The Scramble to Seize Senate Control – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 16, 2022

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

The U.S. Senate is presently tied at 50-50. The Senate President, VP Kamala Harris, is the tiebreaker. We’ve been under this standoff for almost two years but come Election Day, one party will likely emerge with clear-cut control of the upper chamber in Congress. Over the next few weeks, we’ll look at some of the key races on that path. Remember, just one key race could tilt the balance. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“The Landscape” – This entire fight for control will be focused on the following ten swing states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina. Democrats have something of a mathematical advantage, as they are defending fourteen incumbent seats. Republicans are defending twenty-one seats. The more seats to defend, the higher the risk.

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“Football Footwork” – You might think the following fact is insignificant, but it is not. In fact, it’s crucial. I grew up and started my career in Wisconsin, so I noticed something last week that others may have missed. In college football, Wisconsin played Northwestern on ESPN, with a nationwide audience. Both schools have tons of alumni from the State of Wisconsin. That might explain why the majority of TV ads during the game were from Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), and his challenger Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D-WI). Even ads for Gov. Tony Evers (D) Wisconsin and his Republican challenger Tim Michels ran all game long. Yes, it’s a local game but these races have nationwide implications, so a donor pitch across the country makes sense. I’ve never seen a national football game, so dominated by local political ads. Wow!

 

“Battleground Ohio”– As mentioned, one of the most competitive Senate races in the nation is in Ohio, a critical presidential swing state. Sen. Rob Portman (R) is retiring. Republicans have held this seat since 1999, when Democrat John Glenn stepped down. The Republican nominee is best-selling “Hillbilly Elegy” author J.D. Vance, who rose from Appalachian poverty and a drug-addicted mother to a degree from Yale Law School. He is facing Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), a 20-year veteran of Congress, who ran for president in 2020, and even challenged Rep. Nancy Pelosi for Speaker of the House. A recent poll shows 46 percent for Ryan, 45 percent for Vance, and 9 percent undecided. This race could be the election night nailbiter.

 

“Framing the Issues – The Economy” -- As I have been predicting for weeks, Republican U.S. Senate candidates would frame economic news as the biggest issue. With inflation at a 40-year high, Vance says the blame doesn’t stop at the White House door. He accuses his 20-year Member of Congress opponent of guilt by association. Vance said, “Tim Ryan has put on a costume where he pretends to be a reasonable moderate. But in fact — he said he stands up to his own party. The last two Congresses, Tim, you voted for Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden 100%. You consistently toe the party line on every single issue.”

 

“Framing the Issues – Abortion” – As I have been forecasting for weeks, Democrats would frame abortion as the key issue after the overturn of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion. This became quite obvious in the Ohio U.S. Senate debate this past week. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), the nominee for U.S. Senate, said, “I will have a litmus test on Roe v Wade, I’ll have a litmus test on the same-sex marriage, I’ll have a litmus test on birth control. We can’t keep going down this road of taking away rights.” Since the Senate is the only body that gets to vote on Supreme Court nominees, this is the only place where another reversal, of the Roe reversal could take place. Watch for this focus in all other contested Senate races.

 

“The Las Vegas Gamble” – One of the biggest toss-up Senate races is in Nevada. Incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) Nevada is being challenged by Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R-NV). He is the grandson of legendary leader Sen. Paul Laxalt (R-NV), who was one of President Ronald Reagan’s key lieutenants. With a booming Hispanic population, you might think Cortez Masto would have the edge, but the latest CNN poll shows 48 percent for Laxalt, 46 percent for Masto, with 6 percent undecided. This will be a race to watch election night, as late results pour in from the West Coast. This may be the race that seals control of the U.S. Senate.

 

“Bad News for Democrats” – The last monthly inflation report before the election came out Thursday, showing that the September inflation rate had dropped to 8.2 percent, from 8.3 percent in August. That was down from 8.5 percent in July, and 9.1 percent in June. Yes, it’s dropping marginally, but how do you sell that as “good news?” Overall, it’s the highest inflation in 40 years. No one likes paying more for stuff, especially people who vote. Since Democrats hold the White House, and control of the U.S. Senate and House, this is BAD, BAD news. Frankly, I don’t know how they counter it successfully.

 

“Bad News for Republicans” – On Thursday, the U.S. Supreme Court declined to get involved in the raid and seizure of classified documents from former President Donald Trump’s estate in Mar-a-Lago, Florida. Then, the Congressional January 6th Riot Committee issued subpoenas for Mr. Trump to give sworn testimony about that day, (which I doubt will ever happen). But the stench of that day could have a backlash in at least some of the hundreds of races where Trump has endorsed candidates in 2022. Either voters will hold their noses out of loyalty, or distance themselves from the culpability of being responsible for the violence. It remains to be seen. But in close races, the Trump “stench,” rather than endorsement, could prove to be a detriment.

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