COLUMBUS, Ohio – Ohioans sent a strong message this week, defeating State Issue 1 by 14 percentage points and handing state Republicans a rare and decisive electoral loss.
The issue has clear ramifications for November, when voters will decide whether to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution. Issue 1′s defeat means the abortion measure will pass if it gets more than 50% of the vote, not the 60% Issue 1 would have required.
But digging into the political fallout a little deeper, here are some other takeaways from the results:
1. Frank LaRose’s big bet
Democrats were quick to gleefully paint Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose as Tuesday’s night “biggest loser.”
They’re looking ahead to 2024, when LaRose will be one of three major Republican candidates looking to win the chance to unseat Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown in November. LaRose, who was the first to publicly float the idea that developed into Issue 1, became a prominent face of the “yes” campaign, earning him his own dedicated attack ad for his trouble.
“I don’t often say this, but I want to thank Frank LaRose,” Ohio Democratic Party Chair Liz Walters told reporters on Wednesday.
LaRose, Walters said, served as a useful spokesperson for the “no” side by getting caught on tape, as depicted in the ad, saying Issue 1 was “all about abortion” (LaRose, who immediately went on to tie the issue to several other issues, has said he was taken out of context.)
Democrats also have telegraphed they may try to paint LaRose as an incompetent elections administrator, saying he was too distracted trying to campaign for Issue 1. His office made several pre-election errors, including sending county boards of election the wrong Issue 1 ballot language and sending an email to prospective poll-workers containing the wrong election date. The election itself cost taxpayers $20 million, leading bipartisan county elections officials to oppose it.
And, Democrats are pleased that LaRose during an interview with a Cincinnati radio station last month described Issue 1′s Republican opponents as “not true conservatives.” Given that Issue 1 underperformed ex-President Donald Trump’s 2020 margins by double digits in 50 Ohio counties, it’s clear a significant number of Ohio Republicans voted against the measure.
From LaRose’s perspective, despite Issue 1′s double-digit loss, his team is pleased with the measure’s high turnout, which saw 1.3 million people cast “yes” votes. They’ve reasoned that promoting Issue 1 has given LaRose a chance to win over potentially wary conservative primary voters, who largely oppose abortion, and differentiate himself from his opponents in the March primary election.
LaRose issued a statement late Tuesday referencing the 1.3 million vote number, saying Issue 1 lost because of out-of-state liberal dark money.
“I’ve said for months now that there’s an assault coming on our constitution, and that hasn’t changed,” LaRose said. “I’m just getting started in the fight to protect Ohio’s values.”
2. A tactical win for abortion-rights advocates
Unsurprisingly, abortion-rights advocates viewed Tuesday’s vote as a victory because it makes it easier for their amendment to pass in November by not having to get 60% of the vote.
But Issue 1′s defeat is good for the abortion-rights campaign for less obvious reasons, too.
First, it shows their leaders and supporters that they can win a statewide vote. That’s a moral boost to their campaign workers and activists, no small thing given Ohio Republicans’ recent history of electoral dominance. It also shows progressive national donors, who have grown disenchanted with Ohio, that the Buckeye State isn’t a lost cause for them.
Conversely, the Issue 1 campaign sucked up money from the November budget, the $5 million that funded anti-Issue 1 ads. The issue failed anyway, which also could have a chilling effect on the anti-abortion side’s November fundraising.
“What impact that will have on fundraising on our opposition side moving forward I think time will tell,” said Dr. Laura Beene, a Cleveland pediatrician who is one of the leaders of the abortion-rights campaign in November. “But, knowing that that special election was there put on in August 100% because of the abortion rights amendment that we are putting forward, it really wasn’t that surprising that all that money came in. And thankfully it didn’t work.”
3. Republicans throw a lifeline to Ohio Democrats
There’s another byproduct of the August election.
By scheduling it in August in an off-year, with no other races to compete for money or attention, the Issue 1 campaign had an easier path to raising money. And it did so prolifically, bringing in at least $12 million, the vast majority of which came from out-of-state groups.
In that sense, Republicans did Democrats, the Issue 1 campaign and the abortion-rights campaign in November, a favor by creating favorable electoral conditions for Ohio Democrats to finally win one for a change.
Walters, the Ohio Democratic Party chair, since taking office in 2022 has been trying to sell wary national donors on the idea that Ohio isn’t a lost cause for Democrats.
“Normally we’re having these conversations around the country when there’s 50 other elections happening in the country,” Walters said last Friday, before the election. “So to kind of be the only thing happening in this moment and to have all eyes in Ohio has really helped people to see that the Midwest is worth investing in.”
4. These kinds of proposals are a tough sell
Issue 1 widely was interpreted as a proxy vote for the abortion-rights amendment that Ohioans will vote on in November. But there’s a larger context surrounding these issues.
Voters in Arkansas and South Dakota rejected similar 60% proposals last year by wide margins. Arkansas’s failed 59% to 41% while South Dakota’s failed 67%-33%, four years after voters rejected a less strict version of the proposal.
Issue 1 supporters chalked up their loss in part to Issue 1 being hard to understand, particularly in the face of million of dollars of TV ads attacking it.
In candid remarks to reporters on Tuesday night, Senate President Matt Huffman seemed to say he put Issue 1 up for a vote while believing it would lose the whole time. But he also said he expects to revisit the issue at some point in the future.
“I’m kind of astonished that we got within 10 points if that’s what it ends up being,” said Huffman, who helped lead several amendment campaigns in the past decade, some successful, some not.
Still, Huffman said he thinks the issue is important enough that he expects to bring it back at some point in the future.
Andrew Tobias covers state politics and government for cleveland.com and The Plain Dealer
An earlier version of this story incorrectly said 1.3 million Ohioans cast “no” votes on State Issue 1. It has been corrected to reflect that 1.3 million Ohioans cast “yes” votes.