Spinning the Spin of the Trump Arraignment – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - June 18, 2023

Sunday, June 18, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: White House

Are you dizzy, or is it just me? We all knew the arraignment was coming this past Tuesday in Miami, regarding the 37-count federal indictment against former President Donald Trump. It played out on the network airwaves Tuesday afternoon, and then into the “talking heads” in the evening. A lot of it was insightful, and a lot of it was blather. We are in uncharted waters; we can all agree on that. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Trump’s Response” – “Today we witnessed the most evil and heinous abuse of power in the history of our country, a very sad thing to watch,” said former President Trump. He added, “A corrupt sitting president had his top political opponent arrested on fake and fabricated charges of which he and numerous other presidents would be guilty, right in the middle of a presidential election in which he’s losing very badly.”

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“Other Candidates Weigh-In” – A lot of Republican officeholders and candidates circled in support of Trump, but it was far from unanimous. In fact, some of his GOP presidential rivals really teed off. Former Trump Vice President Mike Pence called the allegations, “A very serious matter.” And Pence added, “I cannot defend what is alleged.” Former Gov. Chris Christie (R) called Trump a “loser” who was acting like a “child.” Trump’s chief rival is Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, a former U.S. Navy officer. DeSantis said, “If I would have taken classified (documents) to my apartment, I would have been court-martialed in a New York minute.”

 

“The Trump ‘Heartland’” – I live and work in the Tri-State region of West Virginia, Ohio, and Kentucky. Donald Trump carried all three states in 2016 and again in 2020. In West Virginia, for example, he took 69 percent of the popular vote in both elections. People love him and are not inclined to leave him. He has similar pockets of support in other regions of the United States. The question is, can he sew those various political tapestries into a big enough quilt to get him back into the White House?

 

“The Partisan Lines are Drawn” – The Tri-State has a bunch of battleground races shaping up for 2024, including U.S. Senate, and House seats, as well as seats in governor’s mansions. The concern on both sides is, does the presidential race have a positive or negative “coattail effect” that can help or hurt each party, down-ballot from the presidential race? With control of the U.S. Senate and House up for grabs in 2024, the top of the ticket matters.

 

“Drilling Down on the State Level” – While it may on the surface seem just a national issue, it does trickle down and can have an impact on state and local races. So far, most reaction has been along party lines. "The charges against him are very serious. We're not just talking about misplaced paperwork here. We're talking about highly sensitive, classified documents, that if they fell into the wrong hands could jeopardize the lives of men and women in uniform," said Del. Mike Pushkin (D) Kanawha County, who is also the West Virginia Democrat Party Chair. Atty. Gen. Patrick Morrisey, (R) West Virginia, said on the other hand, "This is a political witch hunt. And I've been deeply disturbed by what I am seeing. And also, that there is a double standard that's involved. They've been targeting President Trump from day one. That's deeply disturbing to me." Morrisey is now running for West Virginia governor.

 

“The Jury Pool” – The Department of Justice may have taken a real roll of the dice on this one. It had the option of filing charges in Washington, DC because the items were removed from the White House. Or it had the option of indicting him in Florida because the items were seized at his home in Mar-A-Lago, Florida. The location could have an impact on the jury pool. Trump is fairly popular in Florida, a state he carried in both 2016 and 2020. On the other hand, he is very unpopular in Washington, DC, which voted heavily against him. Several legal analysts I watched on the news Tuesday night believe Trump can get a more sympathetic jury in Florida.

 

“The Florida Trifecta” – Florida is critical in 2024. No question. But now we have a Florida three-way race. Mayor Francis Suarez (R) Miami has declared for the GOP presidential nomination in 2014. “Suarez, who?” Many people outside of Florida may say that, but he could be a spoiler, if nothing else. Here’s the deal – Suarez is now the third Floridian in the race, along with former President Donald Trump, and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida.

 

“Why This Darkhorse Matters” – Suarez, age 44, is the second Cuban American Mayor of Miami, as his dad Xavier Suarez (R) Miami was the first. The Suarez family is legend, with two parents and 14 siblings escaping dictator Fidel Castro’s violent, oppressive regime that imprisoned some family members in the late 1950s and early 1960s. The family has lived the American dream. Suarez’s first cousin is Rep. Alex Suarez Mooney (R) West Virginia, who is now running for U.S. Senate after 10 years in the House. Cubans especially, but many other Latinos in Florida are rock-ribbed Republicans. A three-way vote in the GOP Sunshine State primary could tilt on the Hispanic constituency. If Suarez somehow wins an upset in the early Florida primary, he’s in for the long haul.

 

“The DeSantis v. Newsom Dance” – I have to revisit what may have been the weirdest item from last week when I simply ran out of column space. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida sent two planes filled with migrants to California. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California was not amused. Newsom even threatened to file kidnapping charges against DeSantis. Of course, a lot of this is posturing. Newsom is clearly thinking about a presidential run, and if Biden falters, he could jump into the Democratic primary. Perhaps the more viable scenario is a DeSantis v. Newsom race in 2028.

 

“Inflation Deflation: Whom it Helps?” – The Consumer Price Index was released this week, and inflation is now down to four percent. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Both could still be lower, but after spiking to near-record highs during COVID-19, the numbers are way back down and stable. This bodes well for incumbents in both parties, but it’s especially good news for any incumbent president. Remember, the economy is most often the key issue in presidential races.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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