Into the Starting Gate and They’re Off—“The Sunday Political Brunch” May 7, 2023

Sunday, May 07, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

View Larger +

President Joe Biden PHOTO: Campaign

It’s only fitting this Kentucky Derby weekend that we use the tired “horse race” metaphor to describe the political landscape. It’s shaping up early for 2024, and some of the hotly contested races have leaped out of the starting gate. 2024 is the “Triple Crown” of politics, with control of the White House, the Senate, and the House, all up for grabs. Let’s “brunch” on that this week:

 

“The West Virginia Derby!” – West Virginia borders Kentucky, and boy, do we have a horserace of our own. “Liberal Jim Justice, just can’t be trusted,” screams the attack ad from Rep. Alex Mooney, who is challenging Gov. Jim Justice in the Senate Republican primary in May of 2024. We are a full year away and the ad wars are already underway. There is a scene where Justice is pulling a COVID-19 mask over his eyes and mouth, and the announcer says, “Justice can’t mask the truth! “Liberal Jim Justice just can’t be trusted.” It’s going to be a long, mean year.

GET THE LATEST BREAKING NEWS HERE -- SIGN UP FOR GOLOCAL FREE DAILY EBLAST

 

“The Senate Super Bowl” – Many political analysts are now calling the West Virginia Senate race the number-one contest for 2024 in the nation. I agree. Control of the Senate hangs in the balance. Other critical Senate races are in Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, and Montana. But West Virginia is ground-zero. The Justice-Mooney primary is the top intra-party race in the country right now. Current Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia has yet to say if he’s in or out. But when asked about Justice’s entry into the Senate race, Manchin (who is also thinking about running for president), sent out a terse one-line press release simply saying, “I will win any race I enter.”

 

“The Sharp Elbowing is Underway!” – Oh, it got nasty, and it got there fast! Jim Justice is a multi-generational West Virginia native. Alex Mooney moved here ten years ago after serving 12 years in the Maryland State Senate, as well as Maryland GOP chairman. “I mean he’s from Maryland. He’s not a West Virginian.” Justice added, “For all practical purposes, West Virginians don’t even know that man.” Mooney who has won five terms as a West Virginia resident countered, “I was elected with 66 percent of the vote, in half the state,” Mooney said of his fifth U.S. House win in the Mountain State. “I am a West Virginian by choice. I live in Jefferson County (West Virginia) with my wife and three children. My daughter was born in Charleston.”

 

“Counter Fact Checking This Race” – Okay, first off, Jim Justice is not a liberal. Yes, he was elected as a conservative Democrat in 2016, and then switched parties seven months into his term. Justice said, “Could you possibly think of a Republican that has been more conservative than me? I mean more things passed, you know. Stood for life, stood rock solid for guns. Absolutely minded the store the right.” Mooney, who voted against the $1.2 trillion-dollar federal infrastructure bill that Justice supported said, “Look, spending is out of control. And I am the only candidate who stood up against the spending. We have 32 trillion in debt.” Then there is the Donald Trump factor. Trump is a long-time friend of the Justice family, but Mooney claims, “Honestly, I am the only candidate running who actually voted for Donald Trump in 2016 (when Justice was a Democrat), and 2020.”

 

“Air-to-Air Combat” -- This is going to get ugly and expensive. There are eight television markets that serve different portions of West Virginia, including Washington, DC, and Pittsburgh TV stations. The bigger the market, the higher the ad rates. The Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia is basically a suburb of Washington, DC, and is served by that market’s TV stations.  Morgantown, home of West Virginia University, is in the Pittsburgh TV market. These two regions are the fastest growing in West Virginia and are already big population centers. The battle for both will be rough.

 

“The Ohio Express” – Another close and contested Senate race will be in the Buckeye State. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio is seeking a fourth term. President Trump carried this state in 2016 and 2020, and many fellow Republicans believe they can flip this Senate seat. Two Republicans, including a well-known state senator, have declared, and another half-dozen are thinking about it. I am calling this race a definite toss-up and one that could give the GOP control of the Senate.

 

“A Nevada Gamble” – Republicans need a net gain of two seats to flip control of the U.S. Senate, and that’s a very reachable goal. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) Nevada is finishing her first term and is vulnerable. She won the seat in 2018, with a slim 50.4 percent of the vote. She will be the Democrat’s likely nominee. So far, three Republicans have declared. This past Tuesday, 2020 election denier Jim Marchant announced he was in. Marchant lost recent races for U.S. House and Secretary of State, but did serve a term in the State Assembly. Call me crazy, but I think the 2020 election is history and being a denier is not the path to any office. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton barely won here in 2016, as did Biden in 2020. It’s a toss-up “purple” state.

 

“Presidential Battle” – It wasn’t just the Senate candidates mixing it up this week. Former President Donald Trump sent out a fundraising email saying, “We’ve officially grown our commanding lead in the GOP primary to more than 40 POINTS while also leading Crooked Joe Biden by 4 points in the general election!” But the headline said he had a claim of an “Electoral Landslide.” While there is no precise definition of a “landslide” in politics, it’s generally agreed that we are talking 60-plus percent of the vote. By that math, you’d have to have 323 out of 538 Electoral College votes secured at this time. With 8 to 10 toss-up states, at least, that kind of math is unreliable this early in the game.

 

“Dems Weigh In” – Of course, you know the email I received from Donald Trump was not really from him. It was from an automated “bot” that spews out millions of these missives daily, and as a national political reporter, I get targeted. It’s an equal opportunity system. Thursday, House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries also “wrote” to me, calling out the opposition, “Team Extreme’ continues to spread dangerous election lies. While Democrats work to reduce the skyrocketing price of life-saving prescription drugs, ‘Team Extreme’ is trying to strip away affordable health care,” Jeffries wrote. Then he asks for a minimum $3 contribution. Both sides bombard my inbox daily.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

Related Articles

 

Enjoy this post? Share it with others.

 
 

Sign Up for the Daily Eblast

I want to follow on Twitter

I want to Like on Facebook