The 2024 Political Earthquake Hits Two Years Early – “The Sunday Political Brunch”

Sunday, August 14, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: GoLocal

Folks, all bets are off. The whole dynamic of the 2022 Congressional midterm elections, and the 2024 presidential nomination fight, just spun on a dime. The reason? The unprecedented FBI raid on the Florida home of former President Donald Trump. But just remember, in politics, the fallout can cut both ways. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

    

“Where Were You When the Raid Came?” – As a former professional musician, one of my favorite rock and roll acts from the 1980s was the new wave group, Graham Parker & the Rumor. They had an underground hit, “Where Were You When the Raid Came?” It was a dramatic riff on the scatter of where everyone ran on a big bust. Can you imagine the panic among staff at Mar-a-Lago when the FBI showed up Monday, even though we understand no Trump family members were actually home? Of course, I’m talking dramatic optics here, which is interesting to speculate, but it’s the legal consequence of what might have been found, or not found, that truly matters. On Thursday, Attorney General Merrick Garland confirmed that he asked for the search warrant. Will there be criminal charges? Stay tuned!

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“The Misuse of the Justice Department and FBI” – There are many legal and Constitutional issues raised here about whether the White House pressured (or told) executive branch agencies of the U.S. Department of Justice, and by extension, the FBI, to raid the former president’s home. Nearly everyone on the GOP side is calling it an abuse of executive power. It’s an argument that could grow by leaps and bounds.

 

“Sandy Baby!” – For the last few days, I’ve heard partisans, political analysts and media types saying, “Nothing like this has ever happened before. It’s unprecedented!” Now that may be true of current and former presidents, but there are examples of parallel cases that could set a legal precedent here. Let me remind you of Sandy Berger, who served as National Security Advisor under President Bill Clinton. In 2005 Berger was sentenced to two years of probation for taking classified items from the National Archives during the Clinton years. Similarly, there are reports some of the Trump documents seized were classified and therefore belonged to the National Archives We may be watching a rerun, albeit on a much grander scale.

 

“Declare for 2024 Now?” – There are several schools of thought on if, and when, former President Trump should announce a 2024 bid for the White House. Up until the raid, it looked highly likely that Republicans would gain control of the Senate and House in 2022, with a significant number of candidates riding to victory with Trump endorsements, making him a “kingmaker.” I had heard Trump was going to announce his decision on, or near, Labor Day. Now there is pressure for Trump to announce sooner, due to the anger stirred up by this raid.

 

“The Power of the Motivated Voter – The Democrats” – I’ve preached for months here that the leaked – then real – overturn of Roe v Wade, would be a big motivator for Democrats at the polls in 2022 and 2024. Republicans got what they wanted. What the disaffected want, is for the angry voter to actually show up and cast a ballot. We saw evidence of that in Kansas last week. Democrats are an obscure minority in this very “red state,” yet they turned out in far more significant numbers than the GOP and defeated an effort to outlaw abortion in state law. That’s motivated clout!

 

“The Power of the Motivated Voter – The Republicans” – Well, the very same backlash may face Democrats, if not only in 2022, but in 2024 as well. Republicans were already planning to run on inflation, record-high gas prices, southern border surges and international crises in Ukraine and Afghanistan. Quite honestly, it was shaping up to be a “red” bloodbath in November with Republicans seizing control of the U.S. Senate, House, or both. Well now, the FBI raid on Trump may stir an even harsher backlash. Conservatives were already angry, but now the FBI raid has made them red-hot furious. Like Democrats on abortion, Republican allies of Trump now become the motivated voters. In politics, an angry rattlesnake can bite back!

 

“The Hunter Biden Factor" – Was the Mar-a-Lago raid a preemptive strike? There are many political operatives and legal analysts, (yes, many with a partisan bent), who feel this is tit-for-tat. They believe presidential son Hunter Biden will also be indicted on federal charges over his questionable foreign business dealings. Good questions all, so stay tuned! It’s a fascinating dilemma!

 

“This Week’s Primaries” – There were two intriguing races this week. In Wisconsin, we saw another Trump v. Pence matchup in the GOP primary for governor. Former President Trump backed 2020 election denier Tim Michels, while former VP Pence backed one-time Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) Wisconsin. Trump-backed Michels beat Pence-backed Kleefisch 47 to 42 percent. Michels faces incumbent Gov. Tony Evers (D) Wisconsin in November. Remember, Wisconsin was decisive in backing Trump in 2016 but rejected him and backed Biden in 2020. It's a crucial state for both sides. Meanwhile, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) Washington who voted to impeach Trump, lost her primary race to her Trump-backed opponent Joe Kent.

 

“The Economic Roller Coaster” – This week, the inflation rate dropped from 9.1% to 8.5%. In response, the Federal Reserve signaled it might only raise interest rates 0.5 percent this month, instead of the 0.75 percent of the past two months. The Dow Jones responded with a 550+ point jump on Wednesday. Gas prices have dropped from 5 to 4 dollars per gallon in the past six weeks. Wow, what a bargain! But folks, while all this seems like good news for the White House, it’s not. Inflation dropping 0.6 points in one month is like saying it’s the impact of, “three people leaving China.” Yes, the trend is going in the direction Democrats would like, but there will only be two more economic reports like this before Election Day. My guess? Too little, too late! The “Inflation Recovery Act of 2022” passed the House Friday, and President Biden will sign it. Will it work? There are fewer than 90 days until the midterm elections.

 

“Just My Gut” – Given all the topsy turvy events of this week, here’s my prediction: Neither Joe Biden’s nor Donald Trump’s names will appear on the November 2024 presidential ballot. Challenge me!!! And who is waiting in the wings on both sides?

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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