Republicans would have big advantages in legislative races in maps Democratic governor submits to court

Patrick Marley Craig Gilbert
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is offering new redistricting plans that would give Republicans a much better shot at controlling the Legislature than Democrats.

MADISON - Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is offering new redistricting plans that would give Republicans a much better shot at controlling the Legislature than Democrats — but not by quite as wide a margin as they do today. 

Evers new proposals, issued Wednesday, came in response to a ruling last month from the state Supreme Court that said it planned to make as few changes to the state's legislative maps as possible. 

Under his new plans, Republicans would still be advantaged in legislative elections but to a lesser degree than under plans submitted by Republicans who control the Legislature. Under Evers' plans, 60 of 99 Assembly districts would lean Republican in their makeup, based on an average of the 2016 and 2020 presidential race and the 2018 contest for governor.

But several of those seats would be only marginally Republican, according to an analysis by John Johnson, a research fellow at the Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center. A total of 52 Assembly seats would have a Republican advantage of 5 points or more, compared to 58 under the Republicans' plan. 

In the state Senate, 22 of 33 districts would lean at least slightly Republican in their makeup under Evers' plans, based on those same three recent elections. But in several of those, the GOP edge would be small; 18 Senate seats would have at least a 5-point GOP advantage, compared to 21 under the Republicans' plans.

The governor’s maps feature a higher number of competitive legislative seats than ones drawn by Republican lawmakers — about 22 Assembly districts with a single-digit partisan lean (compared to 14 in the GOP plan) and 11 with a partisan lean of under 5 points (compared to seven in the Legislature’s plan).

States must draw new legislative and congressional maps using U.S. Census Bureau data every 10 years to make sure districts have equal populations. Where the lines go can give one political party big advantages in elections for a decade.

Because Evers and Republican lawmakers haven’t been able to agree on maps, the state Supreme Court is taking up the matter.

Evers last year created a commission that he charged with drawing nonpartisan maps. He championed the commission’s work this fall and said he would fight for its plans in court.

He abandoned those plans after the high court two weeks ago issued a 4-3 ruling saying it would minimize the changes it would make to the maps that have been in place for the last decade.

That was a victory for Republicans because the current maps favor their party. They drew them in 2011, when they controlled all of state government.

The justices’ decision effectively warned Evers the court would not accept the plans from his commission.

Wisconsin is a purple state when it comes to statewide races, with four of the last six presidential contests decided by less than a point. In legislative races, Republicans have an edge because their voters are more evenly dispersed throughout the state, while many of Wisconsin's Democrats are concentrated in Milwaukee, Madison and other urban centers.

The Democratic governor's plan favors Republicans in legislative races because of the combination of the state's geography and the November court order that said the justices would make as few changes as possible. 

The Republican lawmakers on Wednesday asked the state Supreme Court to adopt the plan they adopted in November. Those plans are even more advantageous to Republicans than the lines they drew in 2011.

Under their plans, 63 of 99 Assembly districts would lean Republican in their makeup and 36 would lean Democratic, based on how these districts voted in the 2016, 2018 and 2020 top-of-the-ticket races.

The GOP advantage would be small in a few of these districts, but the Republican edge would be at least 5 points in 58 of 99 Assembly seats, making the GOP majority safe from almost anything short of a Democratic landslide.

Under the GOP plans, 23 of the 33 state Senate districts would lean Republican in their makeup, 21 of them by at least 5 points.

The Republican plans feature very few competitive districts in either chamber — and fewer than there are under the current lines. Based on the most recent races for president and governor, only six of 99 Assembly districts would have a partisan lean of under 5 points (meaning 93 of them would be pretty safe for one side or the other). Only two of 33 Senate districts would have a partisan lean of under 5 points. 

As for the congressional map, the plan submitted by the Republican-controlled Legislature would mean that six of the state’s eight U.S. House seats would lean Republican in their makeup. The only exceptions would be the two very blue districts anchored in Milwaukee and Madison.

The most competitive seat under this plan would be the Third District in western Wisconsin, but that district still would have an average 5-point GOP lean, based on the last race for governor and last two contests for president.

Under the governor’s plan, four districts would be safe GOP seats, two would be safe Democratic seats and two would have a very small Republican lean: the Third District and the First District in southeastern Wisconsin. Each of these districts would have about a 2-point GOP tilt, based on the same three recent elections for president and governor.

The governor's decision to submit maps in court that hadn't been previously made public prompted accusations of hypocrisy from his opponents. Evers for years has decried Republicans for drawing maps behind closed doors.

Playing on Evers’ propensity for calling people "folks," the conservative group Common Sense Wisconsin tweeted, "No public input from folks. No hearings for the folks. All of Evers' past statements on redistricting are now nothing but folklore."

Contact Patrick Marley at patrick.marley@jrn.com. Follow him on Twitter at @patrickdmarley.