How Long Can Trump Defy Gravity? – “The Sunday Political Brunch” September 3, 2023

Sunday, September 03, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump appearing on CNN PHOTO: Screengrab of YouTube

Ronald Reagan was often called “The Teflon President.” That was because whatever controversy might besiege him, it never seemed to stick. He was so popular amongst his base and party (and even begrudgingly from the other side of the aisle), nothing bad ever stuck to him. Now, the same can’t be said for Donald Trump as far as Democrats, but despite four indictments, his own party still loves him. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Post Debate Poll” - The prestigious and highly respected Emerson College Poll is the first out after the initial GOP debate in Milwaukee and Trump’s latest indictment. The first headline is that Donald Trump was the choice of 50 percent of the respondents. The bad news for Trump is this is his lowest rating so far in any Emerson presidential preference poll, although no GOP foe is even remotely close. So, despite not showing up and then the fourth indictment, he’s still in the GOP driver’s seat for 2024.

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“Meadows in Court” – Former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows made a legal move this past week to try to move his Georgia criminal indictment from state to federal court. It’s an effort to move the case beyond the heavily Democrat jury pool in Atlanta to a broader group of rural, more Republican-leaning jury pool candidates from northern Georgia. Mr. Trump and others are planning a similar legal strategy. We’ll see how it plays out.

 

“Trump Super Tuesday” – Two weeks ago, I wrote that the Trump trial date of March 4, 2024, would be viewed as suspicious by many Trump backers and even others. It is, after all, the day before the key Super Tuesday Primaries of March 5, 2024. One of my editors, who is a lawyer, weighed in, saying, “Just have to disagree. Trials are set based on everyone's schedules, taking into account discovery, depositions, etc. In this case, there would never be a ‘good’ date for Trump and Co,” she said. Her point is well-taken. I still contend the March 4, 2024, date, just a day before Super Tuesday, smells “fishy” to many. But I think the Trump legal team’s request to move the trial to the Spring of 2026, is equally as preposterous. Trying to postpone it until after the 2024 election is a “Hail Mary” legal ploy.

 

“Is There a Compromise Date?” -- My guess is the trial may start June or July 2024, after the primary season is over, although this could spill into the weeks during the party’s national nominating conventions. There really is no good time for both sides. So, the judge may have to just “saw the baby in half like King Solomon. My guess? A June 1, 2024, trial date. Quite honestly, I’m not sure if the date matters anymore. The worse the publicity against Trump gets, the more it emboldens his base. His poll numbers have held steady. As of now, he’s likely the Republican nominee.

 

“Giuliani Sinking” – The collateral damage from this scandal is sad. Trump lawyer and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s fall from grace is tragic. The man who led his city and the nation triumphantly through the September 11th attacks is now tainted beyond recognition. He lost a defamation case brought by two Georgia poll workers he said worked to rig election results against Trump but provided no proof. The judge ruled in favor of the two poll workers. Damages will be forthcoming.

 

“Winners and Losers” – Despite what I evaluated last week as a very weak debate performance, Gov. Ron DeSantis rose by two points to 12 percent in the Emerson preference poll. That’s a long stretch to Trump’s 50 percent. The upstart Vivek Ramaswamy was down one percentage point to nine percent. The biggest gainers – albeit slight- were former Vice President Mike Pence who rose four percentage points to seven percent. Former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina rose five points, to seven percent. If you recall my analysis from last week, I called Pence and Haley the two biggest winners, but they still have a long boat of traction to gain, to even be relevant. If the nominee is Trump, Pence has no job, but I could see Haley as the VP nominee.

 

“Suarez Out Already” – He was one of the last in and is the first out. Two-term Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has already dropped out of the Republican race after he failed to secure a spot in the first debate. Suarez made no endorsement but issued a statement saying, “I look forward to keeping in touch with the other Republican presidential candidates and doing what I can to make sure our party puts forward a strong nominee who can inspire and unify the country, renew Americans’ trust in our institutions and in each other, and win.”

 

“Suarez Could be Pivotal” – This is going to be a weird if not delicate dance. Suarez was the third Floridian in the race behind Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis. Suarez, the son of Cuban refugee immigrants and the son of Miami’s first Hispanic mayor, brings considerable sway in that demographic. His first cousin, Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia, is a legitimate candidate for U.S. Senate. In short, they represent one of the first family dynasties of legitimate Latino political power in U.S. History. The 2024 primary in Florida could be extremely competitive between Trump and DeSantis. A Suarez endorsement could swing the balance.

 

“Let’s Find ‘Common Ground’ on Opioids” – This week I had the distinct honor to interview former U.S. Rep Mary Bono (R) California, who served eight terms in Congress. As you may recall, she succeeded her late husband and rock and roll singer-turned Rep. Sonny Bono (R) California after his tragic death. She is now heading up the group Mothers Against Prescription Drug Abuse, www.MAPDA.net. Bono is trying to prevent opioid deaths, by urging parents to have urgent heart-to-heart talks with their kids about opioids. “You all in West Virginia know very well about this problem, especially with prescription drugs and prescription drug abuse. But now it’s morphed into the fentanyl crisis which is far more deadly than anyone ever imagined. So that’s what we are seeing now, the fentanyl problem,” said former Rep. Mary Bono (R-CA). Securing the Southern Border would go a long way to slow the fentanyl trafficking.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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