The New York Yankees plan quite a different approach than the New York Mets if they fail to sign Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
As The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote Sunday, the Mets essentially are in Yamamoto-or-bust mode. If they lose out in the bidding, they will take a restrained approach to the rest of their offseason, signing more modestly talented free agents to one- and two-year deals.
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The Yankees, according to major-league sources briefed on their thinking, will be far more aggressive.
A rotation without Yamamoto would require at least one more starter, and the Yankees, at least internally, have discussed a reunion with free-agent lefty Jordan Montgomery. The team also could seek to build what one source described as a “super-charged” bullpen. The three top relievers listed by The Athletic’s Tim Britton and Aaron Gleeman in their top 40 free agents — Josh Hader (No. 10), Jordan Hicks (No. 23) and Robert Stephenson (No. 29) remain unsigned.
Even if the Yankees sign Yamamoto, they almost certainly will stay in the market for more pitching, seeking affordable options. Their starters outside of Gerrit Cole last season went a combined 32-46 with a 5.06 ERA.
Carlos Rodón twice went on the injured list in his first season as a Yankee and finished with a 6.85 ERA in 14 starts. Nestor Cortes pitched only once after May 30 due to a strained left rotator cuff, while Clarke Schmidt recorded a 4.64 ERA in 159 innings.
The Yankees traded Michael King in the Juan Soto deal, along with two others who made starts for them last season, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez, and top prospect Drew Thorpe. Luis Severino signed with the Mets. Domingo Germán remains a free agent. Rookie Will Warren is expected to get a long look in spring training, either as a fifth starter or long reliever.
With or without Yamamoto, the Yankees will need to keep going.
Diamondbacks taking familiar route
One problem with signing free agents is that teams do not always know the personalities of the players they’re getting. The Arizona Diamondbacks reduced that risk by investing in two players with whom they are familiar: left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $80 million) and outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (three years, $42 million, pending physical).
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Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen was the Boston Red Sox’s assistant GM when the team acquired Rodriguez from the Orioles for Andrew Miller at the 2014 deadline. Torey Lovullo was the team’s bench coach then and served as interim manager for 48 games in 2015 before he and Hazen left for Arizona after the 2016 season.
The Diamondbacks, of course, have more recent history with Gurriel, whom they acquired from the Blue Jays last offseason along with catcher Gabriel Moreno for outfielder Daulton Varsho. The trade proved a coup for Arizona. Moreno, 23, emerged as a potential star, while Gurriel, 30, hit 24 homers with an OPS+ 8 percent above league average.
Gurriel appealed to the Diamondbacks more than some other free-agent hitters because he could fill their void in left field. The team still would like to add a DH type, and if the money works perhaps they can sign another player Hazen and Lovullo know well: J.D. Martinez, who hit 29 homers in 62 games after the Diamondbacks acquired him for the final two months of the 2017 season.
One other note on the Gurriel Jr. signing: The three-year deal will bring his career earnings to $64 million, edging Yuli Gurriel, his older brother by eight years. Yuli was far more established as an international star when the two defected from Cuba in Feb. 2016. But his earning power was diminished because he did not begin his major-league career until he was 32.
Yuli’s first contract with the Astros was for five years and $47.5 million. Lourdes was a mere prospect when the Jays signed him to a seven-year, $22 million deal.
Ohtani fallout (cont.)
At least for one year, the massive deferrals in Shohei Ohtani’s contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers will lower the amount his salary counts in the calculation of the qualifying offer.
The amount of the qualifying offer is the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball. Ohtani earned $30 million with the Angels last season. For purposes of the QO, his salary in his first year with the Dodgers will be calculated as $28 million, according to sources briefed on the formula.
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The methodology used is based on relevant interest rates and changes each year. The rate that will be applied to the QO calculation next October will be 10 percent. If it falls in subsequent years, Ohtani’s salary in this particular formula will rise, helping push the QO higher.
Even this year, the negative impact of Ohtani’s choice will be minimal. If his salary for QO purposes was $20 million higher, the difference when divided by 125 would be only $160,000 — a sum that likely would not influence a club’s decision to make the offer or a player’s decision to accept.
In any case, for those keeping score, we’re up to three different valuations of Ohtani’s salary in 2024: the one for luxury-tax purposes ($46 million), the one the players’ union uses on the agent website ($43.7 million) and the one for the QO ($28 million).
He’s No. 8! (But only for the moment)
Here’s something that might surprise you: Agent Scott Boras’ biggest current contract, Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal with the Phillies, ranks only eighth in total value.
The top seven guarantees belong to Shohei Ohtani ($700 million), Mike Trout ($426.5 million), Mookie Betts ($365 million), Aaron Judge ($360 million), Manny Machado ($350 million), Francisco Lindor ($341 million) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340 million).
Factor in deferrals and Ohtani’s present-day value ($437.8 million according to the players’ union) is still the highest. Lindor, at $332 million, is just above Harper, Betts at $306.7 million just below.
Free-agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemingly stands a chance of passing Harper as well, not that Boras is suffering. He has negotiated five of the 10 highest average annual values in major-league history, for Max Scherzer ($43.3 million), Gerrit Cole ($36 million), Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35 million) and Anthony Rendon ($35 million).
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And of course, Boras represents Juan Soto, who will hit the open market at 26 next winter and is a good bet to surpass Ohtani for the highest present-day value.
Phillies seeking greater presence in Asia
The Phillies might be a long shot for Yamamoto, but their pursuit of him is symbolic of their heightened attempts to establish a foothold in Asia.
Dave Dombrowski, the Phillies’ president of baseball operations, learned after taking over in Dec. 2020 that the team was short on Asian scouting. Over the past two years, he has expanded the Phillies’ international operation, directing assistant GM Jorge Velandia to focus on Asia in addition to Latin America.
Velandia became more active traveling to Asia. So did many U.S. scouts who work for the team. The Phillies also hired more Asian scouts, and now have two based in Japan, one in Taiwan and one in Korea. Their new international scouting director, Derrick Chung, is Korean-American.
“There’s no question we’ve taken a significant jump,” Dombrowski said. “The play (in Asia) continues to improve. The players continue to improve. You want to make sure you’re as thorough as possible.”
If the Phillies fail to land Yamamoto, they could enter the mix for two other Japanese free-agent pitchers, left-hander Shota Imanaga and righty reliever Shintaro Fujinami, who spent last season with the A’s and Orioles. The team has had only two players from Japan: Tadahito Iguchi in 2007-08 and So Taguchi in ‘08. That number likely will increase in the future.
Which way Astros?
The Astros continue to explore the addition of a free-agent reliever, pondering a reunion with Hector Neris and touching base on Jordan Hicks, according to sources briefed on their discussions.
The team, however, currently is just over the initial $237 million luxury-tax threshold, according to Fangraphs’ calculations. One agent in contact with the Astros says club officials are signaling that money is an issue. Under owner Jim Crane, the team has exceeded the threshold only once.
Trading left-hander Framber Valdez, who is projected to earn $12.1 million in the second of his three years of arbitration, would create flexibility under the threshold. But it remains unclear whether the Astros will pursue such a course.
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(Top photo of Yamamoto: Richard A. Brooks / AFP via Getty Images)
