For the New York Mets, Yoshinobu Yamamoto exists in a special category of one. According to people briefed on the club’s thinking, the Mets view Yamamoto, the 25-year-old star free-agent pitcher from Japan, as someone at the top of the market worth pursuing as hard as possible. In that regard, he stands alone as a player worth splurging on.
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In other words, if the Mets don’t land Yamamoto, expect their offseason to continue playing out differently than the past couple of years. For instance, owner Steve Cohen last year authorized the highest payroll in baseball history. This winter, the first under president of baseball operations David Stearns, the Mets have distributed just a few one-year deals to complementary players or players looking to recapture past success.
So, if the Mets miss out on Yamamoto, they are not expected to simply pivot to the next-best available free-agent pitcher whether that be Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Somewhere in the next tier, Lucas Giolito would be of interest to the club in theory, but he also may end up commanding a deal beyond the Mets’ preferred range. To find matches with the club’s line of thinking, keep looking lower.
The Mets’ roster — particularly the pitching staff — features holes, so they will remain active and spend money. But people familiar with the club’s thinking expect them to continue to dole out one-year or two-year deals here and there. This isn’t like last season when the Mets signed Justin Verlander but likely had Carlos Rodón as their pricey fallback plan; it sounds as if the Mets have a more focused approach for 2024.
Unless someone’s market changes in a significant way, the Mets are not expected to pursue someone who’d make a big splash — beyond one exception.
Yamamoto.
Sources offered a couple of key explanations for the Mets’ way of thinking.
For one, Yamamoto presents a special opportunity for any club because he’s about five years younger than the typical free agent and profiles as a front-line pitcher.
Also, several people within the industry see a recalibration year as a need for the Mets.
To be clear, under Cohen, the expectation is that the Mets will continue to reside near the top of the league in payroll in future years. Even this year, the Mets’ payroll will challenge for the top spot. But that’s part of the Mets’ problem. They still carry an expensive operation despite delivering mediocre results last year. They are paying nearly $70 million to players on other teams. That kind of spending, plus the escalating luxury tax penalties that accompany it, seems unstainable regardless of how rich the owner is.
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Given the amount of money that potentially comes off the Mets’ books, some familiar with the Mets’ thinking say New York has an eye toward next winter when they have major payroll flexibility. The Mets’ 2025 payroll projects to be $119 million, as things stand, so it’s possible for them to reset under the tax completely if they want.
Thus, the appearance of caution in free agency this year may be purely circumstantial to where they are as an organization and not indicative of how they intend to operate every year. Even now, with Cohen, the Mets shouldn’t be completely counted out for players until they’ve signed elsewhere. But based on conversations around the league, the first offseason of the partnership between Cohen and Stearns looks to feature some patience.
This apparent path for the Mets shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Max Scherzer suggested that part of the reason he waived his no-trade clause at the trade deadline was because he was told the Mets wouldn’t be as aggressive in free agency. Since the trade deadline, the Mets’ leaders have suggested they’d enter 2024 with lower odds of winning a World Series.
The Mets are more than one player away from being pegged as a favorite for a deep playoff run. At worst, a recalibration year of sorts would give New York — especially in the first year of a new front office — an opportunity to learn more about their young players and their farm system.
The Mets’ minor-league system has improved but lacks premium pitching (their best pitching prospects are viewed as No. 3-type starters by rival evaluators). Starting pitching is the highest form of currency in baseball, and the Mets don’t have much of it, which is another reason they find themselves in this position.
Still, since taking the job, Stearns has said the Mets would field a competitive team. On his first day, Stearns said the Mets should be in the playoff race. That’s a lower bar than it sounds like given the expanded format, but it’s nonetheless one the Mets want to clear.
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To help them do that, the Mets are looking for pitching help, an outfielder for regular playing time and, preferably, right-handed hitting help at third base in the wake of Ronny Mauricio’s injury, based on conversations with people briefed on the club’s thinking. The list may not end there, but those loom as objectives. For all of those items, the price sounds like it will be a determining factor in what kind of player they end up with. They’re looking for affordability.
That is, except with Yamamoto, who would help now and in the future.
Similar to the other serious suitors for Yamamoto, the Mets do not know if they will secure his signature. Nonetheless, he’s an example of the Mets targeting a player and Cohen — as evidenced by a recent trip to Japan — being willing to do whatever it takes to get him. Even so, they may not end up with him. Either way, it doesn’t sound like there’s another available player the Mets believe is worth a premium price.
(Top photo of Steve Cohen: Brad Penner / USA Today)
