To EPA, or not to EPA with Lamar Jackson. That is the question.
The answer? Both.
The Baltimore Ravens quarterback will likely win the 2023 NFL MVP award because of a few elite EPA (Expected Points Added, via TruMedia) single-game rates, and in spite of a good, but not great, overall rate.
And which QBs are surging toward the end of the regular season?
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Here’s my weekly look at how quarterbacks stand using traditional statistics like passer rating, along with advanced metrics like EPA per dropback, to provide a number-based outlook of the state of the position. Quarterbacks are listed by EPA per dropback. The parameter for being included in the overall rankings is a minimum of 160 dropbacks this season.
I’ll also give a sneak peek at the upcoming matchups using EPA per dropback for the quarterbacks and the defenses they will face in Week 18.
But first, let’s dive into the 2023 rates for the soon-to-be two-time NFL MVP.
Going into Week 18, Jackson ranks 14th in overall EPA rate at 0.07 and fifth in passer rating at 102.7. Again, Jackson’s EPA rate points to a good season, while his passer rating is closer to top-notch. For perspective, Jackson posted a 0.34 EPA rate (eighth highest since 2000) and a 113.3 passer rating during his 2019 MVP season.
But where Jackson made headway — both for his EPA rate and in the MVP race — occurred in the last month. Jackson ranks second in EPA rate (0.27) and passer rating (114.5) over the last four weeks. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield ranks higher in both categories (0.28 EPA, 115.3 passer rating). It doesn’t hurt that both quarterbacks yielded a perfect 158.3 passer rating during a game in that span.
But what also shouldn’t be ignored is that Jackson produced two of the top five single-game EPA outings of this season, including the No. 1 performance (among 522 qualified quarterback appearances). More impressive is that Jackson played those two games against the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions, both of whom are already locked into the postseason.
Below is a glimpse at the top 15 single-game EPA performances through Week 17:
Top single-game EPA per dropback (2023)
| player | wk-opp | EPA/DB | Total EPA | Psr Rt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17 - Dolphins | 1.08 (1) | 25.7 (2) | 158.3 (1) | |
4 - Cardinals | 1.01 (2) | 25.6 (3) | 134.6 (21) | |
3 - Broncos | 0.95 (3) | 24.7 (4) | 155.8 (6) | |
13 - Eagles | 0.73 (4) | 21.8 (7) | 148.8 (8) | |
7 - Lions | 0.73 (5) | 22.4 (5) | 155.8 (5) | |
15 - Cardinals | 0.71 (6) | 17.1 (21) | 135.3 (18) | |
4 - Dolphins | 0.67 (7) | 21.0 (11) | 158.3 (1) | |
5 - Cowboys | 0.66 (8) | 16.4 (26) | 144.4 (10) | |
15 - Packers | 0.64 (9) | 19.3 (12) | 158.3 (1) | |
13 - Commanders | 0.61 (10) | 14.7 (36) | 141.0 (14) | |
9 - Buccaneers | 0.60 (11) | 26.3 (1) | 147.8 (9) | |
1 - Chargers | 0.60 (12) | 19.1 (14) | 110.0 (109) | |
3 - Bears | 0.59 (13) | 21.1 (10) | 127.3 (31) | |
10 - Giants | 0.58 (14) | 21.3 (9) | 138.3 (15) | |
8 - Commanders | 0.57 (15) | 17.0 (23) | 135.7 (17) |
It’s hard to miss how often the San Francisco 49ers’ Brock Purdy pops up near the top of the list. Purdy has chalked up seven of the top 30 single-game EPA rates of the season.
The next time you’ll find Jackson on this list after No. 5? Number 101.
Here’s a glimpse at Jackson’s weekly rates listed in order of EPA. (The green indicates wins. The pink indicates losses.)
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Jackson’s week-by-week EPA per dropback
| week | opp | EPA/DB | Total EPA | Psr Rt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
17 | 1.08 (1) | 25.7 (2) | 158.3 (1) | |
7 | 0.73 (5) | 22.4 (5) | 155.8 (5) | |
2 | 0.26 (101) | 10.2 (83) | 112.8 (93) | |
14 | 0.26 (103) | 9.9 (86) | 92.8 (226) | |
4 | 0.25 (105) | 3.2 (188) | 142.5 (12) | |
11 | 0.24 (114) | 8.6 (108) | 121.3 (54) | |
6 | 0.08 (203) | 3.4 (183) | 88.6 (254) | |
16 | 0.07 (212) | 1.3 (219) | 105.9 (139) | |
12 | -0.11 (338) | -4.2 (348) | 82.4 (308) | |
15 | -0.11 (342) | -1.8 (293) | 76.9 (354) | |
1 | -0.15 (370) | -4.1 (343) | 79.5 (330) | |
9 | -0.21 (402) | -4.1 (344) | 96.6 (202) | |
3 | -0.24 (417) | -6.2 (379) | 88.4 (260) | |
8 | -0.24 (418) | -8.1 (406) | 94.2 (213) | |
10 | -0.24 (419) | -7.8 (399) | 67.8 (417) | |
5 | -0.31 (448) | -12.8 (462) | 65.2 (435) |
Remarkably, Baltimore went 5-3 when Jackson amassed a -0.11 EPA rate or worse. Leaguewide, teams went a combined 47-143 when their quarterback yielded a -0.11 EPA rate this season.
Now I’ll dive into the rest of the league. Below charts the QBs’ overall and Weeks 14-17 rates:
Nos. 1-10
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Wk 14-17 | Psr Rt ovr | Wk 14-17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.26 (1) | 0.14 (8) | 113.0 (1) | 103.8 (7) | |
0.16 (2) | 0.02 (16) | 104.2 (2) | 92.5 (13) | |
0.15 (3) | 0.03 (15) | 103.0 (4) | 94.1 (10) | |
0.13 (4) | -0.02 (20) | 91.5 (17) | 74.3 (29) | |
0.11 (5) | 0.19 (4) | 93.8 (12) | 104.5 (6) | |
0.11 (6) | 0.15 (7) | 92.5 (15) | 106.5 (4) | |
0.10 (7) | 0.10 (10) | 91.0 (18) | 81.5 (23) | |
0.10 (8) | 0.07 (12) | 96.5 (8) | 90.5 (16) | |
0.10 (9) | 0.16 (6) | 96.4 (9) | 91.4 (14) | |
0.09 (10) | -0.23 (NR) | 99.0 (6) | 82.7 (NR) |
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Josh Allen in Week 18 may come down to which quarterback rebounds best.
The Miami Dolphins’ passer looked strong in Week 15 and 16 wins over the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys, respectively. He took a hit against the Ravens last week with a -0.09 EPA rate and 71.9 passer rating. And you could understand Allen yielding a low number in Week 15 against the Cowboys when James Cook ran all over the place. But the Buffalo Bills’ QB yielded his worst passer rating and second-worst EPA rate this season in the Week 17 win against the New England Patriots.
The conversation has certainly changed around the Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love since the start of the season. Now he’ll be a bargain heading into next season. He’s tallied an EPA rate of at least 0.26 in five of the last seven games and a passer rating north of 108.0 in six of the last seven games.
Matthew Stafford saw his hot streak come to an end in Week 17. The Los Angeles Rams quarterback tallied a -0.11 EPA rate and 85.0 passer rating in the win over the New York Giants. Stafford had compiled a 0.24 EPA rate and 114.2 passer rating in the previous five games.
Nos. 11-20
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Wk 14-17 | Psr Rt ovr | Wk 14-17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
0.08 (11) | 0.28 (1) | 95.9 (10) | 115.3 (1) | |
0.07 (12) | -0.08 (24) | 92.6 (14) | 85.3 (21) | |
0.07 (13) | -0.83 (NR) | 93.2 (13) | 45.2 (NR) | |
0.07 (14) | 0.27 (2) | 102.7 (5) | 114.5 (2) | |
0.06 (15) | IR | 103.8 (3) | IR | |
0.05 (16) | 0.23 (3) | 91.6 (16) | 105.8 (5) | |
0.02 (17) | 0.11 (9) | 94.7 (11) | 111.0 (3) | |
-0.00 (18) | 0.05 (13) | 85.3 (26) | 89.4 (18) | |
-0.03 (19) | IR | 91.0 (19) | IR | |
-0.03 (20) | -0.03 (21) | 84.2 (28) | 77.2 (26) |
Mayfield also cooled off a touch during the Bucs’ Week 17 loss to the New Orleans Saints, but still managed a 0.10 EPA rate and 91.6 passer rating.
Drew Lock kept the seat warm for Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks’ starter chalked up consecutive solid outings after returning from injury — though the team’s playoff life is tenuous heading into Week 18.
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And give credit where credit is due with the Saints’ Derek Carr. From Weeks 15-17, Carr amassed a 0.21 EPA rate and 116.8 passer rating. Week 16 was deceptive though with good rates in the second half against the Rams after L.A. took a big lead in the first half.
Nos. 21-30
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Wk 14-17 | Psr Rt ovr | Wk 14-17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.04 (21) | -0.14 (27) | 89.1 (21) | 71.5 (31) | |
-0.04 (22) | 0.03 (14) | 87.2 (23) | 80.3 (24) | |
-0.05 (23) | NA | 78.1 (34) | NA | |
-0.05 (24) | -0.08 (25) | 98.0 (7) | 94.6 (8) | |
-0.05 (25) | 0.01 (17) | 85.8 (25) | 74.9 (28) | |
-0.07 (26) | -0.01 (19) | 86.8 (24) | 92.9 (12) | |
-0.07 (27) | -0.06 (23) | 90.2 (20) | 94.3 (9) | |
-0.08 (28) | -0.14 (28) | 81.3 (30) | 87.9 (19) | |
-0.08 (29) | -0.43 (NR) | 79.5 (33) | 50.8 (NR) | |
-0.09 (30) | -0.03 (22) | 81.1 (31) | 79.9 (25) |
It’s hard to count on Trevor Lawrence these days given his health and recent struggles. The Jacksonville Jaguars will obviously play Lawrence in Week 18 if he’s healthy, but he hasn’t won a start since Week 12 against the Houston Texans.
I’ve documented all season how Russell Wilson’s passer rating look better than his on-field performance would indicate. Regardless of what you think of Sean Payton’s decision to bench the Denver Broncos quarterback, I figured the way Wilson worked within the Payton offense wouldn’t be enough to satisfy Payton.
Words I never thought I’d type: The Cleveland Browns will sit Joe Flacco in Week 18 to rest him ahead of the team’s playoff game during wild-card weekend. Bizarro world squared.
Nos. 31-40
| player | EPA/DB ovr | Wk 14-17 | Psr Rt ovr | Wk 14-17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
-0.10 (31) | -0.05 (NR) | 76.6 (38) | 92.7 (NR) | |
-0.12 (32) | -0.50 (34) | 79.5 (32) | 38.7 (34) | |
-0.15 (33) | NA | 81.4 (29) | NA | |
-0.16 (34) | IR | 84.3 (27) | IR | |
-0.18 (35) | NA | 77.0 (36) | NA | |
-0.20 (36) | -0.23 (31) | 73.7 (39) | 75.3 (27) | |
-0.23 (37) | IR | 70.5 (40) | IR | |
-0.23 (38) | -0.22 (30) | 88.9 (22) | 83.7 (22) | |
-0.23 (39) | -0.23 (NR) | 77.2 (35) | 100.2 (NR) | |
-0.26 (40) | -0.21 (29) | 76.8 (37) | 91.2 (15) |
Kenny Pickett’s name has lingered around the bottom of the EPA ranking just about all season. Mason Rudolph becoming the starter after posting a 0.36 EPA rate and 118.4 passer rating in the past two weeks makes total sense. Now, who will be the starting quarterback in 2024? That will be quite the quandary for Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Sam Howell experience figures to end for the Washington Commanders come Sunday evening. So too will the Mac Jones–Bailey Zappe debacle with the New England Patriots. And Bryce Young can’t have his rookie season end fast enough with the Carolina Panthers.
Week 18 defense vs. QB EPA matchups
| Team | Def EPA/DB | Opp qb | Epa/db |
|---|---|---|---|
0.22 (1) | Jake Browning | 0.10 (8) | |
0.14 (2) | Mason Rudolph | 0.29 (NR) | |
0.10 (3) | Bailey Zappe | -0.26 (40) | |
0.09 (4) | Easton Stick | -0.09 (NR) | |
0.07 (5) | Carson Wentz | NA | |
0.06 (6) | Tua Tagovailoa | 0.15 (3) | |
0.04 (7) | Ryan Tannehill* | -0.10 (31) | |
0.03 (8) | Sam Howell* | -0.12 (32) | |
0.02 (9) | Tyler Huntley | 0.84 (NR) | |
0.01 (10) | Trevor Siemian | -0.29 (NR) | |
0.01 (11) | Taylor Heinicke | 0.05 (NR) | |
0.00 (12) | Josh Allen | 0.13 (4) | |
-0.00 (13) | Jarrett Stidham | 0.06 (NR) | |
-0.01 (14) | Jared Goff | 0.10 (9) | |
-0.01 (15) | Jalen Hurts | 0.10 (7) | |
-0.02 (16) | C.J. Stroud | 0.09 (10) | |
-0.02 (17) | Baker Mayfield | 0.08 (11) | |
-0.02 (18) | Jordan Love | 0.11 (5) | |
-0.03 (19) | Derek Carr | 0.02 (17) | |
-0.05 (20) | Gardner Minshew | -0.00 (18) | |
-0.05 (21) | Sam Darnold | -0.04 | |
-0.07 (22) | Justin Fields | -0.05 (25) | |
-0.07 (23) | Aidan O'Connell | -0.08 (28) | |
-0.08 (24) | Jeff Driskel | NA | |
-0.09 (25) | Bryce Young | -0.20 (36) | |
-0.09 (26) | Kyler Murray | -0.07 (26) | |
-0.10 (27) | Tyrod Taylor | -0.04 (22) | |
-0.10 (28) | Nick Mullens | 0.16 (NR) | |
-0.11 (29) | Blaine Gabbert | NA | |
-0.11 (30) | Trevor Lawrence* | -0.04 (21) | |
-0.17 (31) | Dak Prescott | 0.16 (2) | |
-0.19 (32) | Geno Smith | 0.05 (16) |
*Starting uncertainty in Week 18 because of injury, rest, etc.
(Photo of Lamar Jackson: Mitch Stringer / USA TODAY Sports)
