Manchester United and Newcastle United’s excellent midweek Brexit impressions are bad news for the Premier League’s hopes of securing an extra Champions League place for next season.
Had they dropped into the Europa League, it would not be so bleak but complete elimination leaves the remaining English clubs facing an uphill battle.
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Arsenal and Manchester City will fly the Premier League flag in the Champions League knockouts while Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham are the trio of English clubs in the Europa League last 16.
Aston Villa are straight through to the same round of the Europa Conference League.
But where are the extra Champions League places heading based on the group-stage evidence?
First, what has changed this season?
The Champions League is expanding from 32 teams to 36 next season, which means the format of the tournament itself will also change. We have explained in great detail all of those changes, which you can find below.
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How the new Champions League format works
In total, another four spots will be up for grabs; one via a third-placed finish in the country that stands fifth in UEFA’s nation coefficient rankings (it’s currently France); one to a lesser domestic champion through the qualification rounds; and two to the nations who had the best collective performances from their clubs in the previous season’s European competitions.
The latter are what UEFA is calling its “European Performance Spots” and it is those that could mean a fifth-placed finish in the Premier League this season — or Italy’s Serie A, Spain’s La Liga or Germany’s Bundesliga — would be enough to qualify for the 2024-25 Champions League.
How has England generally fared in the coefficient rankings?
Very well in recent years.
In each of the past three seasons, England has been top of UEFA’s coefficient table; missing out on the top two in just one of the last seven campaigns.
The coefficient is worked out as an average rather than a total, cancelling out the advantage that would be gained by leagues with more European representatives. The equation for each league is: number of points accumulated divided by number of competing teams.
Here is how each country accumulates those points:
UCL = UEFA Champions League, UEL = UEFA Europa League, UECL = UEFA Europa Conference League
- 2 – All wins from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All wins in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 1 – All draws from group stage (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 0.5 – All draws in qualifying and play-off matches (UCL, UEL, UECL)
- 4 – Group stage bonus participation (UCL)
- 4 – Round of 16 bonus participation (UCL)
- 4 – Group winners (UEL)
- 2 – Group runners-up (UEL)
- 2 – Group winners (UECL)
- 1 – Group runners-up (UECL)
- 1 – Each round clubs reach from the round of 16 (UCL, UEL)
- 1 – Each round clubs reach from the semi-finals (UECL)
So, how do Manchester United and Newcastle’s eliminations affect this season’s ranking?
Unsurprisingly, two really poor Champions League campaigns, where the most points are on offer, have had an adverse effect on England’s chances of securing a fifth qualification place.
And, with the Premier League having eight European representatives, it was always going to be a tough ask to retain top spot with the points divided across eight teams rather than the usual seven.
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But just two wins between Manchester United and Newcastle is nothing short of a coefficient disaster. Fortunately, holders Manchester City won all six of their group games and have accumulated the maximum amount of coefficient points so far (21).
Whoever finishes fifth in the Premier League might be thankful for that impeccable record come the end of this season. Right now, Opta’s predictive model makes Tottenham Hotspur the most likely team to come fifth.
| Team | Probability of 5th place |
|---|---|
34.5% | |
22.6% | |
14.1% | |
10.5% | |
5.4% | |
4.7% | |
3.4% | |
2.3% |
In the Europa League and Europa Conference League, there were no problems for English sides as Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool and West Ham finished top of their groups. But, strangely, it might have been more beneficial for them to have been the runners up.
They would have moved into a knockout play-off round if they had finished second and, while the coefficient points do not get added to the club’s tally, they are added to the nation’s tally (Manchester United managed a draw and a win in that round against Barcelona last season, so three points were added to England’s coefficient total for 2022-23.)
And this is a crucial detail, because it means that those teams could have done the Premier League a potential points favour by having to take part in the Europa League/Conference League play-off round. It also shows how potentially damaging it was that both Newcastle and Manchester United finished bottom of their Champions League groups. Had one or both finished third it would have meant a further opportunity to garner crucial points for the Premier League in that play-off round.
Which are the other leagues to keep an eye on?
All of those factors mean England is just third in the current coefficient ranking, which would not be good enough to gain an extra Champions League place.
The table looked like this after the conclusion of the group stages in all three European competitions:
| Pos | Country | Coefficient points |
|---|---|---|
1 | Italy | 14.00 |
2 | Germany | 13.64 |
3 | England | 13.63 |
4 | Spain | 12.69 |
5 | Czech Republic | 12.00 |
Italy and Germany in the places above England both have three teams through to the Champions League last 16, compared to England’s two.
Italy looks well set to finish in the top two with all seven of their representatives through to their respective knockout stages. But, with all three of their remaining Champions League sides finishing second in their groups, progression to the quarter-final could be tough.
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Germany will expect Bayern Munich to reach the latter stages, while Group F winners Borussia Dortmund should get a favourable tie as they cannot be drawn against Paris Saint-Germain. Bundesliga frontrunners Bayer Leverkusen cruised through the Europa League group stage, winning all six of their games.
Like England, Spain is hampered by their points being split across eight teams after Osasuna failed in Europa Conference League qualifying and Sevilla were eliminated altogether this week. They do, however, have four teams left in the Champions League who, having won their groups, will be expecting to make the quarter-final.
France has six teams left in Europe but will go into February’s knockouts seventh in the coefficient ranking behind Czech Republic in fifth and Belgium in sixth.
But fear not Premier League fans.
Opta’s expected model — based on a combination of team rankings, each team’s historical and recent performances, and implied betting market odds — predicts that England will top the coefficient ranking at the end of the season, followed by Italy closely beating Germany to the second extra place.
So, how do Premier League clubs make that happen?
I wish it was as simple as saying “Manchester City do X, Liverpool do Y and Aston Villa do Z” but it is excruciatingly complicated.
That is because it relies on English clubs performing well while praying on the downfall of Italian and German and clubs.
Manchester City retaining their Champions League crown, or Arsenal stealing it for the first time would be hugely beneficial, but this is a group project. A final between Pep Guardiola’s side and the one managed by his former assistant would be the perfect outcome there.
In the Europa League, Liverpool’s position as favourites has only been strengthened by the lack of a top European side joining them from the Champions League. A final made up of two English sides is a real possibility with Brighton’s quality and West Ham’s recent pedigree.
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And, as Europa Conference League favourites, it is imperative that Aston Villa are able to replicate their Premier League form to sustain a deep run. Strong knockout stage performances are likely to be in their best interests as one of the teams in the mix for Champions League qualification.
As the fifth-place team in the Premier League at the time of writing, Tottenham Hotspur — who missed out on Europe completely last season — will be watching their peers from afar.
(Top photo: Michael Steele/Getty Images)