For just the third time in his 30 years of ownership, Robert Kraft is looking for a new head coach. The New England Patriots and Bill Belichick have mutually agreed to part ways, ending his 24-season run with the team.
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Kraft has been proud of the fact the only two coaches he’s ever hired (Pete Carroll and Belichick) both had a great deal of success in the NFL. He believes in his ability to identify good leaders for his football team.
Now a big decision looms. Whom will Kraft pick for the tough task of following the most successful head coach in NFL history? Here’s a look at the options.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 11, 2024
The front-runners
Jerod Mayo
Given how highly Robert and Jonathan Kraft think of Mayo, the 37-year-old has to be the front-runner for this job. Mayo has made clear his goal of one day becoming an NFL head coach. Yet a conversation with Kraft last year led to Mayo withdrawing his candidacy for the Carolina Panthers’ top job.
It’s unlikely Kraft promised the Patriots’ job to Mayo back then, but the owner did make clear just how much he likes Mayo.
“I think there is no ceiling on his ability to grow and how competent he is,” Kraft said in March. “I was happy we were able to sit with him and keep him long term. I’m going to do everything I can to make that happen.”
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Mayo could be the perfect choice for a few reasons. First, if the franchise is looking to maintain a strong relationship with Belichick, Mayo could help with that goal. As a player, teammates used to jokingly call him Belichick’s other son because of how close the two were. Mayo, who was the highest draft pick of the Belichick era (No. 10 in 2008), learned the game from the legendary coach. He would likely keep in place a lot of what the Krafts liked about Belichick.
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But where Belichick and Mayo differ is important, too. Mayo is a people person. He gets along really well with players. He could be the next in a trend of young, former players finding success as head coaches.
Mike Vrabel
Eyebrows were raised around the league when Vrabel, then the Tennessee Titans’ coach, spent his team’s bye week this fall next to Kraft in the owner’s suite for a Patriots game while in town for his induction into the franchise’s Hall of Fame. And now, thanks to his somewhat surprising firing on Tuesday, Vrabel is available.
Kraft has a ton of respect for Vrabel. He was a standout player for the Pats who won three Super Bowls in New England. Vrabel got into coaching after he retired from playing, starting at his alma mater of Ohio State before working his way up to defensive coordinator with the Houston Texans and earning the top gig with the Titans. He posted a 54-45 regular-season record and a 2-3 playoff record with the Titans since 2018.
There was thought that Vrabel might be an option for the Patriots even if he was still under contract with the Titans and would require a draft pick in return. But now that he’s eligible to sign with any team he wants, Vrabel immediately becomes one of the two likeliest candidates for this job. Back in New England for his Hall of Fame ceremony, Vrabel spoke glowingly about the Patriots organization and fan base.
“I want you not to take this organization for granted,” he told the fans at Gillette Stadium. “I’ve been a lot of places. This is a special place with great leadership, great fans, great direction, great coaching.”
Possible candidates
Bill O’Brien
This one might seem a bit surprising considering O’Brien has been the Patriots offensive coordinator this season as the team had its worst offensive showing in decades. They finished the season ranked tied for last in points scored and 30th in yards. It was a disaster across the board.
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But O’Brien, 54, remains close with the Krafts. Before their penultimate game in Buffalo this season, O’Brien chatted with Kraft on the field. The team brass has faith in him as a coach.
O’Brien went 52-48 in his seven years as the Texans’ head coach, the best career record of anyone in Belichick’s direct coaching tree. But the results haven’t been quite as good since then. He spent two years as the offensive coordinator at Alabama, when it didn’t reach the success to which it’s accustomed, then one miserable season back in New England.
But his work as a head coach with the Texans was impressive, and it was more his player personnel decisions that led to the team unraveling. So if the Krafts paired him with a general manager who took control of the roster, perhaps they could talk themselves into O’Brien.
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Brian Flores
The work Flores has done with the Minnesota Vikings defense this season has been incredible, and his roster on that side of the ball isn’t good. But Flores has designed a maximum/minimum defense that frequently either sends an all-out blitz or drops eight into coverage, and it has been immensely successful. He’s innovative, young (42), has 15 years of experience in New England and has head-coaching experience, posting a 24-25 record over three years with the Miami Dolphins.
But there are two potential drawbacks. The first is Flores has an open lawsuit against the NFL that involves text messages from Belichick, a message that has soured their relationship. If the Krafts want to maintain a good relationship with Belichick, handing the reins to Flores might not help that cause.
The second potential issue is that part of Flores’ undoing with the Dolphins (in addition to alleging that he ignored owner Stephen Ross’ directives to tank) was his handling of young quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If the Patriots are going to rebuild with a new, young quarterback, they’ll likely want answers from Flores about what happened with Tagovailoa.
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Less likely candidates
Josh McDaniels
Two things can be true: The Krafts really liked working with McDaniels and thought highly of him, and his track record as a head coach probably disqualifies him from a third shot at that job. He was immensely successful with the Patriots, won six Super Bowls and turned rookie Mac Jones into a Pro Bowl quarterback.
But McDaniels, 47, was 11-17 in a disastrous stint coaching the Denver Broncos, then 9-16 in another short gig with the Las Vegas Raiders. He might get an interview because of his relationship with the Krafts, even if he’d probably be better suited as, say, Mayo’s offensive coordinator.
Patrick Graham
The 44-year-old was a Patriots assistant coach from 2009 to 2015 under Belichick. Since then, his work as a defensive coordinator has made him a legitimate candidate for head-coaching jobs (he was one of three finalists for the Vikings’ top job two years ago). His Raiders defense ranked ninth in points allowed this season and became one of the league’s best units in the second half of the season.
But he’s in the less likely candidates section for a reason. If you’re going to pivot to a young coach with a defensive background without head-coaching experience who learned from Belichick, why not just hire Mayo?
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Shane Waldron
After a collegiate career as a tight end at Tufts, Waldron started his NFL career as an intern with the Patriots in 2002. He worked his way up, becoming the team’s tight ends coach in 2009 before leaving for a job in the United Football League.
Waldron, 44, has been the Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator since 2021 and helped spark Geno Smith’s resurgence. Before that, he spent five years working under Sean McVay in Washington and Los Angeles.
Ben Johnson
Johnson, the Detroit Lions’ 37-year-old offensive coordinator, might be the hottest candidate this cycle. He has helped rejuvenate quarterback Jared Goff with an innovative offense that helped the Lions rank fifth in scoring while winning their division for the first time in 30 years.
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All of these remaining names would be a surprise if chosen by the Krafts, but Johnson would be a fine option if the goal was to completely move on from anyone with Belichick ties and try to find the next young, bright offensive coach.
Bobby Slowik
This hire would be similar to Johnson. Slowik, 36, has been an offensive coordinator for only one year, but he’s a disciple of Kyle Shanahan, whose offensive scheme has become the most successful in the league. In his first year running the Texans offense, Slowik helped No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud put together an impressive rookie season. If the goal is to find a quarterback-friendly coach for a high draft pick, Slowik could be an option. The Commanders and Panthers have already submitted requests to interview Slowik for their opening.
Jim Harbaugh
OK, now we’re getting to the really unlikely options. It’s hard to envision the Krafts moving on from Belichick, who became such a siloed decision-maker, to Harbaugh, who has a similar track record. But Harbaugh also has a track record of winning. He went 44-19-1 in his four seasons with the 49ers, then went back to the college ranks and helped take Michigan to the College Football Playoff in three straight years, winning the national championship this season.
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(Photo of Jerod Mayo: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
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