When Politics Hits Crisis Mode on Steroids – “The Sunday Political Brunch” - October 15, 2023

Sunday, October 15, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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PHOTO: Colin LLoyd, Unsplash

Call it the “perfect storm” of political events where two major political events, seemingly unrelated to each other, actually are. That’s where we find ourselves in the latest political soup, with the attacks on Israel, and the fight to find a new Speaker of the U.S. House. Let’s “brunch” on that this week.

 

“The Horrors of Israel” – The brutal Hamas attacks on Israel will now become a huge campaign issue in 2024, both for presidential and congressional candidates. I know that sounds insensitive and unseemly in the face of so many deaths, but that’s the reality of our modern-day electoral process. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) Ohio said, “These acts of terrorism are an affront to human rights and our shared values of peace and democracy. I want to be clear: Israel is our oldest, strongest ally in the region and has the right to exist and the right to self-defense.”

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“The Critics” – The attacks happened Saturday. President Biden did not address the nation until Tuesday afternoon, which critics said was too long. I won’t take sides here. A president has vast intelligence information, that may suggest an immediate response might inflame more violence against innocent people. And I think U.S. presidents, regardless of party, have consulted and deferred to Israeli leaders on these issues trying not to inflame these situations.

 

"The President in His Own Words” – “This attack has brought to the surface painful memories and the scars left by a millennia of antisemitism and genocide of the Jewish people. So, in this moment, we must be crystal clear: We stand with Israel.  We stand with Israel.  And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself, and respond to this attack,” President Biden said.

 

“Watching Manchin Respond” – Just by sheer coincidence, I had Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia scheduled for a 1:30 p.m. interview on Tuesday. Early that day we got notified that President Biden would address the nation at 1 p.m. I invited Sen. Manchin to watch the president’s speech in our conference room, while I videotaped his reaction. It was sobering and stunning at the same time. The Senator was clearly moved by the horrific details President Biden provided and was paled and shocked by what he heard.  "I mean when I first heard him report that they found children and babies beheaded. What human could do this? What was the rage or hatred in the person's heart to be able to create these types of atrocities?"

 

“House Leadership Fight” – It’s been a roller coaster ride, with no end in sight. Early last week Rep. Jim Jordan (R) Ohio and Rep. Steve Scalise (R) Louisiana went before the House Republican Caucus, to argue why each should be the new speaker. Scalise, the current House majority leader won on a vote of 113-99. But you need 217 votes on the full House floor to become speaker, and by Thursday night Scalise could not muster that total and he dropped out. Rep. Alex Mooney (R) who backed Rep. Jordan, but is also friends with Rep. Scalise, hopes for unity. Mooney told me, “I think the country's looking for someone who's known to be willing to fight back against Biden."

 

“The Fallout” – Without a speaker, the House cannot conduct much business let alone pass legislation. In a word, gridlock. This week I spoke to Rep. Carol Miller (R) West Virginia who said, "The most important thing we can do is have unity as a party. There is an awful lot we need to accomplish. We have to get more appropriations bills passed. We need to secure our border. We need to cut our spending. And now with the horror that's going on in Israel, we have to be strong leaders in support of Israel." Jordan will likely spend the weekend trying to find the 217 members to vote for him.

 

“Government Shutdown Looms… Again” – In case you are keeping track at home, Congress gave itself a 45-day extension to keep the government from shutting down. That was two weekends ago so we’re already sitting here with 31 days to go, with no House Speaker to negotiate, so no end in sight. I predict we will walk right up to the deadline date of November 17, with all the previous gloom and doom predictions before a final deal is made. Congress does not want to be in session on Thanksgiving or Christmas trying to fix this.

 

“Newsom v DeSantis Debate” – Folks, I am so looking forward, a wee bit far ahead, to the November 30, 2023, Fox News Debate between Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) California and Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida. I predict these two will be their respective party’s nominees in 2028, but that clash could actually happen sooner. If President Biden and/or former President Trump falter, these two are poised to be the nominees in 2024. The showdown could happen sooner than you think.

 

“Hurd That?” – Former Rep. Will Hurd (R) Texas has dropped out of the GOP presidential primary race. “Who?” and “What?” you say. Yes, he did not spark much interest, and never had enough votes to qualify for the debate stage. But this guy remains one to watch down the road. Hurd is a 46-year-old bi-racial Republican. He served three terms in the House, and prior to that was a CIA agent for nine years. He got a lot of media coverage while in the House and generally good buzz. As an African American male from the GOP “must win” state of Texas, he is viable for several election cycles to come, perhaps U.S. Senator or Texas Governor first? With his departure, he has endorsed former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina for president. I am still betting Haley is Trump’s VP pick should he be renominated.

 

“GOP Diversity” – Will Hurd is the second GOP candidate for president to bow out. The other was Mayor Francis Suarez (R) Miami. The two men of color in a Republican Party trying to diversify its base were barely a blip on the radar screen, so both quit. Black Sen. Tim Scott is still in the race.  And you still have two Asian Americans, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy making buzz in this race, so I don’t think the GOP is as exclusively White as it once was.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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