A Turning-Point Week for the GOP Presidential Race – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, August 27, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Vivek Ramaswamy, GOP Candidate at Wednesday's GOP Debate

It’s my final week in Florida, watching politics from this critical, battleground state. There are some key developments here which we will get to.  But the big story in politics on the national stage was the first Republican presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday. The forum did not include former President Donald Trump who had pressing “business” elsewhere and in the end, Trump once again upstaged everyone with the “mugshot heard ‘round the world.” Let’s “brunch” on all of that this week:

 

“The Debate Winners and Losers” – Okay, calling them winners and losers may be unfair. The debate was lively and, at times informative, but then it was part political theatre and circus, too. I would say the top-tier debaters in ranked order were Mike Pence, Nicky Haley, Chris Christie, and Vivek Ramaswamy. My bottom tier, in order, were Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis, Asa Hutchinson, and Doug Burgun.

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“Pence Pounces” – Yes, overall, I thought Mike Pence had the best, most effective debate performance. Why? Well, he had to walk this precarious tightrope. He had to both defend what he thought were Trump’s (and his) accomplishments and then condemn Trump’s most controversial behavior. Whether he spoke of their administration’s tax cuts, border wall initiative, or defense spending, Pence said, “I am proud of the Trump-Pence administration!” But as for Trump’s actions on January 6, 2021, Pence said, “I’m not going to bow to any President who disrespects the Constitution.” I know he will be criticized here for “trying to have it both ways,” but if Pence is nominated, he still needs a lot of support from the Trump base to get in the White House. Many Trumpers resent the former VP. Still, I thought he was firm, confident, and the elder statesman on stage. Well done, Pence!

 

“DeSantis Near Last? How Can That Be?”- First of all my assessment is strictly about debate performance, not qualifications. DeSantis, who is second (but distant to Trump) in most polls, clearly has a long resume and is ready to serve as president. But the debate format did him no favors. Under the rules, if one candidate even mentioned another (whether it was an attack or not), that mentioned candidate got 30 seconds to respond. Thus, you had some great dust-ups between Nicky Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy, and Chris Christie and Ramaswamy, who was kind of like a lightning rod all night. But there were few, if any, attacks against DeSantis, so he was marginalized on stage. I time code my notes, to make it easier for me to find quotes. At 10:21:18 pm, I wrote of DeSantis saying, “We’ve not heard from him in a long time!” Did the other candidates conspire to keep him out with the silent treatment? Could be!

 

“Abortion Will be a Key Issue in 2024” – After the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, which legalized abortions nationally, the high court said it was up to individual states to make their own laws. Many have, but it ranges wildly from no abortion at all, to none after six weeks of pregnancy, or none after 15 weeks. Republicans who led the fight to overturn Roe always argued that it was a states’ rights issue, and eventually, they prevailed. That’s why it was jarring to hear debaters, including Tim Scott and Mike Pence, propose Wednesday night that Congress pass, and the president sign, a nationwide ban on abortions after 15 weeks, so that all states would be uniform. This will cause continued friction and controversy as the race goes on. Nikki Haley, who describes herself as pro-life, said, “This is the women’s issue of our time.” She knows the party’s stance could affect key swing votes among suburban women, in November 2024.

 

“Will the Debate Memory do a Fast Fade?” – In this world of cell phones, the internet, satellite TV, and other gadgets, our attention spans are short. I mention this because I wonder about the long-term impact of this debate, if any. After all, later in the week the debate was juxtaposed by scenes at the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, where President Trump, and top aides, including Rudy Giuliani and Mark Meadows, were booked, fingerprinted, and had mug shots taken. Trump’s angry mugshot may become the most famous of all time, and I, like many people, believe it was rehearsed and deliberate. What do you remember most about this week, a moment from the debate or the Trump jail photo? He didn’t even appear on stage, but may have won the debate anyway!

 

“A Glass Half-Full” – The latest GOP composite poll from Real Clear Politics in the first caucus state of Iowa, shows Trump with a commanding 43 percent of those polled supporting his bid. DeSantis is in second place, but his 17 percent of the vote is in sharp contrast from previous polls with him hovering at 11 percent. While nine percent of Iowans are undecided, the other eight Republicans are still in the single digits. For those who don’t like Trump, this is a chance for DeSantis to grow more supporters. Yes, it’s still a long shot, but a strong second-place showing could help him stay in the race. The old saying is, “There are only three tickets out of Iowa,” in a contested primary. DeSantis likely survives beyond the Hawkeye State.

 

“Chris Christie in the Sunshine State”— I give former Gov. Chris Christie credit for visiting Florida this week for a series of campaign stops and media interviews. Most GOP candidates are writing off the Sunshine State because both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis live here. But Christie is clearly the most combative and competitive brawler on the GOP side. Even if he loses, he always goes down swinging. DeSantis promised to defend the non-present Trump from the Wednesday debate in Milwaukee. Christie’s response: “I think that is kind of silly to be running against Donald Trump and your strategy is to defend him in his absence,” Christie said. “It sounds to me like you are more interested in being his vice president or being in his cabinet.”

 

“Florida Now Has a Competitive Senate Race” – Sen. Rick Scott (R) Florida, now has a challenger from the other side of the aisle. Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) Florida has announced her bid for the U.S. Senate. She was born in Ecuador and was the first South American elected to Congress. She represented the Homestead area of South Florida but was defeated after one term in 2020. Still, in a state where the Hispanic vote is fractured, but critical to both parties, she could put what was once considered a “safe” GOP seat, in play.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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