Welcome to Extension Week 2024!
Over the next five days, I’ll look at roughly 50 players to examine what a contract extension could look like for each. Here’s how I go about this: I’ve got a big Excel spreadsheet with about 900 free-agent and extension contracts in it, as well as players’ performance in the years leading up to those contracts, as defined by FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. Whereas players get paid off home runs and saves in arbitration, I’ve found fWAR to be a solid (though not all-knowing) predictor of earnings on the open market.
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I plug extension candidates into the spreadsheet, find players with similar levels of production ideally with similar amounts of team control left before they signed their deals, and work off of those comps.
A few overall points worth remembering:
• For extensions, the team control part of this is important. If Player A looks just like Player B, except Player A has three years of arbitration ahead of him and Player B was a free agent, Player A isn’t going to get the contract Player B did. However, what Player B made in free agency is still useful as a guide to what the later part of Player A’s contract can look like.
• For starting pitchers and position players, I look at fWAR in one-, three- and five-year samples, with a special emphasis on the shorter term. For extensions in particular, the five-year sample is less helpful because a lot of players haven’t been playing for five full years.
• For relievers, I look at one- and two-year samples. What happened five years ago isn’t really relevant for such a volatile position, and I’ve found more of a recency bias in contracts here than elsewhere.
• This is an exercise in player valuation, not commentary on the likelihood of an extension being signed or whether I think a team or player should sign an extension at the value I suggest. I find doing this helpful even when an extension is unlikely because it helps me understand what the market may be once a player reaches free agency or to see how the player’s value has changed over time.
Today, we’re looking at the easiest and, in general, unlikeliest extension candidates: players who are slated to hit free agency after the 2024 season. Two players I analyzed last year in this space signed extensions rather than hit free agency.
Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
6 years, $100M | 3 years, $61M | |
3 years, $45M | 2 years, $40M |
In both cases, they went for fewer years and a higher average annual value than I projected. The shorter-term deal for Ian Happ, in particular, was surprising for a player at his age but made some sense for both sides.
I also projected extensions for seven other players who hit the open market this past winter. Let’s compare my projections of their free-agent valuations — so the projected extension minus their 2023 salary — versus what they actually received in free agency.
Player | Projected | Received |
|---|---|---|
7 years, $184M | 7 years, $172M | |
5 years, $114M | 3 years, $54M | |
5 years, $94M | 5 years, $95M | |
4 years, $72M | 1 year, $23M | |
5 years, $80M | 1 year, $10.5M | |
3 years, $55M | 1 year, $13M | |
3 years, $48M | 2 years, $34M |
Aaron Nola and Josh Hader look close to on the mark. Rhys Hoskins’ value diminished barely despite missing the whole season. Matt Chapman’s value plummeted unexpectedly after an uneven season. Teoscar Hernández, Harrison Bader and Luis Severino signed one-year deals off disappointing seasons.
As we go through this, keep in mind:
• The actual extension projection in all cases includes what the player is slated to make this season. It will likely contain a lower AAV than the player would get on the open market for this reason.
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• These players should have higher projections this year than last year. Last year they were two years removed from free agency, and they were slated to make below market value via arbitration. Corbin Burnes made $10 million in 2023; he might get close to $40 million per season as a free agent.
• The number in parentheses is the player’s age on July 1 of this year.
• In the charts, “Today AAV” is the average annual value of the deal adjusted for inflation.
Zack Wheeler (34)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Wheeler’s initial deal with Philadelphia ranks among the best free-agent contracts this century. He’s delivered the most wins above replacement among pitchers since signing it, serving as a bona fide ace alongside Aaron Nola in pitching the Phillies deep in consecutive postseasons.
That leads to some heady company in comparisons:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR3 | fWAR5 ▼ | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 37-39 | 5.4 | 17.3 | 31.2 | 3 | 130.0 | 45.9 | |
2023 | 35-39 | 2.2 | 13.5 | 29.3 | 5 | 185.0 | 37.0 | |
2024 | 34 | 5.9 | 17.3 | 27.5 | ||||
2019 | 37-38 | 6.7 | 16.3 | 22.6 | 2 | 66.0 | 39.3 | |
2021 | 30-32 | 5.7 | 17.8 | 22.1 | 3 | 102.0 | 38.8 |
Even Wheeler’s age — he’ll be 35 in 2025 when the extension kicks in, and the Phillies’ luxury-tax situation suggests they would prefer the extension not kick in until next year — doesn’t hold him back in this cohort. This sets Wheeler up to seek around $40 million per season in an extension. How close he is to that number probably depends on the length of the deal. The shorter it is, the higher the AAV can be.
The Phillies have shown a willingness to go longer on deals to keep that AAV lower. Let’s value those free-agent years at $37.5 million apiece — just beyond his old teammate Jacob deGrom — for three years, attaching that to the money owed this year.
2024 salary: $23.5 million (final year of five-year, $118 million contract)
Extension projection: Four years, $136 million
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Corbin Burnes (29)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: Seven years, $185 million
Burnes holds his own when compared with pitchers who earned some of the biggest free-agent deals in recent history.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 30-36 | 6.5 | 16.9 | 26.3 | 7 | 217.0 | 39.1 | |
2020 | 29-37 | 7.4 | 16.8 | 24.4 | 9 | 324.0 | 41.8 | |
2015 | 30-36 | 5.2 | 15.7 | 21.6 | 7 | 191.4 | 35.0 | |
2024 | 29 | 3.4 | 15.5 | 20.1 | ||||
2024 | 31 | 3.9 | 14.6 | 22.6 | 7 | 172.0 | 24.6 | |
2020 | 31-37 | 5.7 | 14.0 | 21.5 | 7 | 245.0 | 40.6 | |
2016 | 32-37 | 5.8 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 6 | 194.0 | 40.7 |
The baseline for his free-agent years looks like the seven-year, $245 million deal Stephen Strasburg signed after the 2019 World Series — which is also what Max Scherzer’s initial deal with the Nationals equals in today’s money. Let’s suggest that as the extension, with the idea that a characteristic season from Burnes would set him up to top that valuation on the open market.
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2024 salary: $15.6 million
Extension projection: Eight years, $260 million
Max Fried (30)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: Six years, $144 million
Fried’s 2023 wasn’t what he wanted it to be, as he missed time with a hamstring strain, a forearm strain and a blister. Taking that season at face value would leave Fried in the Kevin Gausman Tier of contracts, probably around the $24 million AAV I projected this time last year.
But Fried has typically been healthy, none of those 2023 injuries foreshadow something too ominous down the line, and he performed close to his usual standards when on the mound. (He posted 1.9 wins above replacement in 14 starts; in a healthy season, he would have doubled both.) So an extension should take that into account.
A typical Fried season in 2023 would have placed him just below pitchers like Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke in value.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32-37 | 5.8 | 13.5 | 22.4 | 6 | 194.0 | 40.7 | |
2013 | 29-34 | 4.6 | 13.0 | 21.7 | 6 | 144.0 | 31.2 | |
2024 | 30 | 1.9 | 10.6 | 17.3 |
Let’s value his free-agent years at $30 million per year for six seasons — he’s a year older than Burnes — to add on top of this year’s salary.
2024 salary: $15 million
Extension projection: Seven years, $195 million
Shane Bieber (29)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: seven years, $168 million
Here’s one pitcher whose projection has gone down from a year ago. Bieber missed two months with elbow inflammation — the second time in three years he’s missed a chunk of time with a relatively concerning injury. (He had a shoulder injury in 2021.) Perhaps worse, when he did pitch, his velocity remained down and his strikeout rate plummeted further. He’s 3 mph slower and striking out half the number of batters he did during his Cy Young Award season in 2020. It’s a credit to him that he maintained a solid ERA despite that, but it’s enough to cause concern for teams looking to sign him deep into his 30s.
That means fewer aces as comps and more solid No. 2 pitchers.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 30-34 | 3.5 | 9.9 | 15.4 | 5 | 100.0 | 20.0 | |
2010 | 31-35 | 3.3 | 9.6 | 20.2 | 5 | 82.5 | 22.8 | |
2024 | 29 | 2.1 | 9.4 | 21.0 | ||||
2016 | 31-35 | 2.5 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 5 | 90.0 | 22.7 | |
2022 | 31-33 | 3.4 | 9.1 | 13.9 | 3 | 71.0 | 25.1 | |
2023 | 28-31 | 2.9 | 8.3 | 10.3 | 4 | 73.5 | 18.4 |
Those pitchers didn’t have the same downward trend as Bieber, though. The high end here would probably be a free-agent valuation at five years and $110 million, going off the present-day value of John Lackey and Jeff Samardzija’s contracts. The low end is probably Pablo López’s recent extension with the Twins. Let’s find a middle ground there, valuing the free-agent years at $20.5 million per year over four.
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2024 salary: $13.1 million
Extension projection: Five years, $95 million
Clay Holmes (31)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Holmes hasn’t reached the elite closer coterie with Hader and Edwin Díaz (or prime versions of Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen). A better comp might be Will Smith.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(2) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 30-32 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 15.5 | |
2024 | 31 | 1.5 | 2.6 |
The present-day value for Smith’s deal with the Giants would be about three years and $46 million.
2024 salary: $6 million
Extension projection: Four years, $52 million
Juan Soto (25)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: 14 years, $528 million
I examined Soto in exhaustive detail in December when he was traded to the Yankees.
2024 salary: $31 million
Extension Projection: 14 years, $540 million
Paul Goldschmidt (36)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Goldschmidt’s best pitch: consistency.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 31-35 | 5.2 | 15.4 | 26.9 | 5 | 130.0 | 30.9 | |
2024 | 36 | 3.7 | 15.6 | 24.1 |
The age is the main concern here: You’re paying for his production at 37 and above in an extension. There is a nice Hall of Fame comparison for him there, though:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 36 | 3.7 | 15.6 | 24.1 | ||||
2016 | 38-39 | 4.3 | 15.1 | 27.0 | 2 | 36.0 | 22.7 |
That provides a blueprint for three years on top of this one for Goldschmidt, with a higher AAV given his consistently elevated production.
2024 salary: $22 million
Extension Projection: Four years, $97 million
Alex Bregman (30)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Let’s compare Bregman to Rafael Devers ahead of his extension with the Red Sox.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 27-36 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 20.6 | 10 | 313.5 | 31.4 | |
2024 | 30 | 4.3 | 12.0 | 24.4 |
Devers’ deal valued his free-agent years at just over $30 million per season. Keeping a Bregman deal through his age-36 season, like Devers’, means he should earn the same.
2024 salary: $28.5 million
Extension projection: Seven years, $210 million
Pete Alonso (29)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: Nine years, $207 million
So here’s the thing with Alonso: The comparison he should make isn’t about WAR, which has graded him relatively harshly for his defense. To wit:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2009 | 29-36 | 6.9 | 14.8 | 24.9 | 8 | 180.0 | 32.0 | |
2016 | 30-36 | 5.4 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 7 | 161.0 | 29.0 | |
2012 | 28-36 | 4.7 | 13.2 | 19.2 | 9 | 214.0 | 31.4 | |
2024 | 29 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 16.6 |
Here’s a different way of looking at those comps:
Player | HR | PA/HR | OPS+ |
|---|---|---|---|
203 | 19.4 | 134 | |
203 | 17.3 | 122 | |
230 | 18.3 | 143 | |
192 | 15.2 | 136 |
The other interesting dynamic at play is whether New York (or a team signing Alonso in free agency, since that’s where this is headed) wants the slugger on a shorter deal and is willing to sacrifice some in AAV or prefers a longer deal that holds the AAV down a little. You could imagine buying out six years of free agency at something like $28 million per season or buying out eight at a lower number like $25 million.
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2024 salary: $20.5 million
Extension Projection: Seven years, $190 million
Willy Adames (28)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: 5 years, $92 million
Well, I know the comparison Adames would like to make:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 28-37 | 3.6 | 11.8 | 17.5 | 10 | 325.0 | 34.5 | |
2024 | 28 | 3.4 | 11.3 | 18.0 |
Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers has always been an outlier in this specific analysis — and judging by Seager’s recent performance, a justified one. Let’s look at more realistic comps for Adames:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 29-34 | 4.0 | 13.2 | 22.3 | 6 | 140.0 | 24.7 | |
2024 | 28 | 3.4 | 11.3 | 18.0 | ||||
2023 | 24-30 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 7 | 106.5 | 15.2 |
The Andres Giménez one is different because Giménez was extended with four years of team control remaining. But his extension last spring valued his free-agent years at about $24 million apiece, and that’s a solid number for Adames — and in line with Javier Báez’s deal in Detroit.
2024 salary: $12.3 million
Extension projection: Six years, $132 million
Ha-Seong Kim (28)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Let’s bring Giménez right back as a comp:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023 | 24-30 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 7 | 106.5 | 15.2 | |
2024 | 28 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.6 |
The Guardians bought out three years of Giménez’s free agency for about $72 million. Sounds about right for Kim.
2024 salary: $8 million
Extension projection: Four years, $80 million
Christian Walker (33)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
Walker is not as far behind Alonso in WAR as you might think:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 29 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 16.6 | |
2024 | 33 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 13.7 |
However, as I’ve said before, offense gets rewarded more in free agency, especially at a position like first base. (You’d rather be a three-WAR first baseman who slugs 50 homers than a three-WAR Gold Glover at the position.) Walker is also slated to enter free agency at 34, which will limit his earning power there.
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 31-32 | 2.1 | 8.6 | 16.2 | 2 | 32.0 | 17.0 | |
2024 | 33 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 13.7 | ||||
2018 | 32-34 | 3.1 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 3 | 60.0 | 24.2 |
He’s older than Anthony Rizzo but coming off a better season, so let’s add a touch to the AAV but keep the term short.
2024 salary: $10.9 million
Extension projection: Three years, $48 million
Gleyber Torres (27)
Controlled through 2024
Last year’s projection: N/A
While he’s not quite fulfilled the prospect hype around him, Torres has been a solid regular in the Bronx, and he’s in line to be a free agent ahead of his age-28 season — unusually young for the open market. On the one hand, he hasn’t produced enough that a team would comfortably sign him through his mid-30s. On the other, a shorter-term deal would capture most of his prime with little of the downside after, which could lift the AAV.
His best comp is a different kind of player:
Player | Signed | Ages | fWAR(1) | fWAR(3) | fWAR(5) | Years | Total | Today AAV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 31-34 | 2.9 | 8.1 | 16.4 | 4 | 60.0 | 15.9 | |
2024 | 27 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 12.8 |
Because of Torres’ youth, let’s amp up the AAV on the Chris Taylor deal but keep it on the shorter end.
2024 salary: $14.2 million
Extension projection: Four years, $68 million
GO DEEPER
Rosenthal: Corbin Burnes eyes the pitching market, inside Matt Chapman's deal and more
(Top photo of Corbin Burnes: Kim Klement Neitzel / USA Today)
