It’s Not Over ‘Til It’s Over – “The Sunday Political Brunch”
Sunday, December 04, 2022
The 2022 political season has one more knock-down-drag-out fight before we call it quits for the new year. But the runoff election this coming Tuesday, December 6th, in Georgia has national implications going forward. And there were some other big political headlines this week. Let’s all “brunch” on that buffet this weekend.
“Georgia on My Mind” – Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) Georgia won a special runoff election just shy of two years ago. In November he ran for a full, six-year term against former Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) Georgia. Neither man won 50 percent of the votes, as a third-party candidate garnered about two percent of the vote. Georgia election law prescribes a runoff between the top two, so that someone wins with more than 50 percent of the vote.
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“The History” – Runoff elections to guarantee someone wins majority are among the last vestiges of subliminal racism in the Deep South. Most states held them at some point in time, but I believe Georgia is the last one that still does. The concern in the Deep South was that in a crowded field of candidates, a Black candidate might win a primary. But when you narrowed it down to just two candidates in the runoff election – usually one Black and one White – the White candidate would easily win. The fascinating thing here is that both the Republican and Democrat left in the race are Black. When has that ever happened?
“The Georgia Polls” – It’s a dead heat. The latest Real Clear Politics composite poll has the race 48.8 percent for Walker to 47.4 percent for Warnock. It’s razor-thin. A poll from Emerson College says four percent of voters remain undecided. According to The Hill, which reported on the Emerson Poll, age could be a decisive factor. The poll shows that 55 percent of voters under age 50 favor Warnock, but 55 percent of people over age 50 prefer Walker. I maintain that Walker’s numbers on November 8 were boosted by the “coattail effect” of Gov. Brian Kemp’s successful reelection, and other Republican wins on the ballot. Their base drove Republican voters toward Walker. In this runoff, those voters are not a factor. This is a one-on-one battle, with no coattails on either side. I predict a Warnock win over Walker, 52-48 percent. Independent voters will swing this race.
“The Subtleties of Economic Numbers” – I think some of the latest economic numbers could be a last-minute wildcard in the Georgia race. Gas prices have fallen to a national average of $3.49 a gallon. I paid $3.15 a gallon here in West Virginia this week. There are predictions of prices under three dollars by Christmas. The quarterly Gross Domestic Product came in at 2.3 percent, suggesting we’re not in a recession, yet. Unemployment is dropping and hiring is up. And the Federal Reserve is indicating an easing in interest rate increases, though more are coming, but not as fast as the current rate hikes. My point is, if voters in Georgia are feeling any optimistic economic boost, that may favor Warnock. On the other hand, national trends like these often take weeks to “trickle down” to the average voter’s wallet. It may be “too little, too late” for many Georgia voters on Tuesday.
“What’s at Stake?” – Before the runoff, the Senate is 50 Democrats to 49 Republicans, so the Democrats will hold their majority no matter what (with VP Kamala Harris as their tiebreaker). If Warnock wins Tuesday, it will give them a two-vote pad of 51-49, or will it? For the past two years rebel Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia has been the swing vote on many issues, decidedly against the favor of the Biden White House. On occasion, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) Arizona has been a Manchin ally. So, if Manchin and Sinema decide to sync-up and join forces on key issues, they can still gum up the works of the Democrats’ majority. Yes, it’s less likely than in the past two years, but it remains a potentially big roadblock.
“Railing About the Rails” – We spend so much time talking about car and air travel in this country, that sometimes we just forget about the rail system and how crucial it is to our supply chain. In the Appalachian Region that I cover full-time, it’s crucial for delivering this area’s biggest “cash crop,” also known as coal. The American Railroad Association says 11 percent of all rail revenue is derived from transporting coal to the tune of $8 billion dollars a year. That translates to 3.3 million railroad cars packed with coal annually. A rail strike could be brutal to big coal-producing states. Gov. Jim Justice (R) West Virginia said, "And this could be a catastrophic move for this nation. Already right now, we have all kinds of freight issues. All kinds of issues, not just on coal, but on every product." Congress passed the bill to avert the strike and sent it to President Biden. Will it hold? Many disgruntled rail unions could still walk out anyway.
“Trump Troubles” – There were a couple of setbacks for Team Trump this week. On Thursday, a panel of three federal judges dismissed the Special Master appointed to review the raid and seizure of documents at Trump’s Mar-A-Lago estate in Florida. The seizure of evidence was ruled as justified (but, with appeals likely). At the same time, another federal judge ordered that top Trump White House lawyers must testify before a grand jury investigating the January 6th Capitol riots. Federal courts have already said aides and attorneys of former Vice President Mike Pence must testify. Pence himself might testify, too. Trump’s lawyers have argued that all of these people could claim “executive privilege” and not be forced to testify, but so far all have lost that argument. Stay tuned!
“Iowa of Bust?” – The week ended with the Democratic Party deciding to give South Carolina the “first in the nation” presidential primary in 2024. Call me a traditionalist, but I always liked the Iowa Caucuses and New Hampshire primary as the first one-two punch. I wonder what the Republican Party will do.
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