The Presidential Parade Progresses – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - May 28, 2023

Sunday, May 28, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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U.S. Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), PHOTO: Presidential Announcement

I’m beginning to feel like I’m the only person in the political field who is not running for president in 2024. A couple more jumped in over the past few days, and more are thinking about it. Late Friday came word that Gov. Doug Burgum (R), North Dakota was getting in. And we could also have a serious third-party bid next year. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“Run, Run, Ron DeSantis” – To no one’s surprise, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida announced Wednesday night that he indeed would be a candidate for the Republican nomination for president in 2024. DeSantis made the announcement on Twitter, with that company’s owner, Elon Musk. We should be clear, Musk has not endorsed anyone yet, including the Florida Governor. But the joint appearance is intriguing. I’ve argued here often that I believe Twitter to be a greatly overrated platform, with little real political influence. It delivers a lot of chatter but ultimately doesn’t deliver votes, because after all, every candidate has a Twitter account.

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“Who is DeSantis?” – DeSantis is just 44 years old, and in his second term as Governor of Florida. Before that, he served three terms in the U.S. House of Representatives. He has an undergraduate degree from Yale and a law degree from Harvard. He then served 15 years in the U.S. Navy, as a military lawyer, and is a veteran of the Iraq War. It’s an impressive resume on paper, but he also has a history on controversial issues such as gay rights, abortion, and an ongoing battle with the Disney corporation’s governmental arrangement in Florida. In short, he’s a lightning rod in politics, and that can cut both ways.

 

“What Say You DeSantis?” – While the announcement with Elon Musk was a potential political gold mine, it was a technical disaster. Twitter was probably overrun with curiosity, and the audio feed cut out and seized up often. It was “bad TV on the internet.” He said, “American decline is not inevitable, it is a choice. And we should choose a new direction, a path that will lead to American revitalization.”  DeSantis added, “I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback.” Many people who tuned in got a message that fell on deaf ears because they couldn’t hear the message. This was a huge setback.

 

“Does Tim Scott Have a Shot?” – Sen. Tim Scott (R) South Carolina also announced that he, too, was running for the 2024 GOP nomination for president. Scott, the only Republican African American in the Senate, has a deep political base in the South and is highly regarded in his party. He has a compelling backstory. “I was raised in a single-parent household in North Charleston, South Carolina. My mom worked 16-hour days to keep food on the table and a roof over our heads. I got my first job, changing oil at a gas station, when I was 13. And I wouldn’t ask for it to be any other way.” The story has obviously played well in South Carolina, but can it play nationwide?

 

“Who is Tim Scott?” – Tim Scott is 57 years old. He served oneterm in the U.S. House from 2011 to 2013 but then was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina in 2013 to replace Sen. Jim DeMint who had resigned. Scott was reelected in 2014, 2016, and 2022. Scott, who was in the insurance and financial industry, is a graduate of Charleston Southern University. He is the only African American Republican to serve in both the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. He also served on the Charleston City Council and the State House of Representatives.

 

“Manchin in the Middle” – I spent some good quality time this past week with Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia. He says he will decide by the end of this year whether or not to seek reelection to the Senate. But Manchin is also contemplating a third-party presidential bid. “Can there be a moderate? Can there be a centrist? Whether it be me or anybody else, can we bring people to the middle? Manchin pondered. He added, “The main thing is the movement. I’m tired. I’m wore out every day going through what I see happening in Washington. And we can’t basically put our country first. This is not about being a Democrat or being a Republican. It’s about being an American and making a better opportunity for everybody. And I think they’ve missed the point.” My gut says Manchin will run for the White House, not the Senate.

 

“Third Party Appeal” – But can Manchin or any other third-party candidate win? Both Trump and Biden have the same problem. A significant number of people in their own parties wish they would go away. A recent NBC News poll said 70 percent of Americans thought Biden should not run for reelection. That total included 51 percent of Democrats surveyed. And 60 percent of voters said Donald Trump should not be president again, including 33 percent of Republicans. So, does this mutual dissatisfaction open the door for a third-party run for the moderate Manchin? “There’s a lot of things on the table right now, because you’ve two people it looks like they’re in the lead, whether it be President Biden or former President Trump. And both sides are not enamored at all with them, but that might be what your choices are,” Senator Manchin told me. He included himself in that speculation.

 

“Third Party History” – The history of third-party candidates in my lifetime has been interesting. In 1968 Gov. George Wallace (D) Alabama ran as an independent. He won five states and carried 14 percent of the popular vote, winning 46 Electoral College votes. Had he not run, most of those votes likely would have gone to fellow Democrat Hubert Humphrey, but if they did, it would still not have been enough to beat Richard Nixon. In 1992, independent Ross Perot carried 19 percent of the popular vote but won no states, and thus no Electoral College votes. Wallace was an anti-civil rights movement Democrat from the Deep South. Perot was an anti-establishment Texas Republican. Neither had enough of a constituency. But Manchin is different. He is a centrist and a moderate and appeals to a lot of independent voters. In an anti-Trump, anti-Biden year, he may just have a shot in a very divided country.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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