s had one good game going back to the week before Halloween.
As for the Bills, they basically did everything they could to lose but the Chiefs just refused to cooperate. Buffalo was doing great until they forgot about James Cook and Josh Allen made that unforced error (his calling card).
It’s about over for Travis Kelce. I’ll be shocked if he plays next year. He’s a good player still but nothing special anymore. Who wants to hang around as a plebe when you once were a gladiator?
ADDENDUM: Kelce is a first-ballot Hall of Famer and probably the GOAT TE. Maybe the perception that Kelce is fading dramatically is unfounded since his surface stats are holding up mostly at first glance. However, he has 11 plays of 20+ yards. Last year, 19. But in 2021, 13. 2020, 23, So big plays per game this year are down over 20% vs. the prior three years. That’s a lot. And this is from the Wall Street Journal in November: “….In the same spirit, perhaps, he keeps his own counsel about his round-the-clock physical anguish. “That’s the only thing I’ve never really been open about,” he says, “the discomfort. The pain. The lingering injuries—the 10 surgeries I’ve had that I still feel every single surgery to this day.” Sounds like he’s looking for the check
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Jerry Jeudy did have the most targets, and I noticed a lot of air yards, which are prayer yards when they’re delivered by Russell Wilson.
The Chargers have to keep Justin Herbert and tear the rest of the offense down. Keenan Allen can’t be your best receiver. Let’s get serious, please.
Other than the Big 4, the Niners offense had 36 yards. But the Big 4 had 505. It’s just comical how loaded San Francisco is. You have to grab the ticket at the deli counter for your number to be called to make a big play. Everything works when everyone is that good.
Honestly, would the Niners have been worse off for all of 2023 without Brock Purdy or Christian McCaffrey? If you can’t say, Purdy can’t be the MVP.
I remember when Aidan O’Connell was the Raiders’ future and when Joshua Dobbs would have led the Jets to five Super Bowls this year if only they had the foresight to have acquired him. Life turns on a dime.
Zach Wilson was fantastic and looked like he was playing indoors, while C.J. Stroud could barely throw a spiral in the rain. Robert Saleh listened to beat writers and radio callers turned (former) talk-show hosts to bench Wilson and that’s just unforgivable given how obviously horrible the other options were. Don’t tell me what a No. 2 overall pick can’t do. Tell me what he can do, and do those things with him because the man obviously has some traits.
This was BYU Zach Wilson right here: pic.twitter.com/dmOAHEuuUv https://t.co/cIs4tho0iO
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 10, 2023
The Jets defense is crazy good, so Stroud can definitely bounce back. Just write this game off. His receiving corps was also depleted once Nico Collins got hurt. The Jets haven’t allowed a 300-yard passer since 2021.
Breece Hall may have 75 catches this year. I’ll be aggressive with him in 2024, when his knee will be fully healed. He’s fine now with Wilson at QB.
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Have to tip my cap to Rachaad White. Rare down day for Mike Evans, who almost had a TD catch.
For the Falcons, the question going forward is whether Desmond Ridder is good enough to buy into Drake London as a solid WR2. I don’t think so — I’m probably not going to have shares in 2024. He has two big games all year and no TDs since Week 4.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dropped a couple of passes that he normally hauls in, not that they were easy catches. But the story here is the Bears are a legit Top 5 defense that you probably want to avoid if you can — I’m talking recent and full-season samples.
Detroit should have called more run plays, given nothing else really worked.
Justin Fields didn’t get sacked on his last 17 pass attempts and that won them the game. It’s really that simple.
D’Onta Foreman was the main RB by a mile. He even caught a couple of passes for 22 yards. Foreman can’t be counted on physically, probably, but the guy can play. He’s the one Achilles comeback story at RB.
No matter what happens at QB for the Bears, DJ Moore is a borderline WR1 at a minimum. I underrated him in August.
The Colts generating no offense against a Cincinnati defense that’s been bad all year was surprising. But it was not shocking. Gardner Minshew? Give me a break. He’s a JAG, and by that I don’t mean a Jaguar. (Just A Guy.)
Very good coaching with Jake Browning by the Bengals. They’ve looked better the past two weeks with Browning than they did overall with Joe Burrow, to be honest. Think about that.
This is spot on about Joe Mixon….
Joe Mixon is the worst good player
— Andrew Cooper (@CoopAFiasco) December 10, 2023
No, Trevor Lawrence isn’t bad. He’s good. He’s just not currently, nor will he ever be, great. It’s Year 3. He has a proven coach, system, solid skill players. But there has been no liftoff. He’s failed to launch.
Evan Engram had the T.J. Hockenson special. Just a zillion opportunities where the defense didn’t even care much about him. It works for us though.
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David Njoku was actually far more impressive with his tight-end playmaking.
Stop it with Elijah Moore. I saw this guy up close for a couple of years in New York and he’s purely a slot receiver, a complementary piece. Yet he thinks he’s an alpha. You’re not the lead singer, dude. Be content to be an out-of-focus guy.
Bryce Young had Jonathan Mingo wide open for an easy 50-yard TD with 10 seconds left in the first half and overthrew him. What does this guy do well? I’m just gobsmacked by how he was a consensus No. 1 overall pick.
The game was just a brutal slog. I’d seriously pull the plug on Young, but remember the Panthers traded their first-round pick to the Bears. They’re so screwed. I can’t see how they can get any attractive coaching candidate to jump on this live grenade.
Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson were a pleasure to watch. Kyren Williams proved again he’s a stud and a high first-round pick in 2024. Cooper Kupp? I doubted you, man. You looked cooked. But Sunday was vintage. DFS darling Davis Allen had a huge drop in overtime that ended up costing the Rams the game.
The Ravens should stop playing around and give the rock to Keaton Mitchell, who is the perfect running-game complement to Jackson. And Jackson supported three receivers, which is very unusual for him. His MVP odds should improve tomorrow. All three receivers looked good. Odell Beckham Jr., second ACL and all, is 17-343-3 in his past five games. That’s 13.9 points per game, 235 for a season, WR2 territory in PPR. But he still was a bad draft pick in August since you had to survive the first nine weeks, which were worthless.
GO DEEPER
Fantasy Football Rankings Week 15: Sleepers, projections, starts, sits | Antonio Gibson, Zay Flowers and more
(Photo of Travis Kelce: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports)
