Give Thanks for the End of One Political Season as Another Begins – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, November 27, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

People must think I am a glutton for punishment. We are just shy of three weeks from the 2022 election, and I am already getting dialed in for key races shaping up for 2024. At the same time, I am a glutton for Thanksgiving weekend food, so between that and politics, we have a lot to chew on. Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

 

“The GOP House Lead Grows” – The Republicans have seized control of the U.S. House come January; the only question now is their margin. As of last Wednesday, 220 House members are Republicans and 213 are Democrats. Two close races remain on the bubble. My final prediction is 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. That’s pretty thin. Democrats would only need a net gain of five seats in 2024, so it’s doable. And if former President Trump is the Republican nominee for president, that may actually help Democrats as it did in many races in 2022, especially in the Senate. Quite honestly, both chambers of Congress are clearly up for grabs and within reach of power in 2024.

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“The Surprising Source of Victory” – It’s hard to believe that liberal, blue-state California was actually the margin of victory in the U.S. House and will make Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California, the new Speaker of the House. In the end, the GOP took three seats. Rep. Mike Garcia (R) California won a close reelection race. Rep. David Valadao (R) eked out a win in the Central Valley, and 13th District Republican John Duarte is favored in his close race. In a more multi-racial society, all three men are part Latino, in the Republican Party. Like Florida and Texas, a lot more Latino voters are leaning right, and this is helping Republicans in close races. It’s a big trend to watch. Latinos remain the nation’s largest minority group at about 15 percent.

 

“Baked Alaska” – I am no fan of the ranked-choice voting system adopted in Alaska, California, and some other states. Basically, you pick your first-place candidate, but then you get to pick your second and third place choices. There is a weighting system, which determines who wins on a proportional basis. Look, this is NOT “Dancing with the Stars!” This is American democracy, where the person with the most votes wins, period. It’s not a “participation trophy” to make everyone feel good. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska won the weighted vote, even though Trump-backed candidate Kelley Tshibaka won first-place outright. But these ranked choice 2nd and 3rd place votes re-elected Murkowski. Former Gov. Sarah Palin also lost her U.S, House race, by splitting the vote with another Republican. So, Rep. Mary Peltola (D) Alaska keeps the seat.  I believe ranked choice voting will be unfair to candidates in both parties.

 

“Carving up Manchin” – There is no bigger prize in 2024 in the U.S. Senate than the seat presently occupied by Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia. He has been the key swing vote on so many key issues, often siding with the Republican caucus, to the detriment of the Senate Democrats and the Biden White House. Manchin has yet to lay out his plans for 2024. He could run for the Senate again, (although in 2018, he said this would be his final term). Or he could return to the Mountain State and run for Governor (a job he LOVED over six-years). Or might he switch parties and tilt the Senate back to the GOP? He is clearly the most conservative Democrat in his caucus. He has a lot of options.

 

“The Challengers Line Up” – As mentioned here last week, Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia has already announced he’s leaving his House seat of 10 years, to run for U.S. Senate in 2024. Mooney and Manchin do not like each other. Then this week, Gov. Jim Justice (R) West Virginia announced, he too, might run for the Republican Senate nomination as he is termed-out as governor. Gov. Justice said, "Absolutely, without any question, I'm really thinking really hard about it. I'm very seriously considering running for Senate. You know I have not made a final decision yet.”

 

“Is Donald the ‘Trump Card?’” – Donald Trump and Jim Justice belong to that exclusive club reserved for billionaires. Their families have been friends for years. Trump joined Justice at a rally in Huntington, West Virginia in August of 2017. That night, the governor, who was elected just nine months earlier, switched his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican. Justice and Manchin were once close, with Manchin’s advisors helping Justice get elected governor. Justice then appointed Manchin’s wife Gayle to be Secretary of Education and Cultural Affairs, only to fire her later. It was ugly. The two men are still cordial but are described as “frenemies.” Keep in mind Trump carried West Virginia in 2020 and 2016, with the highest victory percentage of any state in the nation. If Trump is the 2024 nominee, his coattails could be long here, and swing control of the Senate.

 

“The Wild Cards” – Two developments this past week are potentially critical. First, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump’s tax returns, for several years, could be released to the House committee investigating his finances and taxes. But with Republicans set to take control of the House in about six weeks, the investigation will be quashed. How much gets leaked by Democrats between now and then remains to be seen. Second, the U.S Justice Department is seeking testimony from former Vice-President Mike Pence, about what was known at the White House, before, during, and after the January 6th Capitol riots. While Pence has hinted a claim of executive privilege before, my prediction is that he will cooperate with very damaging testimony against Trump. Pence will then announce his bid for the White House in 2024.

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