The Biden administration’s dire warning that the US will soon be out of money for Ukraine has run up against a grim reality on Capitol Hill, where some House conservatives have balked at supporting more Ukraine funding and Senate Republicans are insisting on making it part of a broader spending package to include money for Israel, Taiwan and the US Southern border.
With talks stalled and lawmakers expected to leave Washington for the holidays at the end of next week, the White House’s chances of securing more Ukraine funding look bleak, especially as the administration appears close to exhausting its ability to procure equipment and weapons for Ukraine without more money from Congress.
In a letter to congressional leadership on Monday, director of the Office of Management and Budget Shalanda Young said that “without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks.”
“There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment,” Young wrote. “We are out of money—and nearly out of time.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is moving ahead with plans to force a vote on the supplemental package without the border policy changes, but has offered Republicans a chance to vote on an amendment to the bill that would face almost impossible odds of being added. Senate Republicans have made clear they’ll vote against advancing the supplemental without robust changes to border policy.
Running out of money to replenish US stocks
Most of the roughly $44 billion in military assistance that the US has provided to Ukraine has come from two sources – the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the Pentagon to pull equipment and weapons systems from its own inventories to send to Ukraine, and the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows the Pentagon to use money allotted by Congress to buy new equipment from US defense manufacturers.
Sources tell CNN that while the PDA is running low, most of the other accounts are either obligated or spent. The Pentagon said in early November that USAI funding had run out. There is also only about $1 billion left in defense and intelligence surveillance funding, according to an administration official.
While the USAI is tapped out, there is roughly $4.8 billion left in the PDA, according to Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder. The problem is that some US officials are concerned the PDA funds could be further restricted by how much money the US has to replenish its stocks and replace what it sends to Ukraine. And right now, there is only about $1 billion left in available funding to backfill those stockpiles, according to one of the US officials who spoke to CNN.
Generally, most of what is provided to Ukraine from US stocks are older — but still functioning — models of whatever equipment is needed, according to a US official familiar with the funding. That is typically backfilled by newer equipment, the official said. And on Monday, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said while the Pentagon does still have PDA funding left, “the important thing to focus on is we don’t have enough money to replenish what we take out from our stocks.”
On Tuesday, Ryder added that barring any further support from Congress, the Pentagon’s spending decisions on Ukraine will soon be informed by multiple factors, including “our capacity to replenish our resources.” A second US official who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity also emphasized that despite having several billion left in PDA funding, the Pentagon’s ability to send equipment to Ukraine could be restricted by the available funds to replace equipment in its own inventories.
“We can’t give someone our used car if we don’t have the money to buy a new one,” the official said.
A US defense official added that if the US fails to “replenish our services in a timely basis,” without supplemental funds, “we’ll certainly wrestle with challenges to existing readiness.” That official also said, though, that every drawdown decision has been made “with current requirements around the globe” in mind.
Republicans still skeptical
The urgent case from the White House, however, hasn’t resonated with some Republicans.
And House conservatives, some of whom have long opposed additional Ukraine aid, said the message from the White House was falling on “deaf ears.”
“Any warning from this administration goes on deaf ears. They’re the ones that caused it,” GOP Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina told CNN on Tuesday. “I want the president to realize what’s at stake here with our country. We want to see Ukraine succeed and we have, we put money together, we put the funds together previously — now’s the time to secure our border.”
Speaker Mike Johnson also responded to OMB’s letter Tuesday, writing that he would not put more Ukraine aid on the floor of the House unless a series of questions were answered about how the funding would be used and unless robust border policy changes were included despite the fact the talks have hit a major snag.
Johnson said since he met with the president in October, he has been clear that “supplemental Ukraine funding is dependent upon enactment of transformative change to our nation’s border security laws.”
“Second,” said Johnson, “I explained that Congress and the American people must be provided with answers to our repeated questions concerning: the Administration’s strategy to prevail in Ukraine; clearly defined and obtainable objectives; transparency and accountability for U.S. taxpayer dollars invested there; and what specific resources are required to achieve victory and a sustainable peace.”
Schumer has set up a procedural vote for Wednesday on the aid package that includes funding for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and the southern border but doesn’t include changes to border policy. Republican senators vow they’ll vote against that despite the warnings from the White House.
“It may require a failed cloture vote on the supplemental before Sen. Schumer realizes we are serious,” Sen. John Cornyn of Texas told reporters on Monday.
Austin presses lawmakers in private
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke privately with lawmakers while at the Reagan National Defense Forum in California over the weekend about the importance of securing funding, among other national security priorities, Ryder told CNN.
“If we do not stand up to the Kremlin’s naked aggression today, if we do not deter other would-be aggressors, we will only embolden them — and we will invite even more bloodshed and chaos,” Austin said in his public remarks at the forum. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers a grim preview of a world of tyranny and turmoil that should make us all shudder.”
And it’s not just Ukraine; the supplemental funding is also meant to provide security assistance to Israel, and partners in the Indo-Pacific.
“We have the capacity to do all three,” a defense official said. “But we’ll need Congress’ help.”