Primaries End with Calm Before Political Storm – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - September 25, 2022

Sunday, September 25, 2022

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: file

Okay, the primaries are over for 2022, and today marks 44 days until Election Day, November 8th. The trends are not boding well for the party in power, but is there enough time to turn the tide? Let’s “brunch” on that this week!

 

“Primary Lessons” – If I’ve learned one lesson over and over in the five decades I covered American politics, it’s that economic conditions trump all other issues. Economic decline put Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush out of the Oval Office, and a severe downturn prevented John McCain from winning the White House. This past week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three basis points for the third time this year. Inflation, while declining over the past two months, remains at a near 40-year-high. The inflation report due out on October 13th will be the last one before Election Day. It will be crucial and decisive.

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“And There’s More Bad Economic News” -- Gas prices I paid this week were at $3.49, down sharply from the $5.00 a gallon in June, but still well above the $2.53 average when President Joe Biden took office. So, things have improved marginally in the past few months, but probably not enough to help Democrats who control both chambers in Congress as we approach the midterms. Fair or not, the party in power usually bears the brunt of the blame.

 

“Manchin in the Middle, AGAIN!” – This should be a surprise to no one. Senator Joe Manchin is in the middle of the effort to pass a CR, or Continuing Resolution, to prevent a government shutdown on October 1st. For his part, Manchin wants permitting for the completion of the Mountain Valley Pipeline which is set to run from the rich natural gas fields of West Virginia to a facility near Roanoke, Virginia, and then off to domestic and foreign markets. One goal is to cut spiking natural gas prices, Manchin said. "So, when do you ever see that we’re going to change the permitting, so we can have the American people get relief from the high cost?” Manchin pondered.  “When you take a pipeline, the Mountain Valley Pipeline, nothing puts more product into the market quicker and helps relieve the shortages that we have right now," Manchin added.

 

“Not So Fast, say Environmentalists” – The Mountain Valley Pipeline, or MVP, is only 20-miles from completion. Environmentalists worry about pollution and even went to federal court to get the project shut down for a time. Senator Bernie Sanders (I) Vermont, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D) Massachusetts, are among the biggest critics in Congress. “Mister President, I rise this morning to express my strong opposition to the so-called ‘side-deal’ that the fossil fuel industry is pushing to make it easier for them to pollute the environment and destroy the planet,” Sanders said on the Senate floor. The problem for Sanders and other environmentalists is that Manchin has the support of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and President Biden, who needed Manchin’s support to pass the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. Like it or not, that’s how business often gets done in the Capitol.

 

“The Dynamics of a Government Shutdown” – Another problem for Democrats is the Mountain Valley Pipeline deal is part of the proposed Continuing Resolution to prevent a federal government shutdown on October 1st. Not only are key liberal Senate Democrats against the deal, more than seventy House Democrats also consider it a poison pill and may oppose the CR to keep the government open. Right now, if the government shuts down over this single issue, it will be easy for the Republicans to blame Biden, Schumer, and Manchin for crafting the provision. I predict the pipeline gets pulled from the CR at the 11th hour.

 

“Trump’s Troubles” – This past week, Attorney General Letitia James (D) New York, filed a $250 million dollar lawsuit against former President Donald Trump, and his three eldest children, Donald Jr., Ivanka, and Eric. James said the Trumps inflated their personal wealth to get larger loans for which they would otherwise not qualify. The AG called the Trumps’ actions, "persistent and repeated business fraud." In addition to the fines, she wants the Trumps banned from operating any businesses in New York State.

 

“The Potential Fallout” – Now that the primary season is over for 2022, we can repeat the analysis of the Washington Examiner, which reported of 236 Trump-endorsed candidates nationwide, 217 won and just 19 lost. That’s a 93 percent success rate. I mention this because I spoke with a candidate who was expecting a Trump endorsement soon for the November general election. “Now I don’t know if I want it,” he told me. “What if Trump gets indicted?” he pondered. Trump’s troubles have emboldened other GOP candidates, especially after the raid on Mar-a-Lago that many Republicans - both Trump supporters and critics - felt was highly politicized and unfair. Will a backlash motivate Republican and independent voters in November? Or will some Trump-backed candidates face “guilt by association?” Stay tuned!

 

“Trump Candidate Gets Trumped” – In the internet age, it’s easier than ever to track down public records on just about anyone. That’s why people (especially candidates) need to be careful about “resume padding.” A classic case in point, is Ohio Congressional candidate J.P. Majewski, who campaigned on being a combat veteran during the War on Terror. Now, according to the Associated Press, Majewski was in fact in the Air Force servicing U.S. aircraft based in Qatar, an ally nation where we staged our planes. Look, that’s noble enough service that would earn the respect of voters. You signed up, wore the uniform, and did your job. People would salute that, even if you did not serve in combat. This Trump-backed candidate had a real shot to defeat a longtime Democrat incumbent, but that hope may vanish. In a House where the majority may be decided by a single vote, this was an epic fail.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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