AMD's Ryzen Desktop CPU revenue is expected to decline by 26% in 2022 due to Intel's resurgence in the segment thanks to 12th Gen Alder Lake CPUs, reports Morgan Stanley's analyst.
AMD Ryzen CPU Revenue To Decline In 2022 Amidst Slow PC Market, Motherboard Makers Also Lower Their Shipment Forecasts
In a recent market analysis, Joseph Moore, market analyst at Morgan Stanley, reports that AMD's PC market revenue within the desktop segment which mostly comprises its Ryzen CPUs could see a major decline. The analyst forecasts that AMD could see a 26% revenue decline and there are a lot of factors that have led this to happen.
Not only is the PC market in general on a decline in 2022, but a resurged Intel, which has found success in its 12th Gen Alder Lake CPUs has been giving AMD some heated competition in the mainstream segment. As such, AMD's Ryzen CPU revenue is expected to decline by 26% year over year. The company will make some gains starting later this year with the launch of its first Zen 4 products, namely Ryzen 7000 CPUs and more options for the long-lasting AM4 platform. As such, the company is expected to see a market revenue decline of only 2% in 2023 and see a relatively stable period after that.
Moore expects AMD to see desktop PC-related revenue fall 26% year-over-year in 2022 and 2% in 2023, and lose some market share due to the success of Intel's Alder Lake processor in the gaming market. However, Moore said AMD should see "relative stability thereafter."
AMD didn't have any mainstream options for AM4 users until after Intel introduced its 12th Gen Alder Lake CPUs. As such, they started off slowly and that might've affected them. But it looks like even motherboard makers aren't hopeful of the PC market in general and have lowered their projections for 2022. ASUS projects a total of 14 million units to be shipped in 2022 while Gigabyte has projected 9.5 million units. That's a stark contrast to the 18 million and 13 million units that each manufacturer shipped last year, respectively.
As per DigiTimes, ASUS is expecting motherboard sales to fall by 24% while Gigabyte expects a fall of 27% in 2022. The overall motherboard market will see a decline from 40 Million units to just 30 Million. The market may see a small boost thanks to the launch of AMD's Ryzen 7000 & Intel's 13th Gen Desktop CPUs later this year but the PC DIY market is expected to remain in a dire situation until the end of 2023 due to rising inflation. Following table shows the difference in motherboard shipments throughout 2019-2022 (Credits: Tomshardware).
| Year | Asus motherboards | Gigabyte motherboards |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 (projected) | 14 million | 9.5 million |
| 2021 | 18 million | 13 million |
| 2020 | NA | 13 million |
| 2019 | 16.4 million | NA |
Although prices and supply on various components are returning to normals, it might take time for the market to recover and for consumers to reignite their interest within the Desktop PC segment.
