Will New Trump Troubles Spark More Campaigns? - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - July 23, 2023

Sunday, July 23, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former President Donald Trump PHOTO: YouTube CNN

More legal troubles appear head Donald Trump’s way. And while it doesn’t seem to worry him outwardly, you have to worry about the GOP base, and independents attracted to him. Will they bolt? Will they seek other GOP candidates or moderates? Or could there be some third-party attraction? It’s all on the table, so let’s “brunch on that this week!”

 

“Trump Targeted Again” – Former President Donald Trump took to social media Tuesday to break the news that had received another “target letter” from Department of Justice Special Counsel Jack Smith. It was to notify Trump that he was the target of potential criminal indictments related to the January 6, 2021, post-2020 election certification at the U.S. Capitol that day. Scores were arrested, many were injured, and untold damage was done to the Capitol. Rioters came within arms-length of harming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice-President Mike Pence. Target letters should be called telegraph letters because they always mean a criminal indictment. So, expect a third round of charges against the former president. Is he cooked? Of course not!

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“The GOP Foes Response?” – Trump has about ten challengers for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, but he does not feel concerned. On the other hand, some of them see an opening to gain ground and lash out at Trump. “The rest of this primary election is going to be in reference to Trump: it’s going to be about lawsuits; it’s going to be about legal fees; it’s going to be about judges; and it’s just going to continue to be a further and further distraction,” former Gov Nikki. Haley (R) South Carolina said. “And that’s why I am running, is because we need a new generational leader. We can’t keep dealing with this drama.”

 

“Third-Party Options” – This past Monday, the No Labels organization held a town hall meeting in New Hampshire to push the concept of fielding a viable third-party ticket. On the stage were Sen. Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia and former Gov. John Huntsman (R) Utah. The two men became close friends while serving as governors at the same time. While they are not declared candidates, or a ticket yet, Senator Manchin said, “What we’re here for is to explain to you, that we need options. And the options may be moving the parties. Which have receded to their, I will call extreme right and extreme left. And that’s not who we are. It’s not where we’ve come from. It’s not the country that we are.”

 

“Is Huntsman in the Hunt?” -- “What you learn from the people of New Hampshire is very real. They want substance. They don’t want style, they want substance,” said former Governor Huntsman, who added that Manchin told him, “We’ve both been governors. We’ve been practitioners of crossing the aisle, doing important things for people who vote for us.” Neither Huntsman nor Manchin has officially announced any run – either separately or together – but neither ruled it out, either.

 

“What Say Others?” – Even though West Virginia’s other Senator is a Republican, she and Manchin are close and work together well. Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) West Virginia and Manchin often describe their working relationship as, “like a brother and sister.” Capito is part of a three-generation political dynasty much like the Bushes and the Kennedys. Her dad Arch Moore was a three-term governor, and her son Moore is in the state House of Delegates, and her nephew Riley is the state treasurer. So, she knows politics and I asked her about Manchin’s prospect on a third-party presidential ticket. “Well, I think a third-party candidacy would be very difficult for anybody. And I think they are probably going to New Hampshire to see what the temperature might be in a state, interestingly enough, that probably has a lot of registered independents. You know I can’t really say much more than that, except I hear New Hampshire is really nice this time of year and I hope he has a good time,” Senator Capito said, with a chuckle.

 

“New Hampshire by the Math” – Senator Capito is correct, and with New Hampshire being one of the first primaries, it could be a launching pad for a third-party run. The most recent voter registration numbers in New Hampshire show that 30 percent of registered voters are Republicans, while 28 percent are Democrats. Forty-one percent of voters are unaffiliated. So, an early win here could give a third-party ticket real momentum elsewhere. Senator Manchin sees that as an opening. “How do you bring both parties together and make correct decisions and make good decisions? You can’t do it unless you have a dialogue,” Manchin said.

 

“The Latest New Hampshire Primary Poll” – A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll shows 37 percent backing Trump, with 23 percent backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida. That’s a 14-point advantage, but the previous poll showed Trump up by 20 points. All other GOP candidates were in the single digits.

 

“Other Polls” – It’s early, with a long-playing field ahead, so I don’t put too much credence in polls just yet. Still, they are interesting for chatter. This week’s highly respected Monmouth University poll shows Biden at 47 percent to 40 percent for Trump. Even if there is a Manchin-Huntsman unity ticket on the ballot, Biden still leads Trump 40 percent to 34 percent. Even with a third-party slate polling at about 20 percent, it’s still a “Hail Mary Pass” at this point in time. Again, I realize it’s a moving target and all of this can change on a dime. I’m just talking about one snapshot in time, today!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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