For weeks, the baseball world has waited impatiently, devouring insider reports and tracking flights, for the top hitter and pitcher in free agency, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to sign. That wait is now over, as both inked record-setting deals with the Dodgers — Ohtani nearly two weeks ago, and Yamamoto reportedly agreeing to a 12-year, $325 million deal Thursday night.
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The 25-year-old Yamamoto, No. 3 on The Athletic’s free agent Big Board, will anchor the Dodgers rotation for years. Meanwhile, the other clubs that pursued the Japanese star pitcher now turn to the other starters still on the market. There are many, though none as coveted as Yamamoto.
In a deep class of free-agent starters, these names from our top-40 Big Board remain available: Blake Snell (No. 5), Jordan Montgomery (6), Marcus Stroman (11), Shota Imanaga (12), Lucas Giolito (15), Clayton Kershaw (26), Mike Clevinger (31), Hyun Jin Ryu (36) and Michael Lorenzen (40). For teams willing to trade youth for a top-of-the-rotation arm, Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes are prime trade candidates.
Below, in alphabetical order, are nine suitors who missed out on Yamamoto and where things stand for them now that Yamamoto is off the board.
Projected rotations as listed by FanGraphs RosterResource.
Atlanta Braves
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, RHP Bryce Elder, RHP Reynaldo López (or RHP AJ Smith-Shawver)
For the longest time, the Braves didn’t feel like an ideal landing spot for Yamamoto. Then they were knocked out of the division series and word got out that the Braves were willing to spend — perhaps an unprecedented amount — on a top-of-the-line starting pitcher. Their offseason maneuvering started with a sort of roster cleansing that seemed to be setting the stage for something. At some point it became worth wondering: could the Braves sneak in here and take the biggest free-agent starter off the market? In the end, no, and we’re still waiting to see if they have something substantial up their sleeves.
Boston Red Sox
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Brayan Bello, LHP Chris Sale, RHP Nick Pivetta, RHP Kutter Crawford, RHP Tanner Houck
Given their glaring need for a front-line starting pitcher and their considerable scouting presence in the Japanese market, there was a time when the Red Sox might have been the overwhelming favorites to sign Yamamoto. He checked almost every box except for one: He did not come cheap. The Red Sox are not the free spenders they used to be, and now the question is whether they can adequately address their rotation without falling back on their recent tendency to settle for second- and third-tier solutions. If the Red Sox don’t sign one of the top remaining starters, like Montgomery or Snell, the prevailing narrative in Boston will be that ownership is no longer committed to fielding the best team possible.
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Chicago Cubs
Projected Opening Day rotation: LHP Justin Steele, RHP Jameson Taillon, RHP Kyle Hendricks, LHP Jordan Wicks, RHP Javier Assad
The Cubs have a couple starting pitching prospects approaching the majors, but they could use some immediate help with Stroman gone. Having now missed out on both Ohtani (who won’t pitch in 2024 anyway) and Yamamoto, the Cubs appear more likely to either sign a middle-of-the-rotation free agent — Imanaga is on their radar — or make a trade. The Cubs had discussions with the Rays regarding Glasnow. The Dodgers ultimately made that deal, but the Cubs’ involvement suggests a willingness to go the trade route to fill their obvious need in the rotation. Because of his age, Yamamoto was a kind of stand-alone option in free agency, and as the Cubs pivot away from him, they might more accurately be pivoting away from Glasnow. As a rival evaluator noted recently, if the Cubs wanted an electric yet often erratic arm, it was better to bet on one year of Glasnow than five or more of Snell. A trade for Shane Bieber or Dylan Cease — or any other trade market starting pitcher with modest remaining team control — might be a more reasonable and worthwhile alternative than any of the remaining high-end free-agent starters.
New York Mets
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Kodai Senga, RHP Luis Severino, LHP José Quintana, RHP Tylor Megill, LHP Joey Lucchesi
Six Mets made at least 16 starts last season, but two were traded (Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer), one became a free agent (Carlos Carrasco), and another had surgery (David Peterson). So, even after signing Luis Severino, the Mets still need arms. Question is, after splurging on payroll in recent years, how much are they looking to spend this winter? If this were last offseason, the Mets might have signed both Yamamoto and Ohtani. This winter, they got neither. Could they wait until next winter to spend lavishly again?
New York Yankees
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Gerrit Cole, LHP Carlos Rodón, RHP Clarke Schmidt, LHP Nestor Cortes, RHP Clayton Beeter (or RHP Luis Gil)
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There’s still time for the Yankees to make their second splash of the offseason. The first, of course, was trading for Juan Soto, and signing Yamamoto would have made for a devastating one-two punch (they saved his favorite uniform number for him last season). But simply being in on Yamamoto suggests the Yankees still have plenty of money to spend, and their rotation hole has only grown bigger. The Yankees gave up most of their young big league starters — Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez — in the Soto deal, so the last spot in their rotation is pretty shaky at the moment. Do they even have a fifth starter right now? One way or another, they’ll surely change that before pitchers and catchers report to spring training.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Zack Wheeler, RHP Aaron Nola, LHP Ranger Suarez, RHP Taijuan Walker, LHP Cristopher Sánchez
The Phillies already signed the most reliable, high-end starting pitcher on the free agent market, but while a $172 million deal with Nola was a massive splash, it was not a transformative addition. Nola spent the past nine years in the Phillies rotation, and bringing him back was more maintenance than improvement. Yamamoto would have been a real upgrade on par with last winter’s signing of Trea Turner. Even without Yamamoto, the Phillies still look like legitimate contenders. They were a win away from advancing to the World Series last year, their roster is largely unchanged, and there are still viable rotation upgrades available via trade and free agency. The fact they were in the Yamamoto bidding suggests they’re not only committed to another World Series run, but perhaps already thinking ahead to Wheeler’s pending free agency a year from now.
San Francisco Giants
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Logan Webb, LHP Kyle Harrison, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, RHP Ross Stripling, RHP Keaton Winn
The Giants reached a point last season where they had basically 2 1/2 starters, rotating between a Cy Young candidate (Webb), a veteran (Alex Cobb) and a rookie (Harrison). Then Cobb, 36, had offseason hip surgery — he’s expected to miss the start of the season — and Sean Manaea opted out of his contract. Given the young starters they have coming along, the Giants could be in decent shape if DeSclafani is healthy and if Stripling pitches the way he did in the second half of the 2023 season. Yet the Giants need depth and, after missing on one star after another in recent free agencies, you’d think they’ll take a big swing sometime. Maybe that’s Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, who could put up some ridiculous numbers pitching in San Francisco. Or maybe it’s a mid-tier starter, like Stroman, to pair with a bigger position-player signing, like Cody Bellinger.
Seattle Mariners
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Luis Castillo, RHP Logan Gilbert, RHP George Kirby, RHP Bryce Miller, RHP Bryan Woo
The Mariners did not need Yamamoto. They certainly could have used him. But they did not need him. Seattle’s inclusion in this list of Yamamoto suitors is due mostly to the fact that, with all of their transactions so far this offseason, they presumably are positioning themselves to make some sort of major move. That could be flawed logic. They also could do absolutely nothing. They could also just go get a couple bats, as they have said they would. Sticking Yamamoto in this rotation, though, and in a very pitcher-friendly ballpark was a fun idea. Instead, with Emerson Hancock ready for more run and with Robbie Ray likely returning from Tommy John some time this season, the Mariners’ savings (however much they’re ready to spend) will likely go into the lineup.
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Toronto Blue Jays
Projected Opening Day rotation: RHP Kevin Gausman, RHP José Berríos, RHP Chris Bassitt, LHP Yusei Kikuchi, RHP Alek Manoah
The Blue Jays were never considered favorites to sign Yamamoto, but after being runners-up for Ohtani landing the best pitcher on the market would have been comforting for Jays fans. Toronto is still fine on the starting pitching front. For 2024, they have four strong starters, a wild card (Manoah) and a top prospect (Ricky Tiedemann). They could add depth, but they’ll be all right, either way. For 2025, they’ll have a rotation that has a top three of Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt, and by then Tiedemann could be taking off, too. Manoah is the obvious question mark moving forward. Still, the Blue Jays rotation is set up pretty well for now. As for the lineup, without Ohtani, you wonder if the Jays decide to reunite with Matt Chapman, one of the best position players still on the board. Jeimer Candelario has signed elsewhere, so the only coveted third-base option is Chapman. Whether the Jays are willing to spend what it’ll take to bring Chapman back — The Athletic’s Tim Britton projected a five-year, $95 million deal, though the lack of other options in the free agent market could drive that higher — remains to be seen.
(The Athletic illustration: Sean Reilly; Photos: Yuki Taguchi / WBCI / MLB Photos via Getty Images