Politics: Where it’s Possible to Lose by Winning - “The Sunday Political Brunch” January 8, 2023

Sunday, January 08, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

I am in to my 46th year in broadcasting, and most of it has been spent covering politics. I have seen all kinds of crazy stuff over the years, but this week’s marathon vote for U.S. Speaker of the House may top it all. There was much fanfare when Republicans won control of the House by a narrow margin in November, but now all of that excitement and momentum may be lost. After 15 contentious ballots over five days, Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy was finally elected by the narrowest of margins. It will be interesting to see how much this may weaken the Republican leadership and agenda going forward. Let’s “brunch” on that this week

 

“Leaders Lead (and the also read Tea Leaves)” – I’ve studied leadership at the Masters and Doctoral level, but the best quote I ever heard about leadership came from political operative James Carville who said, “Great leaders can see around corners.” In other words, they have an innate sense of what might be coming, especially if it’s bad news. Consequently, they have their initial plan, and then perhaps alternate routes in case they hit some bad potholes. People were so certain the Titanic was unsinkable; they had no disaster plan. Knowing that a loss of just five votes could torpedo his speakership, Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R) California, appeared to not have a “Plan B” for when he hit the proverbial “political iceberg.”

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“Long Term Damage” – Republicans still control the House, but again that narrow five-vote margin looms. What are some other issues where they might go down to defeat if they can’t hold their caucus together? This sets a potentially bad “first out of the box” precedent. But some are trying to put a brave face on it. Rep. Alex Mooney (R) West Virginia said, “I know a lot of people are very critical right now. I think this discussion we are having will make the party healthier in the end.  I think we have to respect all points of views, work through some issues, and make sure this chamber works the way the founders of the government intended it. That we wield appropriations bills and defend our country, against frankly the onslaught of Joe Biden’s agenda right now.” We’ll see if fellow Republicans buy that Biden is the enemy, not McCarthy.

 

“’Spontaneous Deals’ are Best Planned in Advance” – There’s an adage in politics that, “You never call for a vote until you KNOW you have the votes!” In other words, you do what’s known as a “whip count” and find out where everyone stands. If you are ten votes short, you work the back channels for pet projects that might seal the deal. “Congressman, I understand you need a jammed highway in your district built from four to six lanes. Can I help?” Or “Congresswoman, I understand a college in your district wants to do more cancer research? What kinds of a grant do you need?” Look, at best it’s a passive form of bribery or horse trading, but that’s how stuff gets done in Washington, DC. Always has been, always will be. The classic movie “Lincoln” depicts DC business and political deals spot on!

 

“This Isn’t a Joke” – We’ve not had this type of fight for a speakership since the Civil War. While many Democrats and even some Republicans laugh from the sidelines, it is in fact a very serious matter. Our government is paralyzed at the moment. Here are some of the things that can’t get done without a Speaker of the House. No members of the House of Representatives can be sworn in, until there is a speaker. No committee assignments or chairmanships can be named.

 

“What’s the Fallout of This?” Rep-elect Ron Gallagher (R) Wisconsin said, “I’m a member of the House Intelligence Committee. I’m on the Armed Services Committee, and I can’t meet in the Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility to conduct essential business,” Gallagher said in a news conference. Right now, we’re in legislative paralysis which must be troubling to places depending on foreign aid, such as the Ukraine.

 

“New Faces Emerge” – Often during a political crisis, new people will appear out of seemingly nowhere. Rep, Byron Donalds (R) Florida was one of the alternative candidates offered up for the speakership. Donalds, was just elected to his third term, after serving the Florida House of Representatives. Donalds is an African American Republican who once described himself in a campaign ad saying he was a,  “Trump-supporting, gun-owning, liberty-loving, pro-life, politically incorrect Black man.” He also talked about his arrest as a young man for drug possession and deciding to get his life together “through the grace of God.” He won’t be speaker, but he is a guy to keep an eye on.

 

“A Senate Shocker” – On Thursday, U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) Michigan stunned a lot of people at home and inside the beltway, by announcing she would not seek reelection in 2024. Stabenow is in her fourth six-year term and probably would have been a shoo-in for another term. This is crucial with a Senate divided 51-49 in the Democrats' favor. Michigan has turned from reliably “blue” into more of a battleground state. Trump won Michigan in 2016, but Biden won it back in 2020.  I rate Michigan as a toss-up for president, and for U.S. Senate.

 

“Too Little, Too Late?” – The Biden Administration announced Thursday that it will instruct immigration officials will immediately turn away Cubans, Haitians and Nicaraguans who illegally cross the US-Mexico border. A lot of folks are going to say, “Where was that order almost two years ago when Biden took office?” The amount of illegal heroin substitute fentanyl that has crossed over the border and killed Americans in that time is staggering. Look for this to be a huge issue in the 2024 campaigns for the White House and Congress.

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