The Los Angeles Chargers wrap up their season Sunday when they host the Kansas City Chiefs at SoFi Stadium.
You ask. I answer.
It’s the mailbag.
Assuming they go the total reset route, what 10 players aside from Justin Herbert and Rashawn Slater are you building around as your base? — @Gengler38
The first task for the Chargers’ new regime — general manager and head coach — will be navigating what is a messy salary cap situation. As it stands, the Chargers have 37 players under contract for 2024, and they are already $34.69 million over the projected cap, according to Over the Cap. They are in this position because of the moves Tom Telesco and Brandon Staley made last offseason. The Chargers restructured the contracts of edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack and receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, pushing considerable cap charges into 2024. Those four players are accounting for $142.3 million in 2024 space, according to Over the Cap. The projected cap is $242 million.
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Those cap hits are untenable, and the new regime must make tough decisions on how to move forward. The Chargers do not necessarily have to cut or trade all four players. Those are merely two avenues for creating space. There are other options. Mack, Allen and Williams will all be entering the final year of their contracts in 2024. The Chargers could extend any of those players to create space in 2024. Mack and Allen are both coming off excellent seasons. At the same time, age must be a consideration. Mack will turn 33 in February. Allen will turn 32 in April. Williams will turn 30 in October and is coming off a torn ACL. A cardinal sin of team-building is paying for past production instead of future production.
Bosa still has two years remaining on his deal, so an extension is not really a viable option, especially considering he will finish 2023 having played in just 14 of a possible 34 regular season games over the past two years. (Bosa, who suffered a foot sprain in Week 11, is unlikely to return from IR this season, according to interim coach Giff Smith.)
Moving on from Mack, Bosa, Allen and Williams would amount to the “total reset” our question-asker references. In this scenario, the Chargers would have to incur a significant amount of dead money on their cap in 2024. That would make it more difficult to build a contending roster. However, the new GM and head coach would then create considerably more cap flexibility in 2025, and they would have a real opportunity to rebuild the roster in their image in Year 2.
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Operating within this premise is an interesting exercise because it forces a sober look at what the Chargers have elsewhere on the roster. They have a franchise quarterback on a long-term deal in Herbert. They have a franchise left tackle on a rookie deal in Slater. (Slater will be extension-eligible after this season, so something to keep in mind.) Beyond those two cornerstones, what other players would the new regime have to build around?
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Some of this process will be based on evaluations from the new GM and head coach. Some of it will be dictated by contract situations.
Our question-asker suggested 10 players, so I will stick to that number.
1. S Derwin James Jr.: James signed a top-of-the-market extension during training camp in 2022. While the new regime could conceivably move on from James, either by trade or release, it makes way more sense financially and football-wise to keep him on the roster for 2024. James has a lot to offer as a player, and a good coaching staff will find a way to get the most out of him.
2. Edge Tuli Tuipulotu: Tuipulotu might be the most attractive piece on the roster behind Herbert and Slater. A quality all-around edge defender on a rookie deal.
3. WR Joshua Palmer: Palmer has one year left on his rookie deal and is slated for a $1.6 million cap hit in 2024, according to Over theC ap. He is just a solid player. Good route runner. Good hands. Good blocker. He provides value at that cap number.
4. CB Asante Samuel Jr.: Samuel has one year left on his rookie deal, and he is slated for a $2.3 million cap hit in 2024. He is a boom-or-bust player, but there will always be a place on the roster for a defensive back who can get the football. Samuel has 35 passes defended and six interceptions in his first three seasons. I do not see Samuel as a No. 1 corner, and that will be a hole the next regime must fill. With his aggressive play style, I think he fits better in a roster as a No. 2 corner.
5. OG Zion Johnson: Johnson will have two years remaining on his rookie deal. As a former first-round pick, he will have a $4.02 million cap hit in 2024, according to Over the Cap. Johnson has all the tools to be a great player, but he has not yet lived up to his draft slot. There is no viable financial out in his contract.
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6. OT Trey Pipkins III: Pipkins took a step back this season after the Chargers signed him to a three-year extension last offseason. That extension will keep him on the roster in 2024. The out in the contract is in 2025.
7. WR Quentin Johnston: Johnston will finish his rookie season on Sunday. Moving on from a first-round pick after one year is not really financially feasible.
8. LB Daiyan Henley: Henley has filled mostly a special teams role this season, but he has an intriguing skill set as a three-down linebacker, especially with his violent play style and sideline-to-sideline speed.
9. K Cameron Dicker: It is clear the Chargers found a franchise kicker, and he should, if possible, fill that role in Los Angeles for the rest of his career.
10. WR/KR/PR Derius Davis: A difference-maker at returner who has room to grow as a gadget piece on offense in the right system.
On a scale from 1-10, how attractive do you think the Chargers job actually is? — @rcastillon29
I think the Chargers’ head-coaching job is attractive. But probably not as attractive as the consensus seems to be in NFL media. Let’s say 1 is “this job will end your NFL career in one season” and 10 is “you will win a Super Bowl in 2024.” I think the Chargers are a 7.5. Herbert is the driving force behind the attractiveness of the job. The most important position on the team is already figured out. Herbert is under contract through 2029. And that quarterback stability means the turnaround, in theory, should move more quickly. Still, as I alluded to above, there is a lot of work to do with this roster to turn it into a Super Bowl contender, and given the salary cap situation, that work will likely have to wait until 2025. The idea that this roster is ready-made is misguided. It lacks depth. Decisions must be made about some of the stars. I think 2024 will very much be a re-tooling year as the Chargers try to reset their cap situation, and that affects the attractiveness rating.
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How would you rate the rookie performances this year? — @alex_lima_13
The Chargers’ 2023 draft class has been up and down. Johnston was a developmental pick when the Chargers took him in the first round. Even with that in mind, his season has been a disappointment.
Johnston is one of nine receivers with at least 400 routes run this season to be averaging less than a yard per route run, according to TruMedia. His hands have been an issue. He has, at times, struggled to get lined up and grasp the offense. His route-running is unpolished.
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I don’t put this season solely on Johnston. He did not ask the Chargers to draft him in the first round. I also don’t think the Chargers ever really utilized him in the way they discussed after the draft. They spoke highly of his yards-after-the-catch ability. I thought we would see way more crossing routes, slants, digs and jet sweeps as opposed to gos and posts. Johnston was forced into a much bigger role than he was ready for because of injuries to Williams, Palmer and now Allen. In order for him to become a productive player, he has to markedly improve his route-running this offseason. He lacks deception in all parts of his routes, from his releases to his breaks, and that has allowed opposing defensive backs to play extremely tight coverage on him. Even when Johnston is making catches, they are in tight windows through contract.
Tuipuilotu was playing at an elite level early in the season. He has tapered off a bit. Losing Bosa to the foot sprain when the Chargers did played a role in that. Tuipulotu ranked third among rookies with a 13.5 percent pressure rate through Week 12. Since that point, his pressure rate has dropped to 8.8 percent. Still, Tuipulotu is a building block. He has shown he can be a game-breaking edge rusher as a run defender and pass rusher. And he has so much room to grow at just 21 years old.
Henley has only played 38 defensive snaps this season, so it is hard to evaluate that part of his game. But he has been a consistent contributor as a special teams player. Davis leads the NFL in punt return average. Fifth-round pick Jordan McFadden made his first start in Week 17 against the Denver Broncos at left guard and played well. He did not allow a pressure in 39 pass-blocking snaps, according to TruMedia. And I thought he showed a good mix of physicality, athleticism and savvy as a run blocker, especially on some of the keepers from quarterback Easton Stick.
What went wrong with the offensive line this year? — @Arc_of_Darkness
The Chargers thought their offensive line was going to be the strength of the team this year, and that did not materialize for several reasons.
To start, the Chargers lost center Corey Linsley after Week 3, and that significantly impacted the group’s play, particularly in the run game. The Chargers enter Week 18 ranked 31st in rushing success rate, according to TruMedia. That phase just never clicked. It’s important to note that the running game does not fall entirely on the offensive line. The Chargers tight ends have not blocked well at all. The injuries at receiver have impacted the blocking, as well. And they have not gotten consistently solid play from their running backs, starting with Austin Ekeler. Linsley, though, was the engine for the run game, and his loss was felt there.
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In terms of pass protection, the Chargers offensive line has actually been pretty decent on a snap-to-snap basis. They enter Week 18 ranked 11th in pressure rate allowed, according to TruMedia. The issues in pass protection have been situational. On third down and fourth down, the Chargers rank 24th in pressure rate allowed. Against the blitz, the Chargers rank 19th in pressure rate allowed. Losing Linsley also affected how the Chargers dealt with opposing defense’s pressure packages. It is fair to put some of this blame on offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who is ultimately in charge of the protection plan.
Finally, I think we just saw some regression and uneven play from players across the line, absent of Linsley’s injury. Slater dealt with some injuries early in the season that affected his play, though he’s been better in the second half of the season. Johnson is prone to quick losses in pass protection. Jamaree Salyer’s move inside to guard has not been as smooth as I thought it would be. Pipkins has not been the same player he was last season.
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The Chargers struggled with handling stunts from opposing defensive fronts all season, and some of that can be attributed to the moving pieces up front. Johnson switched from right guard to left guard. Salyer was in a new position. And then they lost Linsley. Developing that cohesion in passing off blocks, both against stunts and in the run game, was a process this whole season.
With the new coaching staff, are there any members of the current staff you think will be retained? — @cvu24071
I think it would be a grave error for the new coach to not retain special teams coordinator Ryan Ficken. The Chargers finished 2021 ranked 28th in special teams DVOA, according to FTNFantasy. They replaced special teams coordinator Derius Swinton II with Ficken that offseason. In 2022, the Chargers finished sixth in special teams DVOA. This season, they enter Week 18 ranked third in special teams DVOA. The turnaround has been remarkable, and so much of the credit goes to Ficken and assistant special teams coach Chris Gould. Ficken has earned a spot on the next coaching staff. I do not know if he will be retained. But he should be.
(Top photo: Brian Rothmuller / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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