The Last Minute 2022 Campaign Push – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 30, 2022

Sunday, October 30, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

The “Brunch” spent part of the past week in Illinois, “The Land of Lincoln,” watching Campaign 2022 intensify, before its final days. There are some last-minute strategies campaigns can use to tighten a race, so let’s “brunch” on that and the week’s other political news.

 

“Abortion, Abortion, Abortion” – Folks, I will confess that I have never seen anything like this. I spent last Friday night in Chicago and my jaw dropped. I have never seen saturation bombing of an issue – to the total exclusion of any other issue – as I saw on Chicago television. There were no ads for car dealers, banks, or local restaurants. Every TV ad was for a politician in any number of local races, espousing their position on abortion. Many were supporting reproductive rights, and many were opposed. The point is, races for State Assembly, State Senate, City Mayor, County Board, and probably even “Dog Catcher” were being framed in the aftermath of overturning Roe v. Wade. It was as if there are no other issues in this campaign. Not inflation, not crime, not education. Just abortion.

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“The Economy” – As I have been saying for months, I believe the midterm Congressional elections will come down to the state of the economy. This week there was mixed news. The Biden Administration must be pleased with the 2.6 percent growth rate in Gross Domestic Product, GDP. That may be a sign there is no recession, or if there is, it might be short-lived. On the other hand, mortgage interest rates rose to 7.0 percent, a doubling from earlier this year, and a high since 2002.

 

“Pennsylvania Senate Map” – Tuesday night marked the one and only debate between Pennsylvania U.S. Senate candidates, Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) Pennsylvania and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) Pennsylvania. This is one of many tight Senate races that will determine which party controls the upper chamber of Congress, presently tied at 50-50. I see Pennsylvania and Nevada as the two likely races that will ultimately lead to control of the Senate, (and warning, we could again tie at 50-50).

 

“Pennsylvania Senate Loyalties”—The Keystone State Senate debate certainly zeroed in on key flashpoint issues, such as each candidate’s presidential nomination support in 2024. “I would support Donald Trump if he decided to run for president, but this is bigger than one candidate,” Dr. Oz said. Fetterman countered, “If he does choose to run, I would absolutely support him (Biden), but ultimately, that’s ultimately only his choice,” Fetterman said. “At the end of the day, I believe Joe Biden is a good family man, and I believe he stands for the union way of life.”

 

“Fetterman’s Health” – Democratic nominee John Fetterman had a stroke five months ago, and by his own admission, clearly still has speech and hearing challenges. “It’s OK to have a medical issue — you just have to be transparent about it,” one Democratic operative told NBC News. “I had a stroke. He’s never let me forget that,” Fetterman said of Oz. Fetterman added, “And I might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down and I’m going to keep coming back up.” But Fetterman spoke haltingly at times and seemed to have trouble focusing thoughts at other times. I am not being critical here, because I have seen great stroke recovery in my own family. But to those who’ve not been through it, Fetterman may have come off confused and unsteady on his feet. This race was a toss-up before the debate, but now some may view Fetterman as weak. On the other hand, if Oz (a doctor) appears to quickly to criticize and attack, that could appear unseemly and insensitive for a medical professional. The outcome of this very close race weighs in the balance.

 

“Clarence Thomas v Ginny Thomas” – I’ll be honest. As much as I condemned the January 6th riots at the U.S. Capitol, I didn’t much buy the notion that election denier Ginny Thomas, a well-known DC staffer turned lobbyist, could really influence any outcomes. She is, of course, the wife of U.S. Supreme Court Clarence Thomas. But this past week, Justice Thomas issued a ruling that U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) South Carolina, did not have to participate in state hearings in Georgia about the ballot count in that contested state, which supporters of former president Donald Trump had challenged. I am not saying Justice Thomas did anything wrong here. In fact, he may be on solid legal ground. But the old saying, “Any appearance of a perceived conflict of interest is just as bad as an actual conflict of interest, holds true.” Had I been Justice Thomas, I would have recused myself and let another justice issue the order. Innocent as it may have been, the whole thing just looks and bad!

 

“Alaska Censure of McConnell” – Well, in life and in politics, the old phrase, “Truth is stranger than fiction” often is spot on. Let’s talk about the state of Alaska. This week the state Republican Party took the unusual move to censure Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Kentucky, the U.S. Senate Minority Leader. The state party, and former President Trump, are backing challenger Kelly Tshibaka, in her race against Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) Alaska. Murkowski, whose dad Frank also served as Governor and U.S. Senator, is a loyal ally of McConnell. The state party, perhaps suffering from decades of Murkowski fatigue, wants to breathe new blood into the party. Remember, it was former Gov. Sarah Palin (R) Alaska, who took on and defeated Republican Gov. Frank Murkowski. Forget the Democrats, this state has spunky intra-party politics. One Republican leader in Alaska simply told McConnell to, “butt out” of the state’s politics.

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